United States vs. Germany – World Cup 2014 – Group G Predictions and Betting Preview for June 26, 2014

The United States Men’s National Team was 60 seconds from qualifying for the Round of 16 at World Cup 2014, only for a brilliant cross from Cristiano Ronaldo to break up that dream, as Portugal tied the U.S. 2-2 in their Group G match on Sunday night.

Clint Dempsey and the Americans now head to Recife to meet an All-Star German team coming off a draw of their own against Ghana. This game between Group G’s leaders will now largely define which of the four teams move on to the knockout stage of the tournament. Can the resilient Yankees beat back the German juggernauts?

Read on for everything you need to know about this match, including breakdowns of the tiebreaker scenarios (which generally favor the U.S.), check out our preview for Ghana vs. Portugal here, and creating a betting account now to get into the action as the United States national team plays their biggest game of the tournament.
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USA vs. Germany, World Cup 2014, Group Stage Betting Preview and Prediction

Where: Arena Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil

When: Thursday, June 26, 2014, 9:00AM ET

Line: United States +650 at Germany -125; tie +135; total 2.5 – view all World Cup lines

What’s at stake:

If this game ends in a draw, both Germany and the United States will advance. Similarly, if the other final Group G game, Ghana vs. Portugal, which will be played simultaneously, ends in a draw, Germany and the United States will advance regardless of their result. If Germany and the U.S. tie, Germany would advance as the number one seed from Group G based on a superior goal differential.

The more complicated scenarios center around a Ghana victory and a U.S. loss. If the U.S. loses and Ghana wins, Germany would win the group and Ghana would be tied with America at four points each. The first tie breaker is goal differential, and if Ghana were to win by a goal and the U.S. were to lose by a goal, they would be tied in differential at 0. If Ghana were to win by two or more and the U.S. were to lose, Ghana would advance as the second seed from Group G.

For Portugal to advance, they would need to win by several goals and have the U.S. lose.

Bottom line: The U.S.M.N.T. needs a win, draw or Ghanaian loss or draw to advance. Germany is all but assured of advancing, it is a matter of what position they will finish in. Portugal and Ghana are eliminated with a U.S.-Germany draw.

Betting on the United States

Scenarios aside, the U.S. will have a good chance of advancing if they play as well as they did for 85 minutes on Sunday. Clint Dempsey, Jermaine Jones and Michael Beasley all stood tall against a banged-up Portugese side, and other than a very poor defensive effort from Geoff Cameron and a world-class play from Cristiano Ronaldo, were the superior team on all sides of the ball.

Dempsey in particular was a threat all over the offensive end of the pitch, filling in the primary striker role for injured forward Jozy Altidore. Dempsey, playing without a mask after breaking his nose against Ghana, had numerous attempts at goal and his clutch-if-awkward goal in the 81st minute gave the Americans a 2-1 lead.

With Jermaine Jones feeding him fine balls all night (as well as scoring a beautiful curling strike of his own), Dempsey is in fine form to lead the U.S. attack against the power-packed Germans.

In the meantime, Michael Bradley (one goal in six MLS games this season) needs to play better. The star midfielder repeatedly struggled to set up the frontline of the American attack, and missed a point-blank shot on a goal without a keeper, jamming his shot straight at Portugal’s last man back, Ricardo Costa. What’s worse, Bradley failed to safely clear the ball out in the final-minute sequence that led to Ronaldo finding Silvestre Varela for the epic tying goal.

Goalie Tim Howard showed up for the Portugal game in a major way, coming up with numerous key saves throughout the match. If Bradley and other key defenders like Cameron can limit the costly turnovers, Howard may be up to the challenge of the dangerous German offense.

Betting on Germany

U.S. manager Jürgen Klinsmann will face the team he used to play for and coach at the World Cup, Germany. It will be anything but a friendly reception from the Germans, who need to come away with a point after being held 2-2 by Ghana in their game on Saturday in Fortaleza.

If there’s one thing the Germans have proven over their last two World Cup Finals appearances, it’s that they are capable of scoring goals in droves. Most recently, the team hung four on the Portugese (a result that has all but eliminated Portugal in any tiebreaker scenario), and then added two more in the second half against Ghana.

Miroslav Klose scored his 15th World Cup goal to tie Brazilian hero Ronaldo for the all-time record, but the tall striker, who came on as a substitution against Ghana, may not appear in this game unless the Germans find themselves down late in the game. Instead, the offensive game planning will go through 2010 Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller, who continues to shine in 2014, having scored three times against Portugal and assisted beautifully on another.

Key in this game for the Germans will be the play of defenders Mats Hummels and Per Mertesacker. In a game that both teams need only to draw, avoiding any defenses lapses against the fiesty Dempsey will critical. If the German defenses can limit the U.S.’s chances more effectively than they did Ghana’s, the pressure will fall heavily on the Americans to defend Germany’s full range of attacking options.

Writer’s Prediction

With both teams playing for the draw, this game will be a cagey, defensive affair. Look for the game to go under the total, with Germany exposing Geoff Cameron for the lone goal and a German victory.
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