2015 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Predictions and Preview

Fans dig the long ball. This coming July 13, they are going to see the mother of all home run contests as some of the fiercest and most powerful hitters in the majors today will converge at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the 2015 MLB Home Run Derby. Who will emerge as the new Home Run Derby champion? Let’s take a brief look at the eight participants of the event.

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Predictions for MLB Home Run Derby 2015

New Rules Primer

Before giving you the lo down on the participants, here’s a brief primer on the tweaked Home Run Derby rules:

Bracket format

[sc:MLB240banner ]The Home Run Derby will still feature the March Madness-style single-elimination bracket format that pairs up the eight participants. The seedings were determined by home runs totals as of July 7. Here’s the finalized bracket:

Obviously, the sluggers who hit the most homers in each matchup will advance to the next round until a champion is crowned. In the event of a tie, there will be a 90-second swing off. If a winner still isn’t determined by then, there will be successive three-swing swing offs until a winner is determined.

Five-Minute Timer

Speaking of time, the Derby will now have a time limit of five minutes per batter for each round, which begins when the first pitch is thrown. That timer will stop after home runs are hit within the final minute of the round. The timer won’t start again until the batter hits a ball that isn’t a home run, or swings and misses a pitch.

Bonus Time

Participants also have a chance to earn bonus time in each round if they hit a certain number of home runs for a certain distance by the end of their round. Here’s the bonus time table:

All good with the rules? Great! Time to break down the eight participants, starting with the favorites.

Favorites: Albert Pujols, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson

Albert Pujols is still nasty at age 35. Despite being on the wrong side of 30, Pujols remains one of the premier sluggers in the league. He leads the American League with 26 homers, which earned him the No. 1 seed due to Giancarlo Stanton’s absence. But aside from his power, Pujols’ apparent familiarity of the Great American Ball Park is what makes him an even more dangerous man in the Derby.

Throughout his career, Pujols has crushed 20 long balls in 71 games at the Reds’ ballpark. 68 of those games came during his first 11 seasons in the league when he was still in the NL Central playing for the Cards.

Behind Pujols in the seedings, meanwhile, is Cincinnati’s own Todd Frazier. Frazier reached the final round of the Derby last year but was defeated by Yoenis Cespedes. But with Cespedes out and a home atmosphere going in his favor, the Reds’ third baseman may just be the man to come out on top in the end of the competition.

See, 59 of Frazier’s career 98 homers have been sent flying into the stands of the Great American Ball Park. His inclusion in the 2015 Derby also comes at a time when he’s currently having the best season of his five-year career. With already 25 homers in just 81 games this season, Frazier is virtually assured of crushing his previous career-best of 29 jacks in a season, which he did in 2013.

Rounding up the top three seeds in the Derby is Toronto’s home run masher, Josh Donaldson. Like Frazier, Donaldson took part in the event last year, when he hit just three homers before bombing out in the very first round. Hopefully for Donaldson, this year will be a more successful one.

The Blue Jays third baseman enters Thursday’s matchup with the White Sox with a team-best 21 home runs, good also for fourth overall in the AL. But since he’s played his entire career in the AL, he’s not that accustomed playing in Cincy. He’s played just two games at Great American Ball Park, though he did hit one homer there back in 2013.

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Sleepers: Joc Pederson, Manny Machado, Anthony Rizzo

While the top three seeds are composed of veterans, the players seeded No. 4-6, on the other hand, are eager youngsters, who are out to prove that they can also smoke balls out of the park in rapid succession. One of them is No. 4 Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers’ rookie is having a blast this season. The 23-year-old outfielder leads the Dodgers with 20 home runs, which is also the most ever by a Dodger rookie before the All-Star break. In the first round of the Derby, Pederson will square off with No. 5 Manny Machado of the Orioles.

Machado is looking to accomplish what fellow Orioles Chris Davis and Adam Jones had failed to do in the past couple of years: bring the Derby title to Baltimore. If he brings the same kind of power he has shown over the last few weeks, then expect Machado to make things interesting against Pederson. Since June, the Orioles third baseman has smashed 10 home runs, which includes the five moonshots he hit over his last five games.

Although he has hit 11 of his 19 homers to date this season at hitter-friendly Camden Yards, that shouldn’t deter people from betting on Machado. For one, the Great American Ballpark is also great for sluggers like Machado, as evidenced by the high average of 1.4 HR/G hit there this season.

No. 6 Anthony Rizzo, meanwhile, will find himself matched up against Donaldson in the first round. Rizzo is a big reason why the Cubs are having a good season so far.

He leads the team in almost all offensive categories, including batting average (.296), on-base percentage (.408), and hits (90).  On top of it all, Rizzo is also tops in the Cubs lineup in homers with 16. Although 16 homers is way off the top mark in the NL, Rizzo should draw confidence from the fact that he’s more familiar playing at Cincy’s home than Donaldson. Rizzo has played 23 games at the Great American Ball Park, wherein he has crushed six homers.

Others: Prince Fielder and Kris Bryant

Cespedes may not be in the Derby, but No. 7 Prince Fielder assures everyone that there would be a two-time champion taking part in the event. Fielder can be considered a seasoned veteran when it comes to playing in the Derby, as he has already played in five editions. That includes the 2009 and 2012 Derbies, which he both won.

The rotund home run hitter, however, has just 13 homers this season. Perhaps a trip to one of his “favorite” parks is all he needs to find his terrifying power again. Fielder has played 52 career games in Cincy, mashing 12 homers while coming up with an impressive .320 batting average.

Completing the Derby field is another Cub in the form of rookie Kris Bryant. Bryant has the unenviable position in the event, as his No. 8 seed means that he’ll be matched up against Pujols. Still, don’t sleep on Bryant. The 23-year-old slugger took some time to find his power in the big leagues, as he was unable to hit a homer in his first 21 games. But once he got it going, the rest of the majors saw why Bryant was dubbed as the next great thing in baseball. So far this season, Bryant has 12 home runs and a .478 SLG.

Writer’s Prediction

Prince Fielder win and collects his third Home Run Derby title.
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