What Point Differential Tells You About NFL Teams

Two teams might have identical 9-7 records going into the playoffs but which is the better team? Looking at the point differential might be best way to really tell how dominant a team may have been.

In its simplest definition, point differential is the difference between a team’s total points (offense) and the points scored against them (defense). Last season, the New England Patriots had a 12-4 SU record and scored 557 points and allowed a total of 331 points in the season. So taking those numbers into the equation:

557 Points – 331 Points Against = 226

That means +226 was the Patriots’ point differential – the best in the NFL in 2012. For comparison, let’s also take a look at the team who had the worst number in this department, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs took a severe beating week in and week out last season and had a total of -214 point differential. Without even looking at the Chiefs’ win-loss record, you can say that they had a bad year as they produced a league-worst 2-14 SU record.

Let’s take the 2012 Indianapolis Colts as an example of how point differential can be used as a telling statistic of a team’s performance beyond its win-loss record.

After a 2-14 SU outing in 2011, the Colts made a huge turn around by going 11-5 SU the next year. In our article How Good Record Teams Can Hide Bad Numbers, we noted the Colts’ penchant for escaping close games. Their win-loss card won’t tell us that most of the Colts’ victories could have gone either way. But if you also looked at their -30 point differential, which was by the way the worst among teams with winning records, it will give you an idea how lucky (or clutch) Indianapolis was to win that many games. This also partly explains how the Colts went 11-5 ATS.

But besides that unusual case by the Colts, the point differential system does a pretty decent job of keeping relatively in track with the teams’ positions in the standings. To support this, you can look up at the top five NFL teams in point differential and see that four of those are division champions.

In Betting

When paired with a bad SU record, a single-digit negative point differential also means a healthy ATS record. Normally, these are underdog teams which over the course of a season had consistently remained competitive; The 2012 Detroit Club lost by an average margin of just -.4, the 2012 Bucs -.3, and the Panthers by just .4.

Team and SU Record

Point Differential

ATS Record

2010 Detroit Lions (4-12)

-7

12-4

2012 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

-5

9-6-1

2012 Carolina Panthers (7-9)

-6

9-7

In win-loss records, all wins and losses are equal. But point differential sees them in a different manner.

It doesn’t just tell us that this team won or this one lost. It goes beyond that by recognizing a team’s offensive and defensive capabilities and using it to give us a deeper look at its true performance, therefore giving us a fresher perspective on good and bad NFL teams.

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