UEFA Champions League Arsenal vs. Barcelona Predictions, Picks, and Preview – Round of 16 First Leg – February 23, 2016

Poor Arsenal. After fighting tooth and nail just to reach the Champions League knockout phase, their reward for all that hard work is a date with the defending champions, Barcelona. The Spanish super team have arguably the most frightening frontline ever assembled, and will be gunning for an away goal or two in London. Can the Gunners’ surprisingly resolute defense at the Emirates keep Barca at bay?

Get a complete breakdown of what should be a highly entertaining first leg matchup between these two attack-minded football powerhouses. Meanwhile, check out the day’s other massive first leg tie, Juventus vs. Bayern Munich.

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Arsenal vs. Barcelona Preview

Where: Emirates Stadium, London, England

When: Tuesday, February 23, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Arsenal +365 vs. Barcelona -151, tie +240; total 3.0 – view all UEFA Champions League lines

Betting on Arsenal

Arsenal sure made things way harder for themselves than they had to, but they eventually made it to the Champions League knockout phase for the 13th consecutive year. After losing their first two games to Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiakos, the Gunners returned the favor with 3-0 wins in the respective return legs, which sent them through as Group F runners-up.

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So that’s the good news. The bad news is that Arsene Wenger’s men haven’t gone past this round of the tournament in the last five years. (Last year’s shock loss to Monaco was a particularly egregious exit.) And the absolute worst news for the Gunners is the fact that they drew the defending champs, Barcelona.

Arsenal will be major underdogs to beat Barca in the first leg even though it’s in London. But don’t make the mistake of completely counting out the Gunners out. Remember, this is a team that shocked eventual champions Barcelona in their first leg meeting at this stage back in 2011.

Arsenal are one of the few teams in the world with the offensive firepower to compete with Barca. Alexis Sanchez is a former Barca player, while Mesut Ozil, who’s having an excellent season, has the talent to break into Barca’s starting 11. Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud ( five Champions League goals) aren’t too bad, either.

The more underrated part of the Gunners’ team has been their defense, particularly at home. Arsenal have conceded just eight goals in 13 home games at home, the best mark in the English Premier League this season. That defense impressively shutout Bayern Munich in a 2-0 Arsenal home win during the group stage.

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Betting on Barcelona

Apart from draws in their first and last group games (and they had guaranteed top spot by the last game) Barcelona pretty much breezed through Group E. They won all four games in between, and scored 15 goals against just four conceded overall.

Lionel Messi missed half of the group stage due to injury, but Luis Suarez stepped up with five goals to lead the team. And in typical Messi fashion, he still had three goals in his three games. That dream front three of Messi, Suarez and Neymar has been an absolute buzz saw that’s carved up defenses to the tune of 89 goals between them this year.

However, Barca have had a curiously difficult time scoring away from home. They have just 16 goals in 10 away games in the league, and only four in three in the Champions League. Based on that track record, it’s probably wise not to expect too big a goal tally from Barca at the Emirates. But an away win should still be a very decent possibility.

Arsenal’s defense, while improved with the addition of defensive midfielder Francis Coquelin, is still not one you’d fully trust to completely contain Messi and co.

Meanwhile, Suarez should be pretty familiar with that Arsenal backline. He orchestrated Liverpool’s 5-1 demolition of Arsenal back in 2014. Suarez is on an unbelievable hot streak at the moment with 14 goals in his last seven matches, including three hat-tricks.

Writer’s Prediction

Arsenal just have a knack of getting up for these big games. The Gunners (+365) get up for this one all right as they stun Barca, 2-1.

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