2021 Kentucky Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview

It’s Triple Crown season again, ladies and gentlemen. It’s time to check out which horses to watch out for in the upcoming 2021 Kentucky Derby. Which horse will win the first leg of the Triple Crown and at Churchill Downs this coming weekend? Check out our prediction along with the favorites, a sleeper, and a long shot below.

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Betting Preview for the Kentucky Derby on May 1, 2021 at the Churchill Downs Race Track

Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky USA

When: May 1 2021, 6:57 PM ET

Lines: View all 2021 Kentucky Derby lines

Triple Crown Lines: Odds on a Triple Crown winner in 2021

TV Broadcast: NBC / Peacock TV

FAVORITES

Essential Quality (+200)

Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality has not experienced a loss in its racing career. The first time it competed, it went straight to topping the field at a Maiden Special Weight race at Churchill Downs last year. In its Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity. That was followed by victories at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1, Southwest Stakes-G3, and most recently, at the Blue Grass Stakes-G2 earlier this month. The Southwest Stakes was when Essential Quality first raced as a 3-year old. Cox has never won a Triple Crown race in his career, but Essential Quality does seem to have the qualities, so to speak, to give him his first.

Rock Your World (+500)

Rock Your World does appear to be the one horse that could give Essential Quality a run for its money. Rock Your World is undefeated just like the favorite. It has won three of its races including the Santa Anita Derby-G1 earlier in April. Prior to that, Rock Your World won the Pasadena Stakes back in February. Here’s more about Rock Your World, per Childs Walker of the Baltimore Sun:

“Rock Your World presents a fascinating case on several fronts, given that he’s raced just three times and the first two of those were on turf. Trainer John Sadler said he always intended to “lay in the weeds” with his Derby contender, and his strategy seemed to pay off at Santa Anita, where Rock Your World went to the lead quickly and put away his pursuers with ease.”

Known Agenda (+700)

What’s a Kentucky Derby race without a Todd Pletcher horse as among those to watch out for. In Known Agenda Pletcher is hoping to get another Triple Crown win at Churchill Downs. The Hall of Famer trainer has won the Kentucky Derby twice, the latest was in 2017 with Always Dreaming. In six starts, Known Agenda has won two times, including its last at the Florida Derby-G1 back in March.

SLEEPER

Midnight Bourbon (+2000)

Midnight Bourbon has seven races under its belt and not once has it finished worse than third place. In its most recent race, Midnight Bourbonfinished second behind fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Hot Rod Charlie at the Louisiana Derby-G2 back in March.

LONG SHOT

Get Her Number (+5000)

At its current odds to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby, Get Her Number seems like a good pick as a long shot. IUt has won two races in five starts, including the American Pharoah Stakes-G1 in September of 2020. Since then, however, Get Her Number has failed to show in two races, finishing seventh at the Rebels Stakes-G2 and fourth at the Arkansas Derby-G1.

Writer’s Prediction

Essential Quality wins the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

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