Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers American League Division Series Predictions, Picks and Preview

For the first time since winning the World Series in 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the MLB playoffs. The Blue Jays made their return to October baseball on the strength of their big bats, which were simply unmatched throughout the season. The trade for a certain left-handed ace didn’t hurt, either.

Will those hot bats translate against the AL West champion Texas Rangers, who are also back in World Series contention after trading for a lefty ace of their own? Let’s get a complete sense of the different factors that will affect how this ALDS plays out by analyzing each team’s hitting and pitching situations heading into the series.

Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our Blue Jays vs. Rangers Game 1 preview, as well as our comprehensive preview of the Mets vs. Dodgers NLDS.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers Series Preview

Series Schedule

Game 1 – Thursday, October 8, 3:30 PM ET, Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays – view all MLB lines

Game 2 – Friday, October 9, 12:45 PM ET, Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

Game 3 – Sunday, October 11, 8:10 PM ET, Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

*Game 4 – Monday, October 12, Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

*Game 5 – Wednesday, October 14, Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

*If necessary

Betting on the Toronto Blue Jays

Despite sealing just their first playoff appearance in over two decades, the Blue Jays bandwagon is all filled up, and with good reason. On paper, this is one loaded Toronto team that looks well worth its -250 price to get past the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, and its overall favorite status at +350 to win the World Series.

[sc:MLB240banner ]Everyone knows all about Toronto’s outstanding offense, which led the MLB this season in total runs (891), home runs (232) and OPS (.797). The Blue Jays scored 127 more runs than the second-place Yankees, which is about as much as the gap between the Yankees and the 27th-placed Phillies.

Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion (120 HRs, 348 RBIs combined) are the scariest 2-3-4 hitters in the entire playoffs. Catcher Russell Martin had a career-high 23 home runs this season. Troy Tulowitzki, a two-time Silver Slugger at shortstop who’s only recently recovered from a shoulder injury, could be only the fourth or fifth most dangerous hitter, which only underscores how potent this lineup is.

However, the two stud arms of David Price and Marcus Stroman are what could take Toronto over the top. Price, the Game 1 starter, has been every bit the ace the Blue Jays expected when they traded for him, as he went 9-1 (5-0 in September) with a 2.30 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 11 starts.

Game 2 starter Stroman has been just as good since his speedy return from a torn ACL. He went a perfect 4-0 in four starts in September with a 1.67 ERA.

Marco Estrada, who could be pitching for the series in Game 3, has been the staff’s most consistent starter with a 3.13 ERA and 131 strikeouts. The bullpen, composed primarily of Aaron Sanchez, Brett Cecil and 20-year-old closer Robert Osuna, has been solid (Toronto was 12th in bullpen ERA), but they might not be much of a factor if the offense and top-end pitching perform up to their abilities.

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Betting on the Texas Rangers

With such a tight battle in the AL West/AL wild card, the Texas Rangers were no lock to enter the playoffs. But they’re in (and are +190 underdogs to oust the Jays), thanks in large part to the trade they struck to get Cole Hamels.

The former Phillies ace took very little time to turn into Texas’s top starter. After struggling in his first two outings, Hamels went 7-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his next 10 starts. The Rangers won all 10 of those games.

However, the rest of the Rangers rotation gets a lot more uncertain after Hamels, who will only start in Game 2. Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and Derek Holland have all suffered bouts of inconsistency this season. Take Game 1 starter Gallardo’s ERA per month (from June to September): 0.54, 5.46, 1.98, 4.85.

With so much uncertainty with the starters, don’t be surprised to see the Rangers bullpen log a lot of innings in this series. Shawn Tolleson, Keone Kela and co. had the best bullpen ERA in the league from Sept. 1 onwards, but they’ll be hard-pressed to keep the Jays’ juggernaut offense quiet for too long.

A lot has been made of the Toronto’s top offense, but Texas was one of the best of the rest. The Rangers finished third with 751 runs, as they rode the big bat of Prince Fielder. The slugger led the team in the Triple Crown categories (.305 BA, 23 HRs, 98 RBIs) this season, with Mitch Moreland, Shin-Soo Choo and Adrian Beltre all chipping in with stellar seasons.

The Rangers bats will have to raise their game to another level if they want to keep pace with the Jays. Texas was outscored 34-21 in six games against Toronto in the regular season.

Writer’s Prediction

Toronto just has too many weapons that can score too many runs for Hamels and Fielder to handle. The Blue Jays (-250) take the series in four.
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