NFL Insider Picks and Predictions for the 2016-17 Season

The 2016 NFL regular season hasn’t even started, but dominoes are already falling. (Sorry, Vikings fans.) But if things break the way they are more or less expected to, there are bound to be some teams who dominate, overachieve, and disappoint. Let’s get the inside scoop on the teams most likely to fit those descriptions for this upcoming NFL season.

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2016 NFL Insider Predictions and Picks

Why the Green Bay Packers will dominate

There’s really no rocket science to this. The Packers will dominate this year a) because they have the best quarterback in the league, Aaron Rodgers, and b) they have a cupcake of a schedule.

Rodgers’ stats were down across the board last season, and a large factor in that dip was the absence of his top target, Jordy Nelson. That pushed Randall Cobb and Davante Adams into roles they weren’t suited/ready for. It also didn’t help that Eddie Lacy laid a humongous egg (which he then ate, along with about a dozen more).

With Nelson’s return, the passing game – and the offense as a whole – should return to that sweet spot it was in back in 2014, when the Packers went 12-4 and had the most prolific offense in the league. Rodgers won his second MVP that year, and is the big +500 favorite to win his third this season.

And as for the schedule, the Packers project to have the softest in the entire NFL. It just got a whole lot easier with their top division rival – the Minnesota Vikings – losing their starting quarterback for the year. The Packers also face the AFC South and by far their toughest game of the season against the Seahawks will be at Lambeau.

Their toughest road game, meanwhile, will likely be at either Atlanta or Washington, and neither of those teams is guaranteed to be good. Barring a Rodgers injury, this Packers team should be a mortal lock for at least double-digit wins.

Why the Houston Texans will overachieve

It’s never a good idea to put too much stock in preseason, but here goes anyway: Brock Osweiler has looked pretty good so far. He was Pro Football Focus’ top quarterback performer in Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals, as he completed 11 of 13 attempts for 146 yards.  Considering the Texans won nine games last season with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, and Brandon Weeden all taking snaps, even a slight upgrade in that position would be huge.

But that’s not the only upgrade the Texans made. Running back Lamar Miller was a savvy pick-up, and figures to finally have a breakout year after years of misuse in Miami. DeAndre Hopkins made that leap last year, and should only get better with a competent quarterback. Rookie Will Fuller is a downfield bomb waiting to explode.

And of course, the defense remains outstanding with J.J. Watt anchoring the line. The Texans were third in percentage of opponents’ drives that ended in a score (27.3 percent), fourth in Total QBR allowed (44.0) and tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (5.0). They also topped the league with in third down conversion percentage allowed (28.5 percent).

The Texans’ over/under regular season wins is slated at 8.5, although they will have a first-place schedule which includes the Patriots (without Brady) and Packers on the road, and the Bengals in Week 16. But as things stand, they have all the tools to make it back-to-back division titles.

Why the Washington Redskins will disappoint

Give last year’s Redskins credit; they took full advantage of a wide-open NFC East and claimed the division crown. Kirk Cousins was excellent at quarterback, as they proved their critics wrong. But with that success come much higher expectations this season, ones they won’t figure to meet.

For one, it’s still tough to put complete faith in Cousins. Remember, this was the quarterback who was turning the ball at a historic rate – at one point, over once every 29 plays – before putting in his career year. The Redskins weren’t prepared to commit to him with a long-term deal after that great year, and bettors shouldn’t either.

Cousins should have some very good receiving talent at his disposal, but there are question marks just about everywhere else on the team – running backs, the offensive and defensive lines, and linebackers. The secondary has a chance to be good, but then they’ll be counting on another player who had a belated career year – Josh Norman – to live up to his huge contract outside the corner-friendly confines of Carolina’s defense.

With the Cowboys’ Tony Romo injured again and the Eagles still in some disarray, the division is once again right there for the taking. But don’t say you weren’t warned when Washington comes up short this time around.

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