Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Week Nine Betting Preview – October 29, 2016

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin

When: Saturday, October 29, 2016 – 3:30 PM ET

Line: Baylor Bears (-3.5) vs. Texas Longhorns (+3.5) ; total 69.0 –  view all NCAA Football odds and lines

TV Broadcast: ABC

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Betting on the Baylor Bears (-3.5)

The 6-0 Baylor Bears have been effective on both sides of the field, scoring 43.7 points per game and only allowing 17.2 on defense. This past week, they proved those numbers versus the Jayhawks, scoring the first 49 points of the game, all the way to a 49-7 victory.

Despite all of that, though, critics argue that the record is all due to the fact that Baylor hasn’t faced any ranked team this season. The most solid opponent the team has had all year, at least based on the numbers, were the Oklahoma State Sooners, whom they beat 35-24 at McLane Stadium.

Ranked team or not, Baylor is now eighth in the polls, and they’ll carry on. It’ll start with QB Seth Russell, who has 1,470 passing yards this season, along with 16 TDs and only four picks. He’ll have the explosive K.D. Cannon by his side, who’s easily one of the strongest wideouts in the country. The junior receiver has 2,343 receiving yards (17 yards per catch) and 19 TDs in his career with the Bears.

If the two are not clicking, expect the team’s backfield tandem of Shock Linwood and Terence Williams to pound opponents. The pair of backs are evenly splitting 26-30 carries every contest, running for a combined 165.5 yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry, along with nine rushing scores.

As mentioned, the defense is top-notch. Don’t let the unimpressive 15 total sacks in six games distract you, they’re only allowing opposing QBs to complete 47.3 percent of their passes, and have only given up three passing TDs all season. Runners are also having minimal success with the front seven, as they are just giving up 3.4 yards per running play.

The Bears 9-1 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last 10 road games.

Betting on the Texas Longhorns (+3.5)

The Texas Longhorns almost completed a nice comeback against Kansas State last week, but fell short and lost 24-21. QB Shane Buechele had a great game, going 17-for-24 (71 percent comp. rate) for 222 yards and two TDs.

He’ll hope to have a similar strong performance Saturday afternoon with the visiting Baylor Bears. The freshman will continue looking for his reliable group of wide receivers, who have five guys with 200 or more receiving yards this season. However, it’s the run game that they’ll likely feature a whole lot, simply because back D’Onta Foreman is the best offensive weapon the Longhorns have. He’s currently leading the Big 12 in rushing yards (855) and all Big 12 running backs in rushing TDs (eight).

On defense, Texas has to be a lot careful. The D is getting the job done in terms of getting to the QB (25 sacks in seven games), but they are giving up 32.6 points and 438.7 yards per game, which was mostly against unheralded teams. If they come in with that type of defense versus Baylor, they can be blown out in no time.

The Longhorns are 6-4 SU (8-2 ATS) in their last 10 games at home.

Writer’s Prediction

Baylor (-3.5) wins, 38-28.

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