UEFA Champions League Benfica vs. Bayern Munich Predictions, Picks, and Preview – Quarterfinals Second Leg – April 13, 2016

Benfica are still alive. The Portuguese champions weathered an early storm in their Champions League quarterfinal first leg against Bayern Munich and escaped Germany down only 1-0. Benfica’s defense is as strong as advertised, but can they produce enough offense to overcome that narrow deficit without their top scorer and possibly also their captain?

Get a complete breakdown of the Benfica-Bayern second leg below. Meanwhile, check out Wednesday’s other Champions League action with our preview of Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona.

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Benfica vs. Bayern Munich Preview

Where: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal

When: Wednesday, April 13, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Benfica +415 vs. Bayern Munich -174, tie +255; total 2.5 – view all UEFA Champions League lines

TV Broadcast: FS2

Betting on Benfica

Give Benfica a ton of credit. They got hit with a huge sucker punch by conceding very early in the first leg against Bayern in Munich. With Bayern’s track record of absolutely thrashing opponents at home, it seemed like Benfica would suffer a similar fate. But they managed to regroup, and limited the damage to just a 1-0 defeat.

Nevertheless, Benfica should still consider a narrow defeat in Germany as a positive result. Of course, it still means they must now beat mighty Bayern (by two clear goals if Bayern score an away goal) for their +700 odds to advance to pay off, but at least they’ll be at home at the Estadio da Luz.

Benfica will definitely be without top scorer Jonas (32 goals this season) due to suspension and captain Nico Gaitan is also a doubt. Losing arguably their two most influential offensive players will obviously be huge, but Benfica’s terrific defense should be able to keep them in the game. That defense, which Guardiola considers the “best in Europe,” lived up to that high praise during the first leg.

Benfica backers should also be encouraged by the fact that Guardiola’s teams have famously struggled away from home, especially in the knockout rounds. In Pep’s last 10 away games in the Champions League knockout stages, his teams have won exactly once, with five draws and four losses. One of those losses came in Portugal during last season’s quarterfinals.

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Betting on Bayern Munich

Bayern didn’t deliver the blowout many were expecting after scoring in just the second minute of the first leg, but make no mistake, the Germans are still very much in the driver’s seat. The oddsmakers definitely agree, which is why they’ve installed Bayern as incredible -1,400 favorites to go through to the semifinals.

The equation is pretty simple for Bayern: just avoid defeat and they’re in. And if they score an away goal, even more pressure will be heaped on Benfica, who must then win by a two-goal margin.

Bayern haven’t looked like the all-conquering juggernaut many have been accustomed to seeing in recent weeks, but they’ve shown the ability to move up an extra gear when needed. They showed that ability in their stirring comeback against Juventus in the previous round.

For anyone in need of a refresher, Bayern were 2-0 down at home and staring elimination in the face, but they scored two late goals to force extra-time, which they also dominated to win 4-2.

Bayern’s sheer depth of talent, with Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller (15 total Champions League goals this season) up front, Diego Costa and Franck Ribery on the wings, and the electric Kingsley Coman in reserve, should have more than enough attacking options to break past Benfica’s defense at least once.

Bayern’s back line looked pretty shaky against Juve, but it shouldn’t have much to fear with Benfica potentially missing two of their stars on offense.

Writer’s Prediction

Bayern (-174) ease through to the semis with a comfortable 2-0 win.