Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Predictions, Picks and Preview – American League Division Series Game Three – October 10, 2016

Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox ALDS Game 3 Preview

Where: Fenway Park, Boston

When: Monday, October 10, 2016, 6:00 PM ET

Line: Cleveland Indians (+130) vs. Boston Red Sox (-140); total: 9.5 – view all MLB lines

TV Broadcast: TBS

Writer’s Pick: Boston Red Sox (-140)

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Betting on the Cleveland Indians (+130)

After blanking the Red Sox, 6-0, in Game 2, manager Terry Francona now gives the ball to veteran Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA). The 31-year-old has stepped up big time in the absence of starters Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, posting a 1.75 ERA in his four September starts (25.2 innings). That’s quite a turnaround for Tomlin who recorded an 11.48 ERA in the month of August. Fenway Park has proven to be a tough venue, though, for Tomlin. In three starts in this historic ballpark, the right-hander has a 5.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Given Tomlin’s past struggles in Boston, it’s crucial for the Indians’ hitters to pull their weight on the offensive end. They have scored 11 runs in this series thus far.  The Cleveland offense will rely on the red-hot Jason Kipnis to carry them through in Game 3. He is 4-of-7 this postseason with a homer and three RBIs. Kipnis is batting .500 in his career against Clay Buchholz with a homer and four RBIs. Another guy who’s expected to contribute in Game 3 is Carlos Santana. He led the Indians in homers (34) and on-base percentage (.366) this season. Santana went 1-of-4 in Game 2 against the Red Sox. He is 4-of-8 lifetime against Buchholz with a homer and four RBIs.

The Indians are 5-5 in their last 10 road games. They are pegged at +110 to win the American League pennant this year.

Betting on the Boston Red Sox (-140)

On the mound for the Red Sox in this must-win ballgame is Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA). He’s been pretty good since rejoining the rotation back in August, going 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA in his last five starts. Buchholz held opposing hitters to a .219/.291/.343 line during that span. There’s some cause for concern, though, regarding Buchholz’s Game 3 start as he has struggled mightily at home this season. He posted a whopping 5.60 ERA in Fenway Park this season. In 72.1 innings pitched at home, Buchholz surrendered 14 home runs while opposing hitters slashed .276/.341/.495 against him.

With Buchholz still a big question mark at this point, the onus is on the Boston hitters to get some early runs on the board in Game 3. The Red Sox, who led the majors in runs scored this season, were shut out in that Game 2 defeat. The onus then is on the retiring David Ortiz to carry the scoring load for the Red Sox this coming Monday. He led the Red Sox in homers (38) and RBIs (127) this campaign. Ortiz is 3-of-17 against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin with three homers and six RBIs. He was hitless in four at-bats in Game 2.

The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 home games against the Indians. They are pegged at +700 to win the American League pennant this year.

Writer’s Prediction

Boston (-140) stays alive with a narrow 5-3 win.

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