Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions, Picks, Odds and Preview – January 10, 2015

A little bit of history will be made on Saturday as the No. 5 Louisville Cardinals make their first-ever visit to Tobacco Road as part of the ACC. The Cards have made a winning start to conference play, while their next opponents, the No. 18 North Carolina Tar Heels, have had their problems with what has been one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

Can the Cardinals continue their winning ways at the Dean Dome? Read on below for our preview of this historic clash. And for more big ACC action, check out our preview of No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 13 Notre Dame.
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Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

Where: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill

When: Saturday, January 10, 2015, 2:00 PM ET

Line: Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels – view all NCAA Basketball lines

Betting on the Louisville Cardinals

The No. 5 Louisville Cardinals (14-1, 2-0) have made a winning start to life in the ACC, with wins over Wake Forest (85-76) and Clemson (58-52). However, as has been the case for most of the season, the Cardinals have just not been able to cover. The Cards are just 4-9-1 against the spread this season, and have failed to cover four games in a row.

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Senior guard Chris Jones has responded well to his benching at Long Beach State as punishment for an awful flop against Kentucky. Jones has scored 22 points in each of his last two games, while his backcourt partner Terry Rozier has contributed 33 points in those two games.

The Cardinals will need more steady scoring from their backcourt duo, especially as their offense (which is 105th in offensive efficiency) has been wildly inconsistent all season long.

But perhaps more importantly, the pressing of their guards will be key in stopping North Carolina’s danger man, point guard Marcus Paige. Meanwhile, Cardinal big men Montrezl Harrell and Mangok Mathiang should have the size and strength to contain UNC’s one-two punch of Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson down low.

Louisville’s defense is giving up just 64 points per game (top five in the country) but adjusted for pace, it actually has the second-best defense at 79.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.

Betting on the North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina’s 11-4 record doesn’t look too impressive, but bear in mind they’ve played the third-toughest schedule thus far this season. Their nonconference schedule was stacked with ranked opponents, including formidable mid-majors in Davidson and Butler.

Nevertheless, the Tar Heels are still expected to be better at home, which they haven’t been this season. Two of their four losses have come at the Dean Dome, with their most recent loss coming in Monday’s close 71-70 loss to Notre Dame as eight-point home favorites.

Marcus Paige continued what has been a vastly disappointing junior campaign with 15 points on just 6-for-17 shooting against the Irish. Paige, who was named the No. 1 guard in college basketball (and No. 2 player overall) by ESPN at the start of the season, is averaging just 13.5 points on a woeful 37 percent shooting.

The Tar Heels have still been fairly decent scoring the ball this season (80.1 points per game, 16th in the country) despite Paige’s struggles, but their point guard will have the burden of safely navigating past the Louisville press to get their offense going. If he accomplishes that, the Tar Heels have a shot at scoring on Louisville’s halfcourt defense.

Paige didn’t have much trouble against that vaunted press last season, when he torched then-No. 3 Louisville for 32 points on 9-of-12 shooting to lead the Tar Heels to a 93-84 upset of the Cardinals at the Dean Dome.

Writer’s Prediction

The Tar Heels take down the Cardinals at home. Create a betting account now and enjoy some of the best action college hoops has to offer.
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