UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich vs. Benfica Predictions, Picks, and Preview – Quarterfinals First Leg – April 5, 2016

Bayern Munich’s Champions League dreams are still alive. The German giants just about survived after being pushed all the way by Juventus in the round of 16. Their reward for an outstanding comeback was a much more favorable draw in the quarterfinals against Benfica, whom they host at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.

However, underestimate the Portuguese powerhouse at your own risk. They come to Germany on a great run of form, and will look to leave Bavaria with a decent result to take back home.

Get a full breakdown of this quarterfinal first leg below. Also, don’t forget to check out our preview of Tuesday’s other huge Champions League matchup, Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid.

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Bayern Munich vs. Benfica Preview

Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

When: Tuesday, April 5, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Bayern Munich –1,075 vs. Benfica +750, tie +615; total 3.0 – view all UEFA Champions League lines

Betting on Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich were given all they could handle in the previous round by Italian champions Juventus. The Bavarians were well on-course toward crashing out at home until a terrific comeback in the final 20 minutes saw them force extra time, which they dominated to book a place in the quarterfinals.

Bayern are still one of the top favorites at +250 to win the Champions League this season.

Defense was a major issue for the German champions over the two legs against Juve, so it should be a bit refreshing to see them keep a clean sheet in their last two Bundesliga matches. Their 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt over the weekend also saw the return of versatile midfielder/defender Javi Martinez, which will give them a much-needed option at the back.

With all due respect to Benfica, they’re a big step down from Juve and shouldn’t pose as big a threat to Bayern, especially in the Allianz. The Germans have lost just once on their home ground in the Bundesliga this season, and have scored 44 with just six conceded in 28 matches.

They’ve been even better in the Champions League, where they have won 10 games in a row at home. They’ve scored 18 goals and conceded just three in four home games this season. And in their last three home legs during the knockout rounds, they’ve won all three games by an aggregate score of 16-3.

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Betting on Benfica

Benfica will enter their first leg clash with Bayern Munich with all the confidence in the world. The Eagles have won their last eight matches in all competitions, which include their home and away wins over Zenit St. Petersburg in the previous round.

They are also coming off a 5-1 thrashing of fourth place Braga over the weekend. The prolific strike partnership of Jonas and Kostas Mitroglou supplied three of the goals for Benfica, who are now five points clear atop the Portuguese league.

Jonas and Mitroglou have combined for five goals thus far in this Champions League campaign. They, along with creative midfielder Nico Gaitan, will be a legitimate threat to a Bayern defense that looked far from secure in the previous round. However, chances will come few and far between for them in Munich, as Bayern will likely dominate possession.

Bayern, though, have a habit of underestimating less glamorous opponents, which will favor the Portuguese. In consecutive first legs last season, Bayern drew 0-0 against Shakhtar Donetsk and were soundly beaten 3-1 by another Portuguese club, Porto, in the quarterfinals.

Benfica, who are massive +600 underdogs to progress to the semifinals, have already shown they’re no pushovers away from home. Aside from beating Zenit in Russia, they also handed Atletico Madrid their lone loss of the tournament thus far by staging a comeback victory at the Vicente Calderon.

Writer’s Prediction

Bayern (-1,075) just have too many weapons for Benfica. The Germans go on to win 3-0 at home.