UEFA Champions League Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona Predictions, Picks, and Preview – Quarterfinals Second Leg – April 13, 2016

Atletico Madrid missed a golden opportunity to deal a knockout blow to the defending champs. They had Barca on the ropes early in the first leg, only for Fernando Torres’ red card to spur a Barca comeback. Despite their 2-1 deficit, though, Atleti still have more than a puncher’s chance at home. Can Diego Simeone’s men finally end their losing skid against their Spanish rivals and book a place in the semis?

Read on below for our preview of this very intriguing all-Spanish Champions League quarterfinal second leg. Meanwhile, check out Wednesday’s other Champions League action with our preview of Benfica vs. Bayern Munich.

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Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona Preview

Where: Estadio Vicente Calderon, Madrid, Spain

When: Wednesday, April 13, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Atletico Madrid +212 vs. Barcelona+113, tie +212; total 2.5 – view all UEFA Champions League lines

TV Broadcast: FS1

Betting on Atletico Madrid

It’s not a stretch to say that up until Fernando Torres’ crucial red card in the first leg, Atletico were the better team against Barcelona. They were one goal up care of Torres’ well-taken strike, while their defense was executing manager Diego Simeone’s gameplan perfectly by pressing Barca well and making itself very hard to break down.

Atletico will now head into the second leg without the suspended Torres and face +325 odds to go through to the Champions League semifinals. But with that very important away goal in hand, Atleti can advance with a 1-0 win, which is definitely not out of the realm of possibility, especially at home.

Of course, they’ve been able to pull off that scoreline exactly once in the last six years, but it just so happened to come in the home leg of their famous quarterfinal victory over Barca back in 2014. And with Barca in such bad form at the moment, the timing couldn’t be better for another upset.

Altetico must be careful not to concede an away goal, but their defense has been one of the toughest to break down in all of Europe on home soil this season. They’ve conceded only seven goals in 15 La Liga home matches, and just two in four in the Champions League.

The loss of an in-form Torres will be huge, but with Antoine Griezmann and Koke both playing magnificently, Atleti won’t be short on attacking options. Griezmann netted once again over the weekend, his ninth goal in his last 11 appearances.

Meanwhile, Koke also scored in Atletico’s last match, and has supplied four assists in his last three, which includes the through-ball to Torres’ goal in the first leg. Koke scored that famous goal to beat Barca back in 2014, and also scored at the Camp Nou earlier this season.

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Betting on Barcelona

For a team of Barcelona’s greatness, this is now crisis mode. The reigning Spanish champions have now gone winless in their last three games in La Liga, and have lost the last two in a row. Their lead at the top of the table has shrunk to just three points. Meanwhile, they were hardly convincing against an 11-man Atletico and needed some help from the Torres sending off to win, 2-1, in the first leg.

But the bottomline is that they won against Atleti, again. That’s now seven consecutive wins over the Rojiblancos in all competitions, including three by the same 2-1 score this season. With a sample size that significant, one might say they just have Atleti’s (and Simeone’s) number.

They’ll be big -450 favorites to progress to another Champions League semifinal, since they don’t have to win the second leg away from home. A draw of any scoreline will be enough to comfortably see them through.

A lot has been made of Lionel Messi’s current goal drought for Barcelona, which has now reached 362 minutes. But are you really willing to bet against the best player in the world to end his barren spell sooner rather than later?

Even if he does fail to get on the scoresheet again, he can still affect the game in so many different ways. His mere presence on the pitch will make his strike partners, Neymar and Luis Suarez (three goals against Atletico this season), better.

Writer’s Prediction

Atletico can only draw (+212) 1-1, which is enough to see Barca through.