Tips on How to Pick a Perfect March Madness Bracket – Sort Of

A perfect March Madness bracket is like Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament: it’s never happened. Why else would Warren Buffett so confidently put up $1 billion for one? The odds are very much stacked in his favor.

Thankfully, you don’t have to be perfect to win your office pool. Here are ten practical tips to help you fill out your March Madness bracket.

10 Tips to Get You Closer to Picking a Perfect March Madness Bracket

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]1. Never bet on the 16-seed

Amidst all the zaniness of the Madness, this one trend holds true. 16-seeds are 0-116 all-time. Don’t be the hero who thinks this will be the year a #16 David topples a #1 Goliath.

2. Pick a 2-seed upset in the 2nd round

2-seeds have been historically vulnerable to second-round upsets. The 10-seed is 21-31 all-time against the 2-seed.

3. Never have all #1’s in Final Four

It’s tempting to just ride the #1 seeds into the Final Four. But keep in mind that only once in history has the tournament left all four #1 seeds in the Final Four (2008). Just ask Gonzaga last year or Kansas in 2010 how beatable a #1 seed can be.

4. Put at least one #1 in the Final Four

At the same time, it’s imperative to have at least one #1 seed making the Final Four. All but three Final Fours (1980, 2006, 2011) have included a 1-seed.

5. 12 is greater than 5

At this stage, having a 12-seed beating a 5-seed has become more of a rule than an actual tip, but it bears repeating. At least one 12-seed has toppled a 5-seed in 22 of the last 24 years. Last year’s tournament even saw the 12-seeds go 3-for-4 against the 5-seeds.

6. Cinderella expires in Week 2

Cinderella teams are what make March Madness so compelling. But don’t get too carried away by betting the farm on the next FGCU. History has proven that Cinderella’s carriage typically turns into a pumpkin after the Sweet 16. No seed lower than #12 has ever moved on to the Elite Eight.

7. Be on injury watch

In the days leading up to the tournament, keep an eye on major injuries to key players. Any weak links could see a tournament favorite dumped  early. Arizona an early example this year. The Wildcats, once +600 favorites for the title are now +1,000 to win after the injury to Brandon Ashley.

8. National champs are easy as 1, 2, 3

If your eventual national champion is not seeded either 1, 2 or 3, make an adjustment. 23 of the last 24 champions have been seeded #3 or higher, including the last 15 in a row.

9. View KenPom.com’s Ratings

Should you want to narrow down the pool of potential national champions even further, check out KenPom.com. The site provides advanced statistical analysis of college basketball, and the 1st or 2nd-ranked team in its ratings have gone on to win it all in nine of the eleven years.

Interestingly, KenPom has undefeated #1 Syracuse (currently a +500 favorite to be crowned national champion) way down in 5th on its rankings.

10. Get lucky

These tips are all well and good, but the two kids who almost perfected their March Madness brackets most likely didn’t have access to this information, and look how their brackets panned out.

Sometimes in life, all the data and statistical evidence in the world can’t beat pure chance and dumb luck.  In a 64-team tournament, anything can and does happen. After all, there’s a reason it’s called March Madness.

With that said, good luck! And don’t forget to place all your college basketball bets at Top Bet, America’s top online sportsbook.
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