Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros American League Division Series Predictions, Picks and Preview

The Kansas City Royals rode a wild-card win all the way to the AL pennant last season. This season, they continued their franchise revival by winning the AL Central title. Their reward for that first division crown in 30 years is a matchup with this year’s wild-card, the Houston Astros. Can the Astros be this year’s Cinderella story and pull off the big upset over the Royals?

They’re already one-third of the way there with a Game 1 win. Check out our preview for Game 2 of the series here. Then, read on below as we break down both teams and determine how the rest of this American League division series plays out.
[sc:MLBArticles ]
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros Series Preview

Series Schedule

Game 1 – Thursday, October 8, Texas Rangers 5 at Toronto Blue Jays 2

Game 2 – Friday, October 9, 3:45 PM ET, Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays – view all MLB lines

Game 3 – Sunday, October 11, 4:10 PM ET, Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

*Game 4 – Monday, October 12, 1:07 PM ET, Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

*Game 5 – Wednesday, October 14, 8:07 PM ET, Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

*If necessary

Betting on the Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were the rank underdogs heading into the playoffs last season. That won’t be the case this year, as the Royals ran away with the AL Central with 95 wins, and will enter as favorites to start their AL championship defense against the Astros.

[sc:MLB240banner ]Kansas City’s M.O. hasn’t changed; it still doesn’t rely on the long ball (it hit just 139 this year, 24th in the MLB). But the Royals can put the bat on the ball – they tied for second in batting average (.269) – which helped them jump up to seventh in runs (724).

The likes of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, who broke out in last year’s playoffs, either matched or surpassed their career highs in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Meanwhile, the addition of Kendrys Morales (.290, 22 HRs, 106 RBIs) in place of Billy Butler added more pop in that lineup.

The defense remains terrific, and arguably got better with the addition of Ben Zobrist at second. That defense was a major reason for the Royals pitching staff finishing No. 3 in team ERA (3.67).

The starting pitching hasn’t been outstanding, though. Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura, the likely starters for Games 3 and 4 (if necessary), are the team’s leaders in wins (13 each) and ERA, but Volquez’s ERA is just 3.55 while Ventura’s is only 4.08 (although it did improve to 3.10 after almost being sent to the minors).

Johnny Cueto, the Game 2 starter who the Royals were counting on to be their ace after trading for him from Cincinnati, has been anything but. He’s just 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA over 13 starts as a Royal.

The Royals’ bullpen, which led all of baseball with a 2.72 ERA, remains formidable with Wade Davis (17 saves, 0.94 ERA), Ryan Madsen and Kelvin Herrera. But the loss of closer Greg Holland could turn out to be huge, especially since they might need a lot of innings from the pen due to their shaky starters.

Betting on the Houston Astros

With two wins in their first two playoff games, the Houston Astros are now just two wins away from reaching their first ever ALCS.

In their wins over the Yankees in the wild-card game and their Game 1 win over Kansas City, the Astros displayed the strengths that got them back in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years: home runs and solid pitching.

The Astros have hit four homers in those two games after hitting 230 in the regular season (just two behind the Blue Jays). Meanwhile, their one-two punch of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, who led the AL with 20 and 19 wins, respectively, each gave six solid innings while the bullpen sealed the deal. The Astros pitching staff had a 3.57 ERA, easily the best in the American League.

Game 3 starter Scott Kazmir is 7-11 with a 3.10 ERA, but has just a 4.17 ERA in 13 games since coming over from the Athletics. The Astros have gone just 5-8 in Kazmir’s starts.

Keuchel will take the mound for a potential clinching Game 3, and he’ll be pitching at home, where he’s 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 18 home starts. McHugh or Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22 ERA) could be called upon for Game 4.

If the Astros can continue capitalizing on the Royals’ wobbly starting pitching, as they did in Game 1 when they jumped on Ventura for three runs in two innings, they will be well on course for an upset.

Writer’s Prediction

The Astros’ superior pitching and power allow them to pull off the shock 3-1 series win over the Royals. Create a betting account now and cash in on some big upsets in the MLB playoffs.
[sc:MLB490banner ]

1,839 total views,  1 views today