UFC on Fox 21: Maia vs. Condit Predictions, Picks and MMA Betting Preview – August 28, 2016

No. 1 contender status in the UFC welterweight division will be on the line as Demian Maia and Carlos Condit face off in the main event of UFC on Fox 21. Maia-Condit is set to be an intriguing matchup of styles, much like the other fights on the main card. Read on below as we break down each of those four fights and see who will come out on top.

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UFC on Fox 21: Maia vs. Condit Main Card Preview

Main Event

Welterweight: Demian Maia (EVEN) vs. Carlos Condit (-130)

Why Maia will win: Maia is a bit one-dimensional, but that one dimension is world-class. Maia is a master Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, and the best in mixed martial arts today.

If/when he takes his opponent down to the mat, he’s absolutely deadly. Just ask his last three opponents – Neil Magny, Gunnar Nelson, and Matt Brown. He schooled both Magny and Brown on the mat before submitting them via rear-naked choke, and dominated Nelson – another BJJ black belt – en route to a unanimous decision victory. Maia has won five fights in a row overall.

Condit’s aggressiveness has often led to him getting taken down (see: his fights against/losses to Georges St-Pierre, Johny Hendricks, and Tyron Woodley). Maia will have his chances to take Condit down, and he won’t need too many of them to take control of the fight.

Why Condit will win: Condit is a former title contender who knows how to put people away. 28 out of his 30 career wins have been by stoppage – 15 by knockout and 13 by submission. However, he also has the cardio to go all five rounds if needed. One of his two decisions was a razor thin split decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a welterweight title bout last year.

Condit will have the obvious advantage on the feet over Maia, who has no interest in exchanging strikes with “The Natural Born Killer.” Condit possesses excellent kickboxing, and could utilize his kicks to maintain his distance from Maia. As long as the fight stays on the feet, the ever-creative Condit with be a threat to land a big punch, knee, elbow, or whatever body part, that can knock Maia out.

Writer’s Prediction: Condit (-130) manages to successfully counter Maia’s submission attempts, and outlasts the Brazilian to grab a split decision win.

Co-Main Event

Featherweight: Anthony Pettis (-200) vs. Charles Oliveira (+160)

Why Pettis will win: “Showtime” Pettis is still a very dangerous fighter. With his excellent kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, the former lightweight champ is a threat to finish the fight either on the feet (seven career KOs) or on the mat (eight submissions).

While his three-fight losing skid may look bad, don’t forget that those losses came to the current and former lightweight champions (Eddie Alvarez and Rafael dos Anjos) as well as the No. 4-ranked lightweight (Edson Barboza).

Furthermore, Pettis was a small lightweight to begin with and should have no problems making 145 lbs. Oliveira, on the other hand, has missed weight three times since dropping down to featherweight.

Why Oliveira will win: “Do Bronx” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and is as deadly as they come on the mat. 13 of his 21 career wins have come via submission, including his last two wins over Myles Jury and Nik Lentz (both guillotines). He’s 5-1 in his last six fights, with his lone loss a freak injury stoppage against Max Holloway.

Pettis has consistently struggled against opponents who apply pressure on him, so Oliveira will have a clear blueprint to follow in beating “Showtime.” Oliveira will also likely be the bigger man than Pettis, and his size advantage should help him get “Showtime” down to the mat where he wants him.

Writer’s Prediction: Oliveira (+160) overpowers Pettis and claims a big unanimous decision win.

Women’s Strawweight: Paige VanZant (-220) vs. Bec Rawlings (+170)

Why VanZant will win: Bec Rawlings figures to be an advantageous matchup for VanZant, who is a very aggressive fighter. VanZant utilizes her excellent cardio and relentless wrestling into wearing her opponents out. Look for her to do the same in this fight and neutralize Rawlings’ main strength – her boxing – by engaging her in the clinch early and often.

Why Rawlings will win: Rawlings is more renowned as a striker, but she’s pretty nifty on the mat as well. Four of her seven career wins have come via submission. If VanZant does decide to take the fight down to the mat, Rawlings will be a threat to get the stoppage. And if the fight is kept standing, she has enough boxing skills to keep her distance against VanZant to eke out a possible decision win.

Writer’s Prediction: VanZant (-220) overwhelms Rawlings en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Lightweight: Jim Miller (+125) vs. Joe Lauzon (-155)

Why Miller will win: Well, he did it the first time the two fought. Miller was able to bloody up Lauzon early on in the fight back, and rolled to a pretty convincing unanimous decision win.

Of course, that was four years ago, and Miller has since gone 2-4 in his last six fights. But three of those four losses have been against high-quality opposition. Furthermore, Lauzon’s predominantly standup style matches up well with Miller, who has a bit more power in his punches.

Why Lauzon will win: Despite his inconsistency in recent fights, Lauzon will come into the bout in much better form than Miller. He’s coming off a terrific Performance of the Night in UFC 200 as he finished Diego Sanchez, who defeated Miller in his previous fight.

Lauzon has always been a well-conditioned fighter, while Miller has slowed considerably as his most recent fights have worn on. The longer the fight goes on, the better Lauzon’s chances of outlasting Miller.

Writer’s Prediction: Lauzon (-155) gets his revenge and edges Miller via split decision.

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