Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks and NFL Betting Preview – October 18, 2015

Believe in the Bengals yet? If that dramatic come-from-behind overtime win at Seattle wasn’t enough to convince you of Cincy’s chops, nothing will. Nevertheless, the 5-0 Bengals have another test to further their Super Bowl credentials next Sunday when they take on the Buffalo Bills on the road. The injury-hit Bills are missing their key weapons on offense, but can their defense step up to tame the unbeaten Bengals?

Read on below for our preview of the Bengals-Bills showdown. Meanwhile, see what some other undefeated teams will be up against in Week 6, as we preview the Patriots vs. Colts and the Broncos vs. Browns.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Preview

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo

When: Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM ET

Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills (+3.5); total 42.5 – view all NFL lines

TV Broadcast: CBS

Betting on the Cincinnati Bengals (5-0)

Talk about statement wins. Down 17 in the fourth quarter at Seattle against a terrific Seahawks defense, the Bengals’ unbeaten record looked all but over. But Andy Dalton would not be denied. He threw for 331 yards and had three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) to lead the Bengals to the stunning 27-24 comeback win in overtime. The 5-0 Bengals are now 4-0-1 ATS.

[sc:NFL240banner ]Dalton didn’t quite have the clean pocket he enjoyed through the first month. He was sacked four times and threw just his second interception of the season against the Seahawks’ outstanding defense. But this performance was definitely an eye-opener in terms of Dalton showing he’s capable of performing under pressure.

The Bills will certainly look to put Dalton under a lot of pressure in Buffalo, but the Bengals’ terrific offensive line should give Dalton enough time in the pocket to pick out his growing list of offensive weapons. Five different Bengals receivers, led by tight end Tyler Eifert (eight catches, 90 yards, two TDs) had at least five catches against Seattle, and four had at least 60 yards.

The Bengals were also able to move the ball well on the ground with Gio Bernard, who finished with 80 yards on 15 carries against the Seahawks. They should continue to run the ball relatively well against a Bills run defense that was all the way down in 28th against the run per DVOA through four weeks.

Meanwhile, the absence of running backs LeSean McCoy and (possibly) Karlos Williams in the Bills backfield should allow the Bengals to key in on Tyrod Taylor and slow the entire Bills offense down.

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Betting on the Buffalo Bills (3-2)

The Buffalo Bills offense is down to its bare bones. With Karlos Williams, LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all out, quarterback Tyrod Taylor had to almost single-handedly carry the Bills offense against the Tennessee Titans.

Thankfully for Buffalo, the first-year starter was up to the challenge. Taylor garnered 185 of the Bills’ paltry 209 total yards on offense and scored both touchdowns (one passing, one rushing) as he led them from 10 points down to a razor-thin 14-13 win on the road.

With McCoy still a few weeks away from returning from his hamstring injury, and Williams’ status still uncertain with his concussion, Taylor could once again have very few weapons at the skill positions against a very solid Bengals defense. He’s always a threat with his scrambling ability, but apart from that, it’s tough to see how the Bills can move the ball consistently on Cincy.

(Update: Tyrod Taylor is suffering from a sprained MCL and is a major doubt to play. Even if he does play through the injury, he will be very limited in terms of his ability to scramble. E.J. Manuel is likely to start if Taylor can’t go.)

That puts a big burden on the Bills defense to keep things close. They are definitely capable of producing some fine performances (see: Week 1 vs. the Colts and Week 3 vs. the Dolphins in London). However, the defense has not quite reached the heights of last season just yet. Through Week 4, the Bills were just 11th in defensive DVOA.

They have also not been as stellar at home in recent weeks, as they lost 40-32 against the Pats and 24-10 against the Giants. Over their last 20 home games, the Bills are just 11-9 (12-8 ATS). The under, though, has gone 10-2 in their last dozen games at home.

Writer’s Prediction

The Bengals (-3.5) have too many weapons, which they use to beat the Bills, 21-17.
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