NFC North Win Total Predictions: 2015-16 NFL Season

The NFC North has been dominated by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers for the last half-decade. This season is expected to play out the same way, with the Packers looking set for yet another double-digit-win season. But can anyone among the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, or Minnesota Vikings rise above their modest expectations and challenge the mighty Packers for division supremacy?

Let’s take a look at how each of the four teams in the division fared during the offseason, and find out whether they can live up or down to their projected over/under regular season wins.

Meanwhile, see how the biggest offseason moves have affected teams’ Super Bowl odds to start the season in our 2015 NFL Odds Update.
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2015 NFL NFC North Regular Season Wins Preview

Green Bay Packers

2014 Record: 12-4

Over/Under Wins: 11.0 – view all NFL regular season win totals

The Green Bay Packers fell agonizingly short of reaching the Super Bowl last season. But Packers management nevertheless decided to bring the band back together for another run this year. They re-signed right tackle Bryan Bulaga and receiver Randall Cobb in the offseason and made up for the loss of a couple of veteran cornerbacks through the draft.

[sc:NFL240banner ]With the core of a Super Bowl-caliber team – one led by 2014 regular season MVP Aaron Rodgers – still intact, the Packers are once again big -300 favorites to win their fifth-straight NFC North title.

The Packers’ toughest non-division games will be against Seattle in Week 2, Denver in Week 8 and Dallas in Week 14. But they will be at home for the big rematches against the Seahawks and Cowboys. And with Peyton Manning’s declining form at the tail end of last season, their road game in Denver might not be as tough a game for Green Bay.

Basically, though, it boils down to Rodgers. When he’s on, so are the Packers. They’ve won 11 or more games in four of the last five seasons when he’s been fully healthy.

Prediction: OVER 11.0 wins

Detroit Lions

2014 Record: 11-5

Over/Under Wins: 8.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals

The Detroit Lions finally returned to the playoffs last season, but the dominant defensive line that played a large part in getting them there was severely weakened in the offseason. Ndamukong Suh left for Miami, and they opted not to re-sign Nick Fairley.

But while that line remains solid after they traded for Haloti Ngata to play alongside Ziggy Ansah and Jason Jones, it’s doubtful whether they can once again have the No. 1-ranked run defense via DVOA without Suh.

That puts even more pressure on Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense to bounce back from last season’s disappointing campaign. Detroit averaged just 20.1 points per game (22nd in the NFL) and was a middling 19th in offensive efficiency via DVOA.

The Lions’ schedule this season is littered with some very tough road games at San Diego (Week 1), Seattle (Week 4), Kansas City (Week 8) and St. Louis (Week 14). Detroit will also play Philadelphia at home in Week 12. Add in two games against the Packers and the Adrian Peterson-led Vikings, and it looks like the Lions and their diminished defense will struggle winning more than half their games this season.

Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins

Minnesota Vikings

2014 Record: 7-9

Over/Under Wins: 7.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals

The Minnesota Vikings improved by two wins last season, their first under rookie head coach Mike Zimmer. They managed this with a rookie quarterback starting for majority of the season and without former MVP and star running back Adrian Peterson leading the offense.

After some uncertainty about his future, Peterson is back with the Vikes this year, which should only help an offense that struggled at times without him. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater should also see some improvement in his sophomore season after a promising rookie campaign.

The Vikings will have the advantage of being at home for most of their toughest non-division matchups against the Chargers (Week 3), Chiefs (Week 6) and Seahawks (Week 13). They also have a handful of very winnable road games against the 49ers (Week 1), Raiders (Week 10) and Falcons (Week 12).

It’s a very workable schedule overall for the Vikings, one that should see them continue their upward trend.

Prediction: OVER 7.5 wins

Chicago Bears

2014 Record: 5-11

Over/Under Wins: 7.0 – view all NFL regular season win totals

Another wildly disappointing season in 2014 – one which saw the Bears finish dead last in the division – sparked some signficant changes in Chicago. Head coach Marc Trestman and his staff is gone, with John Fox taking his place. Fox also brought on his old Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase, as well as former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

Fangio’s arrival will be huge in repairing a Bears defense that ranked just 28th overall via DVOA last season. He’ll have plenty of new pieces to work with due to the arrival of Jarvis Jenkins, Sam Acho, Antrell Rolle, Alan Ball and second-round pick Eddie Goldman.

Gase, meanwhile, will try to coax the best out of their perennially underachieving quarterback Jay Cutler, who will have rookie wideout Kevin White taking the place of the departed Brandon Marshall on the outside.

The last time Fox took over a new job, he led the Broncos to a four-win improvement and a playoff berth in 2011 – with Tim Tebow at quarterback. But that was in a weak AFC West; the NFC North this year is much stronger, which the Bears will witness firsthand.

Prediction: UNDER 7.0 wins

Writer’s Prediction

The Packers win the division for the fifth straight year by going 13-3. The Vikings go 9-7, the Lions go 8-8 while the Bears remain last at 6-10. Create a betting account now and start wagering on NFL futures today.
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