2016-17 NCAA College Football Bowl Season Predictions, Picks and Preview

So many bowl games. So many bets (and money) to make off them. Without further ado, here’s a complete breakdown of all 41 bowl games – including the College Football Playoff – along with against the spread picks for each and every one.

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2016-17 NCAA Football Bowl Season Against the Spread Picks

December 17

Gildan New Mexico Bowl:
New Mexico (-7) vs. UTSA (+7) – 2:00 PM ET, ESPN

The big question in this matchup is whether UTSA (6-6) can stop New Mexico (8-4) and its top-ranked rushing attack which has piled up 361 rushing yards per game. Judging by the Road Runners’ middling 4.35 yards per carry allowed, and the fact that the Lobos will be playing in their own backyard, the answer is probably not.

Writer’s Prediction: New Mexico (-7) wins and covers, 35-24.

Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico:
Houston (-3.5) vs. San Diego State (+3.5) – 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Houston (9-3) has the No. 3-ranked run defense in the country, but the Cougars will be without head coach Tom Herman, who’s gone to Texas. The Cougs, who entered the season dreaming of a New Year’s Six bowl, may also be short of motivation for this game. That likely won’t be the case for San Diego State’s Donnell Pumphrey, the second-leading rusher in the country with 2,018 yards, and the Aztecs (10-3), who will look to build off their Mountain West title.

Writer’s Prediction: San Diego State (+3.5) gets the upset win, 35-28.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl:
Appalachian State (+1.5) vs. Toledo (-1.5) – 5:30 PM ET, ESPN

App State (9-3) can dominate this matchup in the trenches. The Mountaineers are No. 13 in rushing yards per game (247) and in the top-25 in rushing yards allowed (125.8). That should help them neutralize an explosive Toledo offense that’s in the top 20 in scoring, averaging close to 40 points per game.

Writer’s Prediction: App State (+1.5) upsets Toledo, 27-24.

AutoNation Cure Bowl:
UCF (-5.5) vs. Arkansas State (+5.5) – 5:30 PM ET, CBSSN

UCF (8-4) and Arkansas State (7-5) are pretty evenly matched on offense and defense, but UCF has a sizeable advantage in terms of special teams. That should give them the edge in the matchup, but it’s likely not enough for the Knights to pull away from a solid Red Wolves team that’s won seven of its last eight games.

Writer’s Prediction: UCF (-5.5) wins and covers, 31-24.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl:
Southern Miss (-3.5) vs. UL Lafayette (+3.5) – 9:00 PM ET, ESPN

This Southern matchup has the makings of a closely-contested contest, so let’s go with the team with the best player on the field. That’d be Southern Miss with quarterback Nick Mullens. The senior had another solid year with 22 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, and finished in the top 25 in the country in passing yards per game and passer rating.

Writer’s Prediction: Southern Miss (-3.5) wins and covers, 42-38.

December 19

Miami Beach Bowl:
Central Michigan (+11.5) vs. Tulsa (-11.5) – 2:30 PM ET, ESPN

The Tulsa offense should be the best unit on the field in this bowl game. Led by quarterback Dane Evans, the Golden Hurricane averaged 41.4 points per game (11th in the country). They should have enough firepower to eventually blow by the Chippewas.

Writer’s Prediction: Tulsa (-11.5) wins big and covers, 49-27.

December 20

Boca Raton Bowl:
Memphis (+5) vs. Western Kentucky (-5) – 7:00 PM ET, ESPN

There should be a bunch of points in this matchup between Western Kentucky (10-3) and Memphis (8-4). The Hilltoppers are No. 2 in the country at 45.1 points per game, while the Tigers are 17th at 39.5. The Hilltoppers will be without head coach Jeff Brohm, who is now in Purdue. But they are still the much more efficient unit, and should be able to overwhelm a Tigers defense that will give points up.

Writer’s Prediction: Western Kentucky (-5) outduels Memphis, 48-42.

December 21

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl:
BYU (-8.5) vs. Wyoming (+8.5) – 9:00 PM ET, ESPN

BYU (8-4) has had a very impressive season. The Cougars had a tough schedule this year, and their four losses this season all came against Power 5 opposition and by a total of eight points. But Wyoming (8-5) will be tough to beat by more than a touchdown. The Cowboys kept it within a score against the likes of Boise State and San Diego State, and will give the Cougars a fight.

Writer’s Prediction: BYU wins, 28-21, but Wyoming (+8.5) covers.

December 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl:
Idaho (+13.5) vs. Colorado State (-13.5) – 7:00 PM ET, ESPN

Colorado State (7-5) ended the season strong. The Rams averaged 47.4 points per game in their last five regular season games, which included a 63-31 blowout of San Diego State. They have some terrific balance on offense, and will be tough for the Vandals to live with.

Writer’s Prediction: Colorado State (-13.5) rolls to a big 45-28 win.

December 23

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl:
Eastern Michigan (+4) vs. Old Dominion (-4) – 1:00 PM ET, ESPN

How much does Eastern Michigan (7-5) have left? The Eagles did well to overcome a bunch of injuries and still finish with seven wins. But after overcoming all that adversity, it’s very possible they just decide to go through the motions in the bowl game. If that is indeed the case, Old Dominion and its balanced offense can capitalize.

Writer’s Prediction: Old Dominion (-4) wins and covers, 35-24.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl:
Louisiana Tech (-4.5) vs. #25 Navy (+4.5) – 4:30 PM ET, ESPN

Navy (9-4) suffered a huge blow as quarterback Will Worth in the Army game, which Navy lost. Without their starting QB orchestrating the triple-option, it’s going to be very tough for the Midshipmen to go blow for blow against a very explosive Louisiana Tech offense which averaged 44.0 points per game, fifth in the nation

Writer’s Prediction: Louisiana Tech (-4.5) wins and covers, 45-34.

Dollar General Bowl:
Ohio (+3.5) vs. Troy (-3.5) – 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Both Ohio (8-5) and Troy (9-3) are fairly middling defensively, but the Trojans have the superior quarterback in junior Brandon Silvers, who finished 53rd in passer rating; Ohio’s Greg Windham finished 89th out of 100.

Writer’s Prediction: Troy (-3.5) wins and covers, 31-27.

December 24

Hawai’i Bowl:
Hawai’i  vs. Middle Tennessee – 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

For a team that lost its starting quarterback late in the season, Middle Tennessee’s offense sure looked fine. The Blue Raiders put up 115 points in their last two regular season games. That includes a whopping 77 points against Florida Atlantic, as they gashed the Owls for 495 rushing yards and 9 rushing Tds.

Even with home-field advantage, Hawai’i, which averaged 26.5 points per game, won’t be able to keep up with that kind of high-powered offense.

Writer’s Prediction: Middle Tennessee wins, 35-21.

December 26

St. Petersburg Bowl:
Miami (Ohio) (+13) vs. Mississippi State (-13)– 11:00 AM ET, ESPN

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has been one of the breakout stars of the SEC this season. The sophomore racked up 3,530 yards from scrimmage (1,243 with his feet) and accounted for 35 touchdowns. This bowl game against Miami (Ohio) looks primed for him to impress, and that performance will then lead to increased hype for next season.

Writer’s Prediction: Mississippi State (-13) wins and covers, 55-28.

Quick Lane Bowl:
Maryland (-1) vs. Boston College (+1) – 2:30 PM ET, ESPN

Maryland (6-6) and Boston College (6-6) look very evenly matched, but while the Terps are nothing special on either side of the ball, the Eagles have a very good defense and a horrible offense. So, which one will win out? Let’s go with the best unit on either team – the BC defense – to make enough plays and pull out the bowl win.

Writer’s Prediction: Boston College (+1) grabs the slight upset, 24-21.

Camping World Independence Bowl:
NC State (-4) vs. Vanderbilt (+4) – 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2

NC State has a lot more talent on its team than its 6-6 record indicates. The Wolfpack gave Clemson and Florida State a run for their money, and they also beat Notre Dame and state rivals UNC. Let’s take that talent to edge out a Vanderbilt team which will struggle moving the ball against a tough Wolfpack defense (5.25 yards per play, 37th in the country).

Writer’s Prediction: NC State (-4) wins and covers, 23-17.

December 27

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl:
Army (-10) vs. North Texas (+10) – 12:00 PM ET, ESPN

These two teams already met earlier this season, with North Texas coming out on top, 35-18. Army’s Ahmad Bradshaw probably won’t throw four picks again like he did in that matchup, though, and the high of finally topping Navy should be enough to lift the Black Knights past the Mean Green.

Writer’s Prediction: Army wins, 35-27, but North Texas (+10) covers.

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman:
#24 Temple (-13) vs. Wake Forest (+13) – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN

After failing to cover its first game of the season, the Temple Owls proceeded to go 12-0 against the spread in their last 12 games en route to the AAC title. The architect of that success, head coach Matt Rhule, is off to Baylor, which will be a tough blow for the Owls.

But even without Rhule, they still have enough of an edge on both sides of the ball to run out comfortable winners over another defense-oriented team in Wake Forest.

Writer’s Prediction: Temple (-13) trucks Wake, 38-21.

National Funding Holiday Bowl:
Minnesota (+7) vs. Washington State (-7) – 7:00 PM ET, ESPN

A once-promising season went south in a hurry for Washington State. But make no mistake: Luke Falk and the Cougars’ high-powered offense will still take some stopping. Minnesota has the defense that could do just that, but the Gophers just don’t have anywhere near the firepower that Wazzu has.

Writer’s Prediction: Washington State (-7) wins and covers, 38-28.

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl:
Boise State (-7.5) vs. Baylor (+7.5) – 10:15 PM ET, ESPN

Baylor has treated the last six games of its season like that bowl game it couldn’t care less about. And now, the Bears finally get the real thing in their matchup with Boise State. The Broncos should be the much more motivated team to get this bowl win and make up for a season which fell some way short of expectations.

Writer’s Prediction: Boise State (-7.5) wins and covers, 38-24.

December 28

New Era Pinstripe Bowl:
#23 Pitt (-5.5) vs. Northwestern (+5.5) – 2:00 PM ET, ESPN

Pitt had quite as season as it downed not one but two top-5 teams in the current AP Poll – Clemson and Penn State. The Panthers have an outstanding balanced offense which put up 42.3 points per game (10th in the nation). That offense will be the best unit on the field, and one that should be able to eventually outlast the Wildcats and their solid defense.

Writer’s Prediction: Pitt (-5.5) wins and covers, 35-24.

Russell Athletic Bowl:
#16 West Virginia (+3) vs. Miami (FL) (-3) – 5:30 PM ET, ESPN

After a rough four-game losing skid in the middle of the season, Miami got its act together to end its first season under Mark Richt strong. The young Canes should be the much more motivated team to put in a good performance in this bowl game over a West Virginia team that fell a bit flat after some early promise.

Writer’s Prediction: Miami (-3) wins and covers, 35-31.

Foster Farms Bowl:
Indiana (+7.5) vs. #19 Utah (-7.5) – 8:30 PM ET, FOX

Kyle Whittingham is the king of bowl games. He’s 9-1 in his career during bowl season, and will be favored to make it an even 10 this year. His Utes are a terrific defensive team, one that should be able to limit a competent but inconsistent Indiana offense just enough.

Writer’s Prediction: Utah (-7.5) wins and covers, 38-27.

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl:
Texas A&M (-2) vs. Kansas State (+2)– 9:00 PM ET, ESPN

Texas A&M’s patented second-half-of-the-season collapse once again derailed a season which was looking so good. Of course, the injury to quarterback Trevor Knight also didn’t help, but their run defense was once again exposed during that stretch of three losses in their last four games.

Kansas State can certainly capitalize on that particular weakness in the Aggies D. The Wildcats were in the top 30 in yards per game, and their 36 rushing touchdowns were also 7th-most in the country.

Writer’s Prediction: Kansas State (+2) gets the upset win, 31-28.

December 29

Birmingham Bowl:
USF (-10.5) vs. South Carolina (+10.5) – 2:00 PM ET, ESPN

South Florida head coach Willie Taggart is heading to the Pacific Northwest to coach Oregon, but he leaves behind a South Florida team that’s brimming with offensive talent. Bulls Quarterback Quinton Flowers has emerged as one of the more under-the-radar stars in the college game as he accounted for nearly 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns.

The dual-threat QB certainly has the ability to do a reasonably good Deshaun Watson impression against South Carolina. Watson, of course, ripped the SC defense to shreds both on the ground and through the air in the Gamecocks’ last game.

Writer’s Prediction: USF (-10.5) wins and covers, 42-28.

Belk Bowl:
Arkansas (+7) vs. #22 Virginia Tech (-7) – 5:30 PM ET, ESPN

Despite its loss to Clemson in the ACC title game, the future for Virginia Tech is very bright under first-year head coach Justin Fuente. The Hokies should be fairly up for this game as they will be looking for a 10th win of the season.

And even if a very disappointing Arkansas is also pretty motivated for this one, the thought of Austin Allen throwing against a very good Hokies pass defense does not bode well for the Razorbacks’ chances.

Writer’s Prediction: Virginia Tech (-7) wins and covers, 42-31.

Valero Alamo Bowl:
#12 Oklahoma St. (+3) vs. #10 Colorado (-3) – 9:00 PM ET, ESPN

It was a bit disappointing to see an otherwise outstanding season from Colorado go down in flames against Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. The Buffs can still end their dream season on a high, though, as they match up quite well against Oklahoma State.

As they showed against Washington, the Buffs can virtually shut down their opposition’s passing game. And as good as the Cowboys’ running game has been at the tail-end of the season, it probably won’t be good enough to get the better of Colorado without getting big plays through the air.

Writer’s Prediction: Colorado (-3) wins and covers, 35-31.

December 30

AutoZone Liberty Bowl:
Georgia (-1) vs. TCU (+1) – 12:00 PM ET, ESPN

It’s tough to know what you’re going to get with either of these teams. But of the two, Georgia will likely have a greater sense of urgency after Kirby Smart’s first season fell way short of expectations. They do have a capable running game in Nick Chubb and Sonny Michel, and the defensive front isn’t exactly the TCU defense’s strength.

Writer’s Prediction: Georgia wins and covers, 31-28.

Hyundai Sun Bowl:
#18 Stanford (-3.5) vs. North Carolina (+3.5) – 2:00 PM ET, CBS

Everyone remembers what happened the last time North Carolina was in a bowl game: Baylor ran right down the Tar Heels’ throat all night long en route to a record 645 rushing yards. One year later, that pathetic Tar Heels front will now face off with Stanford’s superstar running back Christian McCaffrey, who will be looking to go out with a bang in what will likely be his final college game.

In short, UNC and its run defense don’t figure to have an enjoyable bowl season for the second straight year.

Writer’s Prediction: Stanford (-3.5) wins and covers, 38-31.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl:
Nebraska (+3) vs. #21 Tennessee (-3) – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN

Tennessee just hasn’t been able to consistently harness its immense talent under Butch Jones. The Vols once again fell way short of expectations this season, and Jones will need every positive he can get to stave off the ax. That includes a credible showing in a bowl game against a competent Nebraska team.

This bowl game has a chance to be a bit of a shootout, but the Vols should have enough weapons to outlast the Huskers.

Writer’s Prediction: Tennessee (-3) wins and covers, 35-28.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl:
South Alabama (+13.5) vs. Air Force (-13.5) – 5:30 PM ET, Campus Insiders

Air Force finished its season strong with five wins in a row, including a couple of big wins over Colorado State and Boise State. South Alabama, though, has been able to step up its game against top opposition, as the Jags showed with their wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State. At the very least, they manage to keep it within two touchdowns.

Writer’s Prediction: Air Force wins, 28-21, but South Alabama (+13.5) covers.

Capital One Orange Bowl:
#6 Michigan (-7) vs. #11 Florida State (+7) – 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

Michigan is still reeling from the disappointment of just missing out on the College Football Playoff, but the Wolverines can take out their frustrations on Florida State. The Wolverines’ ferocious defensive front looks like a very bad matchup against the Noles’ shaky offensive line, which has struggled to protect Deondre Francois all season long. That mismatch alone should help the Wolverines to a big bowl win.

Writer’s Prediction: Michigan (-7) wins and covers, 35-24.

December 31

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl:
#20 LSU (-3.5) vs. #13 Louisville (+3.5) – 11:00 AM ET, ABC

Lamar Jackson is still flying high after his recent Heisman Trophy win, but this matchup against a very athletic and talented LSU defense will be a tough one. Jackson had problems against the other two top defenses he’s faced – Clemson and Houston – and will be lucky to leave this game completely unscathed.

The Tigers, meanwhile, shouldn’t be short of motivation in this game. Not only will they want to win their first game under new permanent head coach Ed Orgeron, but they will also look to cut the newly-crowned Heisman winner down a peg.

Writer’s Prediction: LSU (-3.5) wins and covers, 34-30.

TaxSlayer Bowl:
Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs. Kentucky (+3.5) – 11:00 AM ET, ESPN

Georgia Tech finished its season very strongly, with wins over Virginia Tech, Virginia, and state rivals Georgia. The Yellow Jackets’ famous triple-option has been running very smoothly, averaging 244 yards in those three wins. They should be able to continue running with relative ease against a subpar Kentucky run defense giving up 5.14 yards per carry, 105th in the nation.

Writer’s Prediction: Georgia Tech (-3.5) wins and covers, 38-31.

January 2

Outback Bowl:
#17 Florida (-2.5) vs. Iowa (+2.5) – 1:00 PM ET, ABC

Florida probably can’t wait for this season to be over. Despite winning the SEC East, the Gators got smashed in their final two games of the season against rivals Florida State and Alabama. This matchup with Iowa will likely be an ugly defensive battle, but Florida’s injuries on defense and lack of all-out effort should give the Hawkeyes the edge.

Writer’s Prediction: Iowa (+2.5) gets the upset win, 24-21.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic:
#15 Western Michigan (+7.5) vs. #8 Wisconsin (-7.5) – 1:00 PM ET, ESPN

Two of Western Michigan’s wins in its 13-0 season have come against Big Ten teams – Northwestern and Illinois. Of course, they’re not nearly on the level of Wisconsin. The Broncos have one of the best receivers in the game in Corey Davis (1,427 yards and an FBS-high 18 TDs) that can spring big plays against a Wisconsin secondary that was torn to shreds by Penn State. But the Badgers should be able to make enough stops on defense and in the run game with Corey Clement to run away from the Broncos.

Writer’s Prediction: Wisconsin (-7.5) wins and covers, 31-21.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual:
#9 USC (-6.5) vs. #5 Penn State (+6.5) – 5:00 PM ET, ESPN

Expect points in this year’s Rose Bowl, as USC and Penn State have two of the most explosive offenses in the country. Both teams have terrific quarterbacks and skill position talent, which will make it hard to choose between the two.

This game could ultimately come down to which defense can make enough stops, and USC (just 18.4 points allowed in its last seven games) should be able to come up with a few of them. However, Penn State has enough firepower to keep it close till the end.

Writer’s Prediction: USC wins, 35-32, but Penn State (+6.5) covers.

Allstate Sugar Bowl:
#14 Auburn (+3.5) vs. #7 Oklahoma (-3.5) – 8:30 PM ET, ESPN

All the signs point to Oklahoma being the right pick in this matchup with Auburn. The Sooners have reeled off nine wins in a row, and disposed of their two closest competitors in the Big 12 by a combined 46 points. They have an outstanding quarterback in Baker Mayfield, the best receiver in the college game in Dede Westbrook, and arguably the best running back tag team in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon.

The only question with Oklahoma will be motivation, especially after it just missed out on the playoff. But even so, it’s tough to see Auburn keeping up with such an elite offense for a full four quarters.

Writer’s Prediction: Oklahoma (-3.5) wins and covers, 42-24.

College Football Playoff semifinals, December 31

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl:
No. 4 Washington (+16) vs. No. 1 Alabama (-16) – 3:00 PM ET, ESPN

Only two teams have come within 16 points of Alabama this season. That’s how dominant the Tide have been. And as dominant as Washington looked against Colorado in the Pac-12 title game, it won’t be able to do that against Bama.

Washington won’t be able to run the ball nearly as well against the Tide’s outstanding front, which means Jake Browning must step up and make plays. But he was completely shut down by Colorado (9-of-24 for 118 yards and 2 TDs). He doesn’t figure to get much better with Bama’s elite pass rushers coming at him down after down.

Writer’s Prediction: Alabama (-7.5) wins and covers, 35-13.

College Football Playoff semifinal: PlayStation Fiesta Bowl:
No. 3 Ohio St. (-3.5) vs. No. 2 Clemson (+3.5) – 7:00 PM ET, ESPN

Ohio States offense remains very shaky anytime it faces a top defense (see: the Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan games). J.T. Barrett has not been able to get anything going through the air. He’s passed for just 210 yards in his last two games.

That’s in stark contrast to Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, who has been playing his best ball of the season in recent games. Watson is becoming much more of a factor with his legs, as he showed with his 85 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs against Virginia Tech. That, coupled with his ability to take the top off the Ohio State defense through the air, will make the Tigers offense tough to contain.

Writer’s Prediction: Watson leads Clemson (+3.5) to an upset win, 34-31.

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