2014-15 Citrus Bowl – Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Missouri Tigers Predictions, Picks, Odds and NCAA Football Betting Preview – January 1, 2015

The New Year’s Six aren’t the only college football bowl games to feature exciting action. The Citrus Bowl will be among those on New Year’s Day that will enthrall fans with an exciting matchup between two ranked teams.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers love to trample their opponents with a strong running game. They also have a tight defense that can cause opponents fits. Coincidentally, the Missouri Tigers also play with an excellent running game and taut defense. Will the Golden Gophers spring a surprise to start the New Year? Or will the Tigers show off their prowess? Read on for our complete preview of this season’s Citrus Bowl.

Angling to earn some money on the College Football Playoff? Check out our complete previews for the Sugar Bowl’s Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide and the Rose Bowl’s Florida State Seminoles vs. Oregon Ducks.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Missouri Tigers – Citrus Bowl Betting Preview

Where: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando

When: Thursday, January 1, 1:00 PM ET

Line: Minnesota Golden Gophers (+6) vs. Missouri Tigers (-6); total 49.0 – view all NCAA Football lines

Betting on the Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Golden Gophers live and die by their rushing offense. They’ve run for 2,695 yards compared to only 1,577 passing yards this season.

[sc:NCAA240banner ]Running back David Cobb has accounted for more than half of Minnesota’s rushing offense. Cobb is ranked 10th in the nation with 1,548 rushing yards. He also leads Minnesota with 13 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Quarterback Mitch Leidner is also more of a running threat than a passing one. Leidner has 462 yards and 10 scores utilizing hit legs, while completing 49 percent of his passes for 1,540 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Minnesota’s pair of running threats in Cobb and Leidner will be licking their chops at the prospect of torching the field at the Citrus Bowl. Minnesota’s opponent, Missouri, has been repeatedly beaten by run-heavy teams this season. Missouri gave up 242 yards rushing against Alabama in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers gave up two more 200-plus rushing yard games in losses to Georgia and Indiana.

The Gophers can also threaten through the air courtesy of tight end Maxx Williams. An All-Big Ten selection, Williams has been difficult to stop this season. Of his 29 catches, 23 have resulted in either a score (seven touchdowns) or a first down. Missouri has allowed an average of 11 passing first downs in its last three games.

But for the Gophers’ offensive game to get going, their defense will have to keep Missouri’s own ground-based offense off the field. Minnesota senior linebacker Damien Wilson spearheads the defense with 111 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss in the season. Wilson also leads Minnesota with four sacks to give the Golden Gophers a great chance at making key stops against the Tigers.

The Golden Gophers defense has also been excellent at creating turnovers this season. They have 15 fumbles recovered and 13 interceptions. However, causing turnovers may be more difficult against Missouri. The Tigers have excelled in ball security this season. Missouri only has 14 turnovers this season (three lost fumbles and 11 interceptions).

The Golden Gophers have lost their last six bowl games dating back to 2005.

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Betting on the Missouri Tigers

The Missouri Tigers made it all the way to the SEC Championship Game for the second straight year. But they fell short once again, this time at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Tigers do have some positives to take from their loss to the Tide. Quarterback Maty Mauk had a big game, passing for 272 yards and a touchdown. Mauk’s production was thanks in large part to wide receiver Jimmie Hunt, who had 169 yards on six catches.

Mauk has been inconsistent this season completing only 52.9 percent of his passes. He finished with 2,551 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’ll be faced with a tough defense to crack against Minnesota, which has allowed just 201.5 passing yards per game this season. However, Mauk may have some success in his passing game if he can pull off convincing play-action passes due to the threat of Missouri’s rushing offense.

Speaking of Missouri’s rushing offense, the Tigers have a pair of capable running backs in Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy. Hansbrough leads the team with 970 yards and nine touchdowns. Meanwhile, Murphy has 767 yards and four scores of his own. They should be able to break away from a Minnesota front seven which has allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri’s defense gets one weapon back in defensive lineman Shane Ray. The redshirt junior was ejected for targeting in Missouri’s loss to Alabama. He’ll be eligible to play in the Citrus Bowl to give Missouri’s defense a boost. Ray has piled up 14 sacks and 21 tackles for loss in the season. He should be a constant threat to keep Minnesota’s Cobb or Leidner in check.

The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Writer’s Prediction

Missouri runs away with the Citrus Bowl trophy. Take the Tigers to cover -6.
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