2017 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Predictions, Picks and Preview

The 2017 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby should be fun. Giancarlo Stanton returns to defend his crown, which he won in dominant fashion last year. However, he faces the stiff challenge of a couple of powerful rookies led by AL MVP candidate Aaron Judge. Which slugger comes out on top? Read on below as we preview five of the top contenders to watch out for in this year’s derby.

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Giancarlo Stanton (+140)

The mighty Giancarlo Stanton returns to defend his home run derby crown. The Marlins slugger blew away his competition last season as he launched 61 homers in total, including 24 in a dazzling first round and 20 in the final.

The usually injury-prone Stanton has been very healthy this season. He will come into this year’s competition with 26 homers—on pace for a career-high 48 dingers—and is third in slugging percentage on fastballs in the middle-third of the zone. He’ll also have home-field advantage at Marlins Park, so he should be a worthy favorite to defend his title.

Aaron Judge (+160)

The hottest name in baseball today, Judge is expected to give the defending champ Stanton a run for his money. The rookie Bronx Bomber has a league-leading 30 homers, and has already broken Joe DiMaggio’s single-season Yankees rookie home run record of 29 homers before the All-Star break.

There’s some concern as to how Judge reacts to the pressure of expectations that will be placed on him in the derby, but the rookie hasn’t been fazed thus far, so why should he start now?

Sleepers

Cody Bellinger (+700)

Judge’s brilliance has somewhat taken away from Bellinger’s similarly breath-taking rookie campaign. But this could be just the opportunity for him to get one over on Judge. The Dodgers slugger knows a thing or two about getting hot. He has mashed 25 homers in 69 games, which includes a sizzling streak of 10 homers in 10 games earlier in the season.

Bellinger’s success has in large part been because of his ability to hit fly balls. Nearly half of the balls Bellinger has put in play are fly balls, which could give him an edge during the derby.

Miguel Sano (+800)

Sano may have just the fifth-most homers among the eight-person derby field with 20, but the Twin packs some serious power with his bat, especially when it comes to derby-quality pitches. He’s ranked first among the eight participants in both slugging percentage against slow fastballs as well as fastballs in the middle of the plate. His ability to hit those types of pitches could make him a serious contender during the derby.

Long Shot

Justin Bour (+1,800)

Stanton won’t be the only one who will be enjoying some home-field advantage in the derby. His teammate Justin Bour is having a career year, and his 20 home runs are already just three shy of his career high of 23, which he needed 129 games to get.

However, one big knock on Bour is that he doesn’t seem to have the swing conducive to the derby. Only 35.4 percent of his balls in play are fly balls, which could make it hard for him to consistently go yard. But his power is such that he should still be a worthwhile play despite him having the worst odds among the eight participants.

Writer’s Prediction

Stanton (+140) outduels Judge in the final to successfully defend his home run derby title.

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