2018 Kentucky Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds and Preview

On May 5, the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby will kick off, which means now is a high time to check on the horses likely to break out of the gates in Churchill Downs. Let’s take a look below at some favorites, sleepers, and long shots, along with their respective backgrounds to help you make a more informed pick going into a big day in horse racing.

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Betting Preview for the 2018 Kentucky Derby on May 5, 2018 at Churchill Downs Race Track

Favorites: Justify / Bolt D’oro

Justify (+250) – Justify is the horse to watch out in the upcoming Kentucky Derby. With the shortest price of +250 to win part one of this year’s Triple Crown, Justify has a lot to live up to.  Justify is lightly raced, and if fresh legs matter in such a big-time race, then this three-year-old colt has a set of them. Justify has only raced in three race before, and has won all of them. In his first and only graded stakes race, Justify smoked the competition in the Santa Anita Derby on Apr. 7. Justify is trained by Bob Baffert, who has produced four Kentucky Derby winners before, the most recent being American Pharoah in 2015 – the last winner of the Triple Crown.

Bolt D’oro (+350) – Bolt D’oro, meanwhile, is right behind Justify on the betting board with odds of +350 to finish first in Churchill Downs. The colt was also behind Justify literally in the aforementioned Santa Anita Derby, finishing second in the race, giving the Mick Ruis-trained horse its sixth race in which it showed. In fact, Bolt D’oro has not finished worse than third since it began racing last year. Bolt D’oro will be ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza.

High-value Sleeper: Promises Fulfilled (+4,000)

Promises Fulfilled was coming off a catastrophic ninth-place finish in the Florida Derby late last month which eroded some of the excitement for this horse. Had that not happened, Promises Fulfilled would probably be enjoying odds way shorter than his current +4,000 price designation.  Prior to the Florida Derby, Promises Fulfilled had won three of four races, finishing in the podium in all of them. Promises Fulfilled is trained by Dale L. Romans, whose horses have 27 wins and 80 top-three finishes in 143 starts this year.

Long Shot: Blended Citizen (+10,000)

It’s going to be easy for Blended Citizen to blend in Kentucky, as the three-year-old colt is from Kentucky. That aside, Blended Citizen boasts of a lone win so far with it topping the Jeff Ruby Steaks Grade 3 race on Mar. 17. After that, he went fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 2). Blended Citizen is priced +10,000 to win in Churchill Downs, and traces its lineage to Proud Citizen, who, once upon a time, finished runner-up in the Kentucky Derby (2002) and third in the Preakness Stakes.

Writer’s Prediction

Justify will justify his status as the odds on favorite, and will trot away with a Kentucky Derby title.

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