Lithuania vs. Croatia – Rio 2016 Olympics Men’s Basketball – Group B Predictions and Betting Preview – August 15, 2016

Lithuania vs. Croatia Men’s Basketball Preview

Where: Carioca Arena 1 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

When: Monday, August 15, 9:30 PM ET

Line: Lithuania (-5.5) vs. Croatia (+5.5); total 152.5 – view all men’s Olympic basketball lines

TV Broadcast: NBCOlympics.com

Writer’s Pick: Croatia to cover (+5.5)

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Betting on Lithuania (-5.5)

The Lithuanians’ unbeaten run in Rio came to a crashing end as Spain smashed them by 50 points. The Lithuanian offense which had averaged 84 points over the first three games had just 59 points against the Spaniards and shot only 40 percent from the field. Meanwhile, the Spanish big men simply tore Lithuania’s bigs apart, as Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic combined for 40 points.

On the bright side, Mantas Kalnietis and Mindaugas Kuzminskas have maintained their hot shooting touch. Kalnietis had 16 points against Spain, keeping up his streak of scoring at least 16 points in each of his four group games. Meanwhile, Kuzminskas has discovered the hot hand, averaging 20 points in his last two.

Those two should have the firepower to match Croatia’s elite perimeter scorer. However, it remains to be seen if the team can get more production from NBA big men Jonas Valanciunas and Domantas Sabonis. The team’s starting frontcourt has averaged just nine points combined in their last two games, with Valanciunas going scoreless against Spain.

Betting on Croatia (+5.5)

Croatia squandered a golden opportunity to take a major step toward quarterfinal qualification as it fell 90-76 to Nigeria, the weakest team in Group B. It now faces a must-win game against Lithuania to secure passage – and to avoid the U.S. – in the next round.

Bojan Bogdanovic delivered once again with 28 points against Nigeria. His teammates, though, combined to go just 18-of-50 (36 percent) from the field. The Croatians will need another big game from Bogdanovic against Lithuania, which isn’t too much to expect. The Brooklyn Nets wing is the leading scorer in this tournament, averaging 25.5 points and shooting 52.5 percent through four games.

Dario Saric is the team’s next leading scorer with 11.5 points, although he had just seven points against Nigeria. Saric, though, has a good shot at a bounce-back game against the Lithuanians. The Philadelphia 76ers forward averaged 17 points and 8.5 rebounds against Argentina and Brazil, and has the versatility to dominate his matchup with Domantas Sabonis, who struggles guarding along the perimeter.

Meanwhile, 6-foot-5 guard Roko Ukic has the length and the defensive tenacity to give Kalnietis his biggest defensive challenge of the tournament to date.

Writer’s Prediction

Saric gives Croatia a much-needed second scorer behind Bogdanovic as Croatia manages to cover as +5.5 underdogs.

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