UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – January 2, 2016

What a spectacular way to welcome the new year with over the top MMA action. The UFC Welterweight Championship will be on the line when champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler takes on “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit in the main event of UFC 195. It’s not all them, though. A handful of knockout artists make up the rest of the main card to get the fireworks going well after the New Year.

Are you still nostalgic for a great 2015 of sports? Check out our top 10 sports stories of 2015 to relive the action.
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UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit Preview

UFC Welterweight Championship: Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit

Line: Carlos Condit (-115) vs. Robbie Lawler (-115) – view all UFC 195 lines

“Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (26-10, 1NC) is ready for an encore of his Fight of the Year candidate title defense against Rory MacDonald in July. Lawler engaged then-challenger MacDonald in a brutal back-and-forth war, culminating in a fifth-round technical knockout victory. Ruthless landed hands left and right to batter MacDonald’s face en route to the victory.

[sc:UFC240banner ]Evident in the stellar performance is Lawler’s slick boxing pedigree. He stuck to the basics, landing one-twos and lead right hooks repeatedly throughout the contest. He also defended all four takedowns attempted by MacDonald. But Lawler will not have to worry about takedowns when he faces “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (30-8).

Condit truly embodies his nickname, relentlessly chasing the finish in each of his fights. Of his 30 professional victories, 15 have been by knockout and 13 by submission. He’s only gone the distance twice in wins. While Condit’s looping punches and elbows may give Lawler’s straight punches an advantage, he can take control of the fight in distance with some killer kicks.

Lawler was almost finished by a headkick and a follow-up flurry by MacDonald back in July, relying on his toughness to get him through the tough spot. Should Condit be able to hurt Lawler, then the end may certainly come soon. The Natural Born Killer swarms his opponents with punches, elbows, knees and kicks when he smells blood. Most recently, Condit mangled long-time contender Thiago Alves’ nose in May, resulting in a doctor stoppage after two rounds.

Writer’s prediction: Lawler has a habit of taking rounds off. Condit is all action and won’t stop until you fall down. The title changes hands as Condit (-115) batters Lawler en route to a fourth round technical knockout.

Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski vs. Stipe Miocic

Line: Andrei Arlovski (+180) vs. Stipe Miocic (-240) – view all UFC 195 lines

Here comes MMA’s Cinderella Man, Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski (25-10). The aging vet enters this fight riding a six-fight win streak. He’s demolished top fighters such as Travis Browne and Antonio Silva in first round knockouts, but had a lackluster outing in a unanimous decision victory over friend and former training partner Frank Mir.

Expect Arlovski to be all action when he meets rising contender Stipe Miocic (13-2), a man he shares no connection with, in the co-main event of UFC 195. Miocic is a hard-working fighter with slick boxing and solid wrestling that could help him outwork Arlovski. But he’s rather chinny; he was dropped by Junior Dos Santos and knocked out by Stephan Struve earlier in his career.

Writer’s prediction: It’s going to be difficult to deny Arlovski (+180) a shot at the belt or a No. 1 contender spot if he knocks Miocic’s block off. He just does that as he takes a second-round knockout victory.

Welterweight: Lorenz Larkin vs. Albert Tumenov

Line: Lorenz Larkin (+180) vs. Albert Tumenov (-240) – view all UFC 195 lines

Lorenz “The Monsoon” Larkin (16-4) should be motivated to climb the 170 ladder quickly. After all, he owns a win over current champion Robbie Lawler. Larkin is a sick Muay Thai stylist with back-to-back knockout victories since moving to the welterweight division. Albert “Einstein” Tumenov (16-2) definitely wants to put a halt to Larkin’s rise. He wants it all to himself.

Tumenov is a boxing genious with a killer left hook along with some opportunistic head kicks. But Einstein tends to be tentative as he calculates for the best time to strike. Larkin is all-action and won’t allow Tumenov to get his rhythm.

Writer’s prediction: Larkin (+180) wins a hard-fought unanimous decision after gruelling back-and-forth action.

Featherweight: Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega

Line: Diego Brandao (+175) vs. Brian Ortega (-225) – view all UFC 195 lines

After losing to Conor McGregor in Ireland in July 2014, Diego Brandao (20-10) has quietly won back-to-back fights by first round TKO. Most recently, he savaged Katsunori Kikuno in Japan last September. Brandao next faces Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Brian “T-City” Ortega (9-0), who is coming off a big stoppage victory against grizzled vet Thiago Tavares in June.

While Ortega doesn’t really have crisp and powerful strikes, he does have an endless gas tank coupled with a stellar ground game to win him fights.

Writer’s prediction: Brandao (+175) keeps the fight standing and tags Ortega for the second round knockout.

Lightweight: Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims

Line: Abel Trujillo (EVEN) vs. Tony Sims (-130) – view all UFC 195 lines

It’s going to be a slugfest when Abel “Killa” Trujillo (12-7) and Tony Sims (12-3) open the UFC 195 pay-per-view. Trujillo is a powerful striker from the Blackzillians camp with devastating punches and kicks. But his punches are usually loopy and open to counters. Sims has crisp boxing, which he used to win his UFC debut by knockout in the welterweight division. His crisp strikes should find their mark on a wild striker like Trujillo.

Writer’s prediction: Sims (-130) knocks out Trujillo in the first with a textbook counter right cross.

Fox Sports 1 Prelims

Michael McDonald is a talented fighter, but he’s been out of the Octagon for over two years. Masanori Kanehara (+375) is a tough welcome back fight. The Japanese grappling wiz grinds out a unanimous decision.

An injury to up-and-comer Kelvin Gastelum opened the door for Alex Morono (+210) to make his UFC debut. His all-action style should help him get past an aging veteran, Kyle Noke.

Long before she entered mixed martial arts, Justine Kish (-280) has already been competing in Muay Thai with a world championship belt to show. She handily beats Nina Ansaroff.

Drew Dober just does not stop. He’ll be in your face winging punches in bunches while also looking for openings for a takedown. Scott Holtzman is an unbeaten prospect with an ability to grind out wins as well. Dober (+135) wins a grind-fest as he dominates a fading Holtzman late into the fight.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

Perhaps one of the biggest fights of the prelims occurs earlier into the night. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier takes on UFC newcomer “Irish” Joe Duffy. Poirier is a solid fighter with slick submissions and knockout power on the feet. Duffy is an excellent grappler with sound boxing fundamentals. But Poirier (+150) has more experience against top competition which should lead to a unanimous decision win.

Michinori Tanaka (-115) has the Judo chops to grind out Joe Soto. Tanaka takes a unanimous decision.

Sheldon Westcott (-165) does his best work when grinding out opponents. He backs up Edgar Garcia into the cage en route to a unanimous decision.

Get your 2016 started with a bang. Create a betting account now and get plenty of MMA action to kick off the year.
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