2016 Kentucky Derby Expert Sleeper Picks and Predictions

It’s time for some pony action when the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby kicks off at Churchill Downs this weekend. We have some of the best thoroughbred horses all vying for a chance at immortality starting with the Run for the Roses. It’s the first of three races that could award just the 13th Triple Crown since 1919.

Horse racing may be different to decipher, especially lacking a standout talent like last year’s American Pharoah. But here are some experts to help you in picking some of the best high-value sleepers on the market. Read on and find which colt you fancy through our collection of experts’ picks.

For more on the Kentucky Derby, check out our expert picks and predictions as well as our horse and jockey analysis.

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Expert | Sleeper Picks for the Kentucky Derby
Steve Silverman | Suddenbreakingnews, My Man Sam, Creator

Steve Silverman is on to a trio of sleepers heading into the Run for the Roses this Saturday. He’s got Suddenbreakingnews (+1,600), My Man Sam (+1,800) and Creator (+1,200) as possible derby winners thanks to their own strengths.

Suddenbreakingnews has the pedigree to win this race. His sire is Mineshaft, who was named 2003 Horse of the Year for distances of 1 ¼ miles. Suddenbreakingnews won the Southwest Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths, but followed that with bad outings in the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Nevertheless, he still has three wins and four second-place finishes in eight starts.

My Man Sam hasn’t raced too much, which could give him plenty in the tank to turn some heads at the Kentucky Derby. He has one victory and two-second place finishes to his credit. He finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 9 after drawing a post on the far outside. My Man Sam is a deep stretch runner with the ability to turn it on in the final 200 yards and pass horses. As long as he doesn’t get caught up in traffic, he should be a solid sleeper to steal this race.

Creator is a sleeper with as much a chance to win as the favorites. He’s coming off a very impressive Arkansas Derby. He was left in the gate at the start, but jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. helped keep him calm before they eventually got the victory. Creator is a closer; he’ll make his move at the final stretch for a possible victory.

The Derby Handicapper

Expert | Sleeper Picks for the Kentucky Derby
Michael J. Cox | Destin, Mor Spirit, Outwork, Brody’s Cause, Danzing Candy, Gun Runner, Sudden Breaking news

Michael J. Cox first lists the favorites Nyquist (+275) and Exaggerator (+450) in his Kentucky Derby contender rankings, but immediately jumps into giving his thoughts on his top three sleepers: Destin (+1,000), Mor Spirit (+650), Outwork (+1,000).

Destin is the first of three sleepers Cox has at the top of his list. He set a track record of 1:42.82 in the Tampa Bay Derby for a good 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s the full brother to Creative Cause, who finished fifth at the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes in 2012. He’s had plenty of rest with eight weeks of training. He should be a fresh and dangerous horse in the derby.

Mor Spirit has never finished below second place in his seven career starts. He’s heading into the Run for the Roses on the heels of a win at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and a pair of second place finishes at the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. His running style is best suited for dry, fast tracks, which could put him at a disadvantage should it rain on derby day.

Outwork is a half-brother to derby favorite Nyquist, but finds himself as a sleeper for the Run for the Roses. He’s never raced further than six furlongs in his career. But he’s a winner, most recently finishing first in the Wood Memorial. He has won two of his last three starts, finishing the other second. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who was the trainer for the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner.

ABC News

Expert | Sleeper Picks for the Kentucky Derby
Beth Harris | Gun Runner, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit

Beth Harris is giving out five horses to watch heading into the Kentucky Derby this weekend. The usual suspects are there with Exaggerator and Nyquist, but Harris adds a trio of sleepers in her feature.

Gun Runner topped the Derby leaderboard with 151 points earned in prep races. He has four wins in five career starts, including the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star.

Next up is Mohaymen, who snapped a five-race winning streak in the Florida Derby when he finished fourth behind Nyquist. Mohaymen has some serious mojo heading into the Run for the Roses. His blood line includes Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

Mor Spirit also piqued Harris’ interest due to his trainer, Bob Baffert. The Hall of Fame trainer has been responsible for four Derby victories. The most recent of those victories was by American Pharoah, who went on to win the Triple Crown last year. Another Hall of Famer is on the Mor Spirit team with Gary Stevens riding the colt for the race. Stevens has three Derby wins, but the last of which came in 1997.

Create a betting account now and get ready for the Run for the Roses. It’s going to be one hell of an event with a potential for massive payouts.

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