Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots AFC Championship Game Predictions, Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – January 18, 2015

Fresh off demolishing the Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round, the Indianapolis Colts are headed to Foxborough looking to serve another upset—this time against the New England Patriots. Will Andrew Luck outduel Tom Brady in a game that features two teams with combustible passing games?

Read on for a detailed preview of this matchup. You can also check out our preview of Packers vs. Seahawks here.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview and Prediction

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

When: Sunday, January 18, 2015, 6:40 PM ET

Line: Indianapolis Colts (+7) vs. New England Patriots (-7); total: 54.0 – see all NFL lines

Betting on the Indianapolis Colts

After winning a showdown with Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck will now challenge another future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady.

[sc:NFL240banner ]Led by the third-year quarterback, the Colts were able to get past the favored Denver Broncos, 24-13, on Sunday to clinch a spot in the AFC Conference Championship game. Luck passed for 265 yards and two touchdowns and went unscathed all game long as his protection unit didn’t allow a sack.

Luck also had a good game against New England, albeit in a tough 42-20 loss, back in Week 11, as he completed 23 of 39 passes for 303 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the Colts’ defense was helpless against New England, giving up 503 total yards.  That being said, Indianapolis has been doing better on defense as of late. The Colts team New England is about to face this coming Sunday brings a defense that has come to life since the start of the playoffs.

In the AFC Divisional Round game, the Colts limited Peyton Manning down to a pedestrian 211 passing yards and a touchdown. A week before, the Colts’ defense allowed Andy Dalton to throw for just 155 yards and sacked him three times as Indy took a convincing 26-10 win in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Any increase of possession time for the Colts could translate to better offense for Indianapolis, which racked up 322 total yards in Week 11 despite only having 25:30 minutes of possession.

Running back Daniel Herron has been making quite a name for himself in this playoffs. The former Ohio State standout has 119 rushing yards and two touchdowns over the last two Colts games. He’s also been a vital cog in the passing game, as he has 117 receiving yards on 18 catches during that stretch.

The Colts are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

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Betting on the New England Patriots

So long as Tom Brady is on the field, you can count on the Patriots to do something special.

Down by 14 twice in the AFC Divisional Round game against the Baltimore Ravens, Brady engineered a comeback for the ages, towing the Patriots to a 35-31 victory to help New England reach the AFC Conference Championship game for the fourth consecutive season. Brady finished the ball game with 367 passing yards and three touchdowns, including a 23-yard pass to Brandon LaFell late in the fourth quarter that gave the Patriots the lead for good.

Expect Brady’s arm to get another heavy workload against the Colts on Sunday. After throwing 50 passes and completing 33 of them against Baltimore, Brady will be up against Indianapolis’ defense that he assaulted for 257 yards in just 30 passes in Week 11.

Still, the Patriots are going to need their backfield to show up against Indy. After all, they put up 246 rushing yards against the Colts in their first meeting. Most of those yards, however, came from Jonas Gray who burned the turf for 201 yards. Gray has since been mediocre at best, generating only 80 yards over the next five games. LeGarrette Blount, meanwhile, should be aching to see an increase in carries. He only had three carries for a yard in the Baltimore game. Blount ended the regular season with 547 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Dating back to 2010, the Patriots are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four home games against Indianapolis.

Writer’s Prediction

Indianapolis wins, 32-27.
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