MLB All-Star Game Home Run Derby Predictions, Picks and Preview

A band of powerful dudes head to the Petco Park this Monday as Mark Trumbo, Giancarlo Stanton, and six others sluggers vie for the 2016 Home Run Derby. Following the success of last year’s Derby won by Todd Frazier, fans expect more fireworks this time. With that said, let’s now look at the Derby’s favorites, sleepers, and a long shot.

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2016 MLB Home Run Derby Preview

Favorites: Giancarlo Stanton, Mark Trumbo

Stanton (+300) is expected to be a popular pick for bettors in this event. Everybody knows the kind of power this Miami slugger has and the Derby is just the perfect avenue for him to display that. He competed in the 2014 Derby, wherein he reached the third round.

While Stanton is just 16th in the majors with 20 homers as of this writing, he has picked up the pace this month with five taters to his name. He has five career home runs at Petco Park in 48 at-bats to go with a .667 slugging percentage.

Trumbo (+350), on the other hand, has been a man possessed this year. After a letdown 2014 season in which he recorded just nine home runs while playing for Arizona, Trumbo has clearly recovered his power, blasting 22 homers in 2015 and 28 so far this season. Of course it helps that Camden Yards is a hitter-friendly park but, it’s not as accommodating to sluggers as Petco Park.

Sleepers: Wil Myers, Todd Frazier

Myers, the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year, has hit 13 of his 19 homers this season at Petco Park and is coming off a smoking 11-homer June that strengthened his candidacy to join the Derby. If anything, Myers (+600) has home-field advantage in the Derby with it taking place in San Diego. Remember that last year, then-Reds third baseman Todd Frazier (+500) won the event in Cincinnati.

Speaking of Frazier, the defending Derby champion will try to make it two in a row this time. He’s not playing as well this year, though, as he had in 2015 as evidenced by his poor .215 batting average thus far this season. But hey, he already has 25 homers in the first half, so power obviously remains there for the White Sox slugger.

Long Shot: Carlos Gonzalez

Gonzalez is definitely enjoying hitting in Colorado. The Rockies outfielder hit 40 home runs last season and is on pace to hit close to that mark again this year with 19 blasts this year already. It doesn’t feel right to call him a long shot, but relatively speaking, Gonzalez’s +800 odds to win are pretty high. Regardless, CarGo is a must-watch in the event as he can be a pretty streaky hitter. He smashed a homer in four-straight games back in May.

Prediction

Todd Frazier (+500) successfully defends his title.

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