Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets National League Championship Series Game 1 Prediction, Picks and Preview – October 17, 2015 – Betting Preview and Prediction

Nope. It’s not going to be Jake Arrieta starting for the Chicago Cubs this coming Saturday, when the team makes its first National League Championship game since 2003. Instead, the Cubs will rely on the $155-million arm of Jon Lester. The Cubs have beaten the New York Mets seven times this year, sweeping their home-and-away regular season series, which should be a big confidence booster for Chicago.

However, those meetings happened before the All-Star break when the Mets weren’t THIS Mets. For the record, New York averaged just 3.5 runs per game in the first half, before Yoenis Cespedes arrived at Queens and led the Mets’ offense into scoring 5.1 a contest post All-Star break.

Will Lester be able to hush the Mets? Or will New York take advantage of its home field advantage and draw first blood in the 2015 National League Championship Series?

For more baseball, you can also read our preview of Game 1 of the ALCS series between the Blue Jays vs. Royals.
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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Preview

Where: Citi Field, Flushing

When: Saturday, October 17, 2015

Line:  Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – view all MLB lines

TV Broadcast: FOX

Betting on the Chicago Cubs

[sc:MLB240banner ]General manager Theo Epstein is looking more and more like Chicago’s messiah every postseason win of the 2015 Cubs. And with Jon Lester on the mound for Game 1 of the NLCS, the Cubs will lean on Epstein’s biggest offseason acquisition to take them closer to finally ending the franchise’s 107-year World Series drought.

Lester pitched well in his first start in this postseason, but his performance in Game 1 of the NLDS against St. Louis wasn’t enough to save the Cubs from losing, 4-0. In that game, Lester went seven-plus innings long, allowing three earned runs on five hits, while striking out nine.

Lester is a proven playoff performer so there’s no pushing the panic button for the Cubs. In 91 1/3 career postseason innings, Lester has a 6-5 record and a 2.66 ERA in 91.1 postseason innings thus far in his career. His chances of improving that record come Saturday looks bright, considering that Lester is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against the Mets this year.

In any case, the Cubs’ bullpen will have to ready to answer the call. Chicago’s relievers have been dependable over the last several weeks, as the unit has posted a 2.57 ERA since September.

Backing Lester in Game 1 is the Cubs’ explosive offense that has been taking opposing pitchers to the woodshed. So far in the postseason, the Cubs lead all teams with 12 home runs, a 506 SLG, and .823 OPS.

Chicago’s power was on full display in its NLDS series-clinching 4-1 win over the Cards on Tuesday, as Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber each launched a homer. Schwarber has been a monster at the plate this postseason. He has three home runs and five RBIs on 7-for-13 hitting since the wild card game. Dexter Fowler, meanwhile, is also solid atop the order, as he is 6-for-20 (.300) with a couple of taters in five games.

Chicago is 9-1 in its last 10 road games.

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Betting on the New York Mets

The Mets are going home… to host Game 1 of the NLCS. After completing an upset of the Dodgers in the NLDS, via a 3-2 victory on Thursday, the Mets head back to Queens, where Mets fans will continue to watch their team play in October.

Jacob DeGrom outdueled LA ace Zack Greinke in Game 5 of the NLDS, as the long-locked pitcher allowed two runs on six hits, while striking out seven in six innings of mound duty. While the Mets haven’t announced yet who their starter will be in Game 1 against Chicago, it’ll likely be Matt Harvey. Harvey will have five days of rest by the time the NLCS begins on Saturday.

Harvey is looking to double up on his 1-0 record this postseason following the Mets’ 13-7 win over the LA in Game 3 of the Dodgers’ series. The righty was far from excellent in that game, yielding three earned runs on seven hits in only five innings. Harvey was lucky that the Mets’ offense was firing on all cylinders that night, scoring a team-postseason record 13 runs.

Harvey, however, has shown he can keep the Cubs in check. He tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, albeit in a 2-1 loss at Wrigley Field way back in May 13. Harvey hasn’t faced the Cubs since, and this time around, he is hoping that the Mets’ pitcher-friendly park can help him stymie Anthony Rizzo and company.

Harvey finished the regular season with an 8-3 record, a 2.23 ERA, and a .216 opponents’ batting average in 17 starts at Citi Field.

Over at the plate, the Mets are counting on Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy to continue swinging the bat well. Granderson is 7-for-18 (.389) with five RBIs this postseason. He’s also been a tough out, as he has just one strikeout and three walks. Furthermore, Granderson is 12-for-44 (.273) in his career opposite Lester. Murphy, on the other hand, is 7-for-21 (.333) with three booming homers, including the go-ahead solo tater he hit in Game 5 against the Dodgers.

The under is 4-1 in the Mets’ last five home games.

Writer’s Prediction

New York wins, 3-2.

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