2015-16 College Football Bowl Season Projections

At long last, bowl season finally begins this weekend. For the next few weeks, college football fans will be inundated will all the great action that comes with such diverse matchups. [sc:CottonBowl250 ]But before all that action begins, let’s take a quick look at each and every bowl game from a statistical perspective and project how they play out based on the teams’ strengths and weaknesses before concluding with a bold prediction.

Meanwhile, check out more bowl season coverage with our compilation of some of the top college football experts’ predictions here.
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2015-16 College Football Bowl Season Projections

Saturday, December 19

New Mexico Bowl – Arizona (6-6) vs. New Mexico (7-5) (2:00 PM ET)

With quarterback Anu Solomon’s sophomore year struggles, Arizona has relied on a more run-heavy attack this season. The Wildcats finished 18th in the nation, averaging 226 rushing yards per game. They’ll face a middling New Mexico run defense that ranked No. 97 in the nation in rushing yards allowed (194.3).

New Mexico’s own rushing offense, though, is way up in eighth in the country at 246 yards per game with 38 touchdowns.

Writer’s Prediction: Arizona wins, 34-31, but New Mexico (+8) covers

Las Vegas Bowl – BYU (9-3) vs. Utah (9-3) (3:30 PM ET)

BYU is one of the most prolific passing offenses in the country, finishing just outside the top 20 in passing yards per game (295) behind the arm of true freshman Tanner Mangum.  Utah is a more run-oriented team, although most of the 187 rushing yards per game they averaged came from running back of Devontae Booker, who will miss out on the bowl game with an injured knee.

Utah seemingly has the edge defensively, but BYU has given up exactly the same 21.8 points per game this season, albeit with a weaker schedule.

Writer’s Prediction: BYU (+3) wins, 20-17.

Camellia Bowl – Appalachian State (10-2) vs. Ohio (8-4) (5:30 PM ET)

Appalachian State averaged a very impressive 37.2 points per game this season (17th in the nation) which was built upon the sixth-best rushing attack (269 yards per game). Ohio hasn’t fared particularly well against the run this season. The Bobcats have given up around 4.84 yards per carry. Their scoring defense has held up reasonably well, though, allowing just a shade below 25 points per game.

Writer’s Prediction: Appalachian State wins (-7.5), 34-24.

Cure Bowl – Georgia State (6-6) vs. San Jose State (5-7) (7:00 PM ET)

Georgia State can rack up the yards in the passing game with quarterback Nick Arbuckle. The Panthers are putting up 346 yards per game (eighth in the country), but are surprisingly scoring just under 28 points.

San Jose State is averaging the same amount of points, but with a much more balanced offense. The Spartans were second in the Mountain West in passing yards (233 yards per game) and have the 12th most productive rusher in Tyler Ervin (126 yards per game). They also have a pass defense that gave up the second-fewest yards in the entire nation (153 yards allowed per game).

Writer’s Prediction: Georgia State (+2.5) wins, 38-27.

New Orleans Bowl – Arkansas State (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4) (9:00 PM ET)

Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech know how to put points on the board and should be in for a shootout of a bowl game. The Red Wolves (41.0 points per game) and Bulldogs (36.8) are both in the top 20 in scoring this year. Arkansas State, though, has been in much better form, having scored at least 50 points in each of its last three games.

Writer’s Prediction: Arkansas State (+2) wins, 44-41

Monday, December 21

Miami Beach Bowl – South Florida (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (11-2) (2:30 PM ET)

South Florida will pound the ball early and often with Marlon Mack and a running game that was No. 11 in the nation with 243 rushing yards per game. Western Kentucky, though, is the much more explosive offense, with a passing attack led by Brandon Doughty that allowed the Hilltoppers to score a whopping 44.2 points per game (fourth in the nation).

Writer’s Prediction: Western Kentucky (-2.5) wins, 34-28.

Tuesday, December 22

Idaho Potato Bowl – Akron (7-5) vs. Utah State (6-6) (3:30 PM ET)

Akron’s big strength is on the defensive end. The Zips surrendered just 21.5 points per game this season, and only 15.5 points through their regular season-ending four-game winning streak. Utah State’s offense isn’t overly prolific – it averaged just below 30 points per game this season – but the return of quarterback Chuckie Keeton after missing over half the season should make a major difference for the Aggies.

Writer’s Prediction: Utah State wins, 28-27, but Akron (+7) covers.

Boca Raton Bowl – Temple (10-3) vs. Toledo (9-2) (7:00 PM ET)

Temple’s defense slipped in the second half of the year, but it was arguably one of the best in the nation for much of the first half. The Owls still finished a very respectable 16th in scoring defense (19.2 points per game), which should help limit a talented Toledo offense that put up 35.3 points. However, the Owls’ own offense (30.8 points) could be a liability should the defense have an off-night.

Writer’s Prediction: Temple (-1.5) wins, 27-20.

Wednesday, December 23

Poinsettia Bowl – Boise State (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (8-5) (7:00 PM ET)

Boise State had a down year by its significantly high standards this season, but the Broncos still put up some very impressive numbers on both sides of the ball (37.8 points against just 21.3 points allowed per game).

Northern Illinois (33.3 points per game) might’ve stood a chance to keep up with the Broncos offensively, but it’ll be tough now that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback, Tommy Fiedler.

Writer’s Prediction: Boise State (-8.5) wins, 30-21.

GoDaddy Bowl – Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Georgia Southern (8-4) (8:00 PM ET)

The architect of Bowling Green’s surprising top 5 offense (43.4 points per game) – Dino Babers – is gone, but quarterback Matt Johnson (4,700 passing yards and 43 touchdowns this season) is still around to throw bombs at Georgia Southern’s secondary.

The Eagles defense, though, has given up just 17 plays of 30-plus yards from the line of scrimmage all season in support of the most prolific rushing attack in the nation (355 yards per game).

Writer’s Prediction: Bowling Green wins, 45-42, but Georgia Southern covers (-7.5).

Thursday, December 24

Bahamas Bowl – Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (7-5) (12:00 PM ET)

Thanks in large part to the terrific receiving duo of Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis, who combined to catch 185 passes for 2,519 yards with 23 touchdowns, Western Michigan was able to average 35.3 points per game this season. It’ll be a challenge for Middle Tennessee to hang with those Broncos receivers, seeing as the Blue Raiders ranked in the bottom fourth in pass defense this year (247 passing yards allowed).

Writer’s Prediction: Western Michigan (-3.5) wins, 35-31.

Hawaii Bowl – Cincinnati (7-5) vs. San Diego State (10-3) (8:00 PM ET)

Cincinnati can put points up – it averaged 36.1 points per game this season – but the absence of first-choice QB Gunner Kiel due to personal reasons will be a significant blow, especially against San Diego State team that was tied for 10th in scoring defense (17.2 points allowed per game).

Writer’s Prediction: San Diego State (+1.5) wins, 31-24.

Saturday, December 26

St. Petersburg Bowl – Marshall (9-3) vs. UConn (6-6) (11:00 PM ET)

UConn was surprisingly one of the best defenses in the nation this year (19.8 points allowed per game), and was the only team to bring down AAC champion Houston. However, the Huskies were also dismantled 27-3 by a punchless Temple team and could suffer the same fate against a very competent Marshall squad.

Writer’s Prediction: Marshall (-4) wins, 26-20.

Sun Bowl – Miami (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4) (2:00 PM ET)

Brad Kaaya had a pretty disappointing sophomore season (15 TDs, down from 26 as a freshman), much like the entire Miami team. The Canes could hardly stop anyone on defense, giving up 28.8 points per game. That’s not a particularly promising combination against a Wazzu team that will have quarterback Luke Falk (4,266 passing yards, 36 TDs) back from a concussion.

Writer’s Prediction: Washington State (-3) wins, 41-30.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – Southern Miss (9-4) vs. Washington (6-6) (2:20 PM ET)

Southern Miss quarterback Nick Mullens has done a masterful job leading a Golden Eagles offense that has soared this season, averaging 40 points per game. But Washington’s defense (17.8 points allowed per game) will be by far the best they’ll face this season. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense also sparked into life with 97 points in its last two games.

Writer’s Prediction: Washington wins, 31-27, but Southern Miss covers (+8.5)

Pinstripe Bowl – Duke (7-5) vs. Indiana (6-6) (3:30 PM ET)

As good as the Hoosiers have been on offense (36.2 points per game) this season, they’ve been worse on defense (37.1). However, the Duke defense has faltered very badly in the final few weeks of the season, giving up 38 points per game in its last five games, with four losses.

Writer’s Prediction: Indiana (-2) wins, 41-35.

Independence Bowl – Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6) (5:45 PM ET)

Philip Montgomery has instilled the famed Baylor offensive ethos in his first year at Tulsa, as the Golden Hurricane have averaged an impressive 36 points per game with the passing attack up in 11th in the nation with 330 yards per game.

Virginia Tech should match up well with the Canes, though, seeing as the Hokies are No. 9 in passing defense (174 yards allowed per game) this season.

Writer’s Prediction: Virginia Tech wins, 28-24, but Tulsa covers (+13.5).

Foster Farms Bowl – Nebraska (5-7) vs. UCLA (8-4) (9:15 PM ET)

Nebraska and UCLA averaged an identical 32.5 points per game this season, so the difference between the two in this bowl game will likely be on settled on the defensive end. The Bruins just so happen to hold the edge in that side of the ball, giving up just 25 points per game, and 4.9 yards per play (24th in the nation).

Writer’s Prediction: UCLA (-6.5) wins, 35-24.

Monday, December 28

Military Bowl – Navy (9-2) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4) (2:30 PM ET)

Pitt has one of the better run defenses in the country, surrendering just 126 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns this season. However, that unit will have a tough time trying to slow down Keenan Reynolds and the Navy triple-option offense, which averaged a whopping 36.2 points and 319.2 rushing yards per game.

Writer’s Prediction: Navy (-3.5) wins, 31-21.

Quick Lane Bowl – Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7) (5:00 PM ET)

Central Michigan possibly has a future NFL quarterback in Cooper Rush under center. Rush threw for 3,703 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a junior. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s secondary, which helped the Gophers to a top 15 pass defense (182 yards allowed per game) won’t be close to full strength due to injuries.

Writer’s Prediction: Central Michigan (+6) wins, 34-27.

Tuesday, December 29

Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force (8-5) vs. California (7-5) (2:00 PM ET)

Cal has the weapons through the air – led by potential top NFL pick Jared Goff (354 passing yards per game, 37 touchdowns) – to tear through Air Force, who has a capable pass defense (190 yards allowed per game). But the Falcons have the second-most productive running game in the nation (322 yards per game), which the Golden Bears likely won’t have any answer for.

Writer’s Prediction: Air Force (+7) wins, 38-35.

Russell Athletic Bowl – Baylor (9-3) vs. North Carolina (11-2) (5:30 PM ET)

Jarrett Stidham won’t make his return for Baylor against North Carolina, but the Bears still have a prolific ground game (300 yards per game) that can carry an offense that led the country in points for the third year running. UNC’s own offense (40.9 points) is nothing to sneeze at, either, and between Maquise Williams and Chris Johnson, the senior Williams has a more proven track record of coming up big.

Writer’s Prediction: North Carolina (+3) wins, 44-35.

Arizona Bowl – Colorado State (7-5) vs. Nevada (6-6) (7:30 PM ET)

Colorado State wide receiver Rashard Higgins (66 catches, 933 yards, eight TDs) is arguably the one bright light in a game that features two pretty mediocre teams. The Rams are pretty useful on the ground as well (195.8 rushing yards per game), and will be going up against a Nevada run defense that’s been gashed for 524 rushing yards and six touchdowns in its last two games – both losses.

Writer’s Prediction: Colorado State (-3) wins, 32-28.

Texas Bowl – LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5) (9:00 PM ET)

LSU’s Leonard Fournette didn’t exactly finish the season with a flourish, but he still led the nation with 158 rushing yards per game, which is quite the feat. He’ll get his chance to end the season on a high as he faces Texas Tech, which features the third-worst run defense in the entire country (271.8 rushing yards allowed per game, 42 touchdowns).

Writer’s Prediction: LSU (-7) wins, 38-27.

Wednesday, December 30

Birmingham Bowl – Auburn (6-6) vs. Memphis (9-3) (12:00 PM ET)

Auburn’s running game finally perked up in November, as it averaged 228 yards in four games. Running the ball effectively has been the way to beat Memphis this season. But with quarterback Paxton Lynch (3,670 yards, 28 touchdowns with just three interceptions), Memphis has the offensive firepower to blow Auburn away. Memphis averaged 42.7 points per game, good for seventh in the country.

Writer’s Prediction: Memphis (+2.5) wins, 40-33.

Belk Bowl – Mississippi State (8-4) vs. North Carolina State (7-5) (3:30 PM ET)

As far as college quarterbacks go, NC State’s Jacoby Brissett (2,448 yards, 19 TDs, four INTs) is pretty decent. But Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott, who threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions to go with 541 yards rushing and 10 scores, is on the elite level, which gives the Bulldogs a very big advantage in their matchup.

Writer’s Prediction: Mississippi State (-5.5) wins, 37-31.

Music City Bowl – Louisville (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (8-4) (7:00 PM ET)

Louisville’s offense (28.8 points per game) has been pretty middling this season no thanks to some shaky quarterback play, but the defense has actually been one of the better units in the country. With Texas A&M now without Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, who both transferred out of the program, the Cards defense should have a much easier time handing the once-feared Aggies attack.

Writer’s Prediction: Louisville (-2.5) wins, 28-20.

Holiday Bowl – USC (8-5) vs. Wisconsin (9-3) (10:30 PM ET)

Wisconsin’s scoring defense (13.1 points allowed per game) is the best in the nation, and should keep the Badgers within striking distance in their bowl game against USC. However, the offense has been far less reliable, especially compared to the Trojans’ attack, which has averaged 35 points per game thanks to the talents of quarterback Cody Kessler and wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Writer’s Prediction: USC (-3) wins, 28-20.

Peach Bowl – Florida State (10-2) vs. Houston (12-1) (12:00 PM ET)

Greg Ward Jr. has been truly outstanding in orchestrating a Houston attack that has averaged 40.6 points per game this season, 12th in the country. But Florida State has a very solid defense that has allowed just 15.8 points (fifth in the nation), and has the athletes to contain Ward’s explosiveness as a runner.

Writer’s Prediction: Florida State wins, 31-27, but Houston (+7) covers.

Orange Bowl – Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1) (4:00 PM ET)

Talk about two well-balanced teams. Clemson averages 38.5 points (15th in the country) and allows 20.2, while Oklahoma averages 45.8 (third) and gives up 20.8 (21st). Both teams also have elite level quarterbacks in Heisman Finalists Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield.

However, the Sooners are much more prolific at running the football (235 rushing yards per game) than the Tigers, which could prove to be a significant edge in an otherwise evenly-matched contest.

Writer’s Prediction: Oklahoma wins, 34-31, but Clemson (+3.5) covers.

Cotton Bowl – Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan State (12-1) (8:00 PM ET)

There are few (if any) front sevens that can stop Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, but Michigan State’s (113 rushing yards allowed per game) should come the closest to at least slowing him down. Meanwhile, Connor Cook (2,921 yards, 24 TDs, five INTs) is also one of the few quarterbacks with the blend of talent and experience that can roll with the Crimson Tide defense.

Writer’s Prediction: Alabama wins, 27-20, but Michigan State (+9.5) covers.

Friday, January 1

Outback Bowl – Northwestern (10-2) vs. Tennessee (8-4) (12:00 PM ET)

Tennessee is a very capable offensive team, averaging 34.3 points per game.  A large part of that offense is predicated on the running game, which ran for 223.5 yards per game. Northwestern, though, is an excellent defensive team. The Wildcats have limited opponents to just 16.4 points, while giving up just 117.8 yards on the ground.

Writer’s Prediction: Tennessee wins, 24-20, but Northwestern (+8) covers.

Citrus Bowl – Florida (10-3) vs. Michigan (9-3) (1:00 PM ET)

Florida (16.5 points allowed per game) and Michigan (17.2) both have two of the stingiest defenses in the nation, which will make points pretty hard to come by in their matchup. Michigan’s offense, while unspectacular, still put up 34.5 points per game in November, while Florida’s could only average a pitiful 13.8, which was 119th out of 128 Division-I schools for the month.

Writer’s Prediction: Michigan (-4.5) wins, 27-13.

Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1) (1:00 PM ET)

Aside from the Michigan State game which involved some questioning play-calling, Ohio State has been able to run the ball very effectively all season long, averaging 242 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has had its fair share troubles defending the run. The Irish rank a middling 65th in run defense, giving up 166.8 yards per game.

Writer’s Prediction: Ohio State (-6.5) wins, 37-31.

Rose Bowl – Iowa (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2) (5:00 PM ET)

With Christian McCaffrey leading the way, Stanford has been one of the better running teams in the country, racking up 225 yards per game on the ground. Iowa, though, showed in the Big Ten championship game that its run defense is truly elite. The Hawkeyes are giving up just below 115 rushing yards per game, top-10 in the nation.

Writer’s Prediction: Stanford wins, 34-28, but Iowa (+7) covers.

Sugar Bowl – Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Ole Miss (9-3) (8:30 PM ET)

Both Oklahoma State and Ole Miss can light up the scoreboard, with the Cowboys putting up 41.2 points per game (ninth in the country) and the Rebels not far behind with 40.3 (14th).

Writer’s Prediction: Ole Miss (-7) wins, 44-31.

Saturday, January 2

TaxSlayer Bowl – Georgia (9-3) vs. Penn State (7-5) (12:00 PM ET)

For two programs of Georgia’s and Penn State’s stature, they sure can’t score these days. The Bulldogs averaged a mere 20.8 points in four games during the month of November, while the Nittany Lions were even worse with just 17.7 in their three games.

Georgia, though, has held up its end of the bargain on defense, giving up just 10 points per game over the last four. Penn State, on the other hand, has coughed up 35.3 points to its opponents.

Writer’s Prediction: Georgia (-6.5) wins, 27-20.

Liberty Bowl – Arkansas (7-5) vs. Kansas State (6-6) (3:20 PM ET)

Despite a valiant effort to win its final three games to gain bowl eligibility, the truth of the matter is that Kansas State hasn’t been much good this season, particularly against the pass. The Wildcats have given up 283 passing yards per game (120th in the nation) with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

On the other side, senior Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen (3,125 yards, 29 TDs seven INTs) has the SEC’s most effective passer, and should be able to flourish in such an advantageous matchup.

Writer’s Prediction: Arkansas (-11) wins, 37-21.

Alamo Bowl – Oregon (9-3) vs. TCU (10-2) (6:45 PM ET)

Oregon (43.2 points per game) and TCU (41.7) both know their way to the end zone. The Horned Frogs arguably have the better quarterback with Trevone Boykin, who is finally healthy after suffering an ankle injury at the end of the regular season.

The Ducks’ Vernon Adams has been sensational, though, after returning from his injury problems. He’s thrown at least two touchdowns in his last six games (all wins) and has thrown for 300 yards or more in four of his last five.

Writer’s Prediction: Oregon (PK) wins, 45-37.

Cactus Bowl – Arizona State (6-6) vs. West Virginia (7-5) (10:15 PM ET)

A lot of things have gone wrong in Arizona State’s season, but pass defense has been chief among them. The Sun Devils have been the second-worst at defending the pass, giving up 321.7 yards per game with 30 touchdowns.

They won’t have to worry too much about getting burned through the air by West Virginia, though. The Mountaineers are a middling 61st in passing offense, averaging 228 yards with 21 touchdowns.

Writer’s Prediction: Arizona State (PK) wins, 35-31.

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