No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 5 Utah Utes Predictions, Pick and Preview – March Madness Sweet 16 – March 27, 2015

Jahlil Okafor and the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils have been towering over the opposition thus far in the tournament. No one has been able to stop the runaway freight train that is the Duke freshman, who is continuing to strengthen his case as the national player of the year. But Okafor will have to pick on someone his own size in the Sweet 16 against Jakob Poeltl and the Utah Utes.

Utah has bounced back from a bitter end to its Pac-12 season to make its first Sweet 16 in a decade. But can the Utes pull off the big upset over the Blue Devils? Read on as we preview this ACC vs. Pac-12 showdown.

The Pac-12 will be well-represented in the Sweet 16, with Arizona and UCLA also in the mix. Check out our previews of their respective matchups, Arizona vs. Xavier and UCLA vs. Gonzaga.
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March Madness No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 5 Utah Utes Preview

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

When: Friday, March 27, Time TBA

Line: Duke Blue Devils (-5) vs. Utah Utes (+5) – view all March Madness lines

Betting on Duke Blue Devils

Jahlil Okafor is having quite a tournament. The fab freshman has been an unstoppable force inside, scoring 47 total points in the first two rounds against Robert Morris and San Diego State, while shooting a blistering 21-of-27 (78 percent) from the field.

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]The Duke offense (No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency) as a whole has been running as smoothly as ever. The team is shooting 59 percent from the field and 16-of-25 (46 percent) from three. Interestingly, though, the total has gone under in six of Duke’s last seven games.

Led by Okafor’s 26 points, Duke tore a San Diego State team ranked No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency to shreds, 68-49, in the round of 32. Duke led from wire to wire, and it was never truly threatened at any point during the game.

Utah has an equally imposing defense (No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency) that can send not one but two legitimate seven-footers capable of matching up size-wise with Okafor, but Duke’s talented wings will still be tough to handle.

Quinn Cook has been shooting the ball very well, going 9-of-18 from beyond the arc in the tournament thus far, while Justise Winslow has recorded at least 11 rebounds and five assists in each of his two tournament games. Winslow will have the decided edge in athleticism over Utah’s wings, which could allow him to wreak more havoc on the glass.

The X-factor for Duke, however, will be point guard Tyus Jones. The freshman has been a quiet figure offensively, averaging just eight points in his last four games. But he has a knack of stepping up on big occasions averaging 21.3 points in wins over  NCAA tournament teams Wisconsin, Virginia and North Carolina (twice). It could be just a matter of time before he finally makes his presence felt.

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Betting on the Utah Utes

Utah’s Jakob Poeltl is having himself an Okafor-esque tournament run. The seven-foot Polish freshman led the team with 18 points on a perfect 7-of-7 shooting from the field in the Utes’ 57-50 win over a dangerous Stephen F. Austin team. Poeltl then added 12 more points and went 5-of- 6 from the field in their 75-64 win over Georgetown in the round of 32.

Poeltl is finally showing the aggression and consistency on offense that has been missing in his game all year. He’s averaging 14 points in his last five games. But his defensive skills will have to be on point against Duke. He’s one of the few players in the nation with the physical tools to hang with Okafor. He and seven-foot senior Dallin Bachynski should have the size and the bulk to keep Duke’s dominant big man from exploding like he has in the first few games.

Meanwhile, leading scorer Delon Wright (14.7 points per game) will have the two-way responsibility of being the team’s main offensive threat and shadowing Duke’s dangerous Cook on the perimeter. Wright hasn’t gotten going offensively in the tournament just yet, though. He’s scored 23 total points and has shot just 2-of-7 in both tournament games thus far, but he’s gone to the line 18 total times.

With their two most talented stars involved in key defensive battles, the likes of Brandon Taylor and Dakarai Tucker will be vital in providing the Utes some added offense. Taylor led the team in scoring with 14 points against Georgetown, and exploded with 24 in their 67-64 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament semifinal. Meanwhile, Tucker has been a consistent weapon off the Utah bench, with at least nine points in each of his last three games.

The total has gone under in seven of Utah’s last 10 games.

Writer’s Prediction

Duke (-5) has the superior talent and it finds a way to deliver the win and cover. Furthermore, take the total in this game to go under.
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