Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Betting Preview – September 4, 2015

Art Briles still has big dreams for his No.4 Baylor Bears despite losing to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl last January. Behind an offense that is expected to be among the best again in the nation and a more experienced defense, the Bears begin their 2015 campaign in Dallas, where the rebuilding SMU Mustangs will get to measure just how good have they become since Chad Morris took over the program last year.

For more college football, click here for a preview of the match between No.2 TCU and Minnesota.
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Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Tide Preview

Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas

When: Friday, September 4, 7:00 PM ET

Line: Baylor Bears (-35) at SMU Mustangs (+35)– view all NCAA Football lines

Betting on the Baylor Bears

[sc:NCAA240banner ]Baylor had the best scoring offense over the past two years, and the chances of the Bears topping (or at least coming close in) that department for the third consecutive season mainly rest on the shoulders of a quarterback not named Bryce Petty. That would be fourth-year junior Seth Russell, who’s got big shoes to fill following Petty’s departure for the NFL.

Russell, however, should find the going easy early in the season as the Bears face an unimposing SMU team that finished with a 1-11 overall record last season. Also expected to make Russell’s transition into a regular starter smoother is Baylor’s offensive line that returns all starters from last season, including All-American tackle Spencer Drango. It’s practically the same unit that paved the way for Baylor to average 365.9 passing yards (fourth in the nation) and 215.5 rushing yards per game (29th) last year.

Apart from the O-line, Russell would also be surrounded by a terrific supporting cast that has the likes of running back Shock Linwood and the wide receiver tandem of Corey Coleman and KD Cannon. Linwood, who had 1,252 rushing yards and reached the end zone 16 times last season, should have little trouble in burning rubber against SMU’s defense that was so generous it allowed opponents to average 235.75 rushing yards per game in 2014.

As for Coleman and Cannon, the duo can take advantage of SMU’s porous passing defense, one that gave up 263.7 passing yards per game (107th) last season.

Baylor can also kill it on defense this coming season with a front seven that’s nearly intact. And if there’s a team which could put a scare on Baylor’s D, it’s definitely not SMU, which had the second-worst offense in 2014.

Baylor is 4-2 ATS in its last six road games.

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Betting on the SMU Mustangs

New head coach Chad Morris faces a daunting task of reviving SMU’s football program, one that was absolutely blown to bits by the competition in 2014. After the Mustangs went just 1-7 in AAC play last season and 1-11 overall, Morris will have to start nearly from scratch in order for him to build a winner.

Expectations aren’t high for SMU this coming season, considering that the team breaks in just 11 total starters from 2014 and will have to learn a new football philosophy from Morris. That said, the Mustangs have nowhere to go but up with Morris on the sidelines.

Morris, Clemson’s former offensive coordinator, will have at his disposal quarterback Matt Davis, who is expected to get better this year. Back in 2014, Davis was able to lead the team in passing (855 yards, three touchdowns) and rushing yards (613 yards, four touchdowns) despite starting for only five games. The Mustangs, however, are going to need all hands on deck if they are to perform a miracle at home against Baylor.

Receivers Darius Durall, running backs K.C. Nlemchi and Prescott Line are also solid options for SMU’s offense. That said, it’s SMU’s offensive line that holds the key to a victory—or at least a spread cover. If Chauncey Briggs and the rest of the Mustang’s O-line can keep Davis on his feet and open clear paths for the running backs, then the Mustangs could be staring at a more manageable contest than what their 35-point spread as underdogs suggests.

The under is 3-1 in SMU’s last four home games.

Writer’s Prediction

Baylor (+35) wins, 45-14.
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