UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – December 19, 2015

If last week’s amazing setup of three-straight events has you craving for more mixed martial arts action, then you’re in luck. UFC on Fox 17 ends the year for the world’s premier mixed martial arts organization with the lightweight title on the line. Champion Rafael Dos Anjos defends his belt for the first time against surging contender Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. There’s also the much anticipated heavyweight fight when Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem finally meet in the Octagon.

Fill your Saturday with plenty of action. Check out our complete previews for the NFL’s Jets vs. Cowboys and college football’s BYU vs. Utah Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl.
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UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone Preview

UFC Lightweight Championship: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone

Line: Rafael Dos Anjos (-200) vs. Donald Cerrone (+160) – view all UFC on Fox 17 lines

Rafael Dos Anjos (24-7) is peaking at the perfect moment. Mixed martial arts is heading mainstream with the surge of stars like Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor. He also managed to grab the belt from one of the most entertaining fighters in the Lightweight Division, Anthony Pettis.

[sc:UFC240banner ]Dos Anjos seized his opportunity to win UFC gold, battering Pettis from pillar to post in March in a clear-cut unanimous decision victory. The champion outlanded Pettis 90-54 on the feet, landing a steady dose of straight left hands and body kicks. He also had nine takedowns to smother Pettis on the ground.

Dos Anjos may use the same high-pressure approach in his rematch against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (28-6, 1NC). He beat Cowboy in 2013, landing a knockdown off a right hook in the first round as well as getting two takedowns. But Dos Anjos was still outstruck by a razor-thin margin of 40-39.

While the champ already beat Cerrone before, today’s Cowboy is a completely different animal. Cerrone is currently on an eight-fight win streak with victories over the likes of Evan Dunham, Edson Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez and former champion Benson Henderson.

Cerrone’s success hinges on the fact that he needs to keep fighters in the distance he’s most comfortable at, his kicking range. Getting into kicking range may be a tad difficult against a plodding pressure fighter like Dos Anjos. But getting to a fast start could help keep Cerrone in a rhythm. Cowbow has now found a way to get over his mental hurdles which have prevented him from pouring it on in opening moments of fights.

Once a slow starter, Cerrone can now unleash his full potential from the get-go. He’ll unload on vicious kicks to the head, body or legs while mixing in well-timed step knees. If Cerrone lands flush with his right head kick against a southpaw fighter like Dos Anjos, then he could very well end the fight by knockout.

Writer’s prediction: Cerrone (+160) gets stronger the deeper the fight goes. Cowboy wins a unanimous decision in an entertaining, back-and-forth war.

Heavyweight: Junior Dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem

Line: Junior Dos Santos (-360) vs. Alistair Overeem (+280) – view all UFC on Fox 17 lines

It’s been a long time coming. Junior Dos Santos (17-3) and Alistair Overeem (39-14, 1NC) finally meet in the Octagon. Once tabbed to tee off for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, two of the world’s top heavyweights square off for a chance at title contention.

Dos Santos remains dangerous with brutal one-punch knockout power, but has looked slow and flat footed after taking beatings from Cain Velasquez (twice) and Stipe Miocic in three of his last four fights. Overeem isn’t very durable, suffering knockout losses in three of his last six fights. But has since fought efficiently using his clinch and ground games.

Writer’s prediction: Look for Overeem (+280) to pressure Dos Santos towards the cage, where he can land his brutal knees to the body or kicks from distance. Overeem takes a lackluster unanimous decision.

Lightweight: Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz

Line: Michael Johnson (-500) vs. Nate Diaz (+350) – view all UFC on Fox 17 lines

Michael Johnson (17-9) is one of the fastest rising stars in the UFC Lightweight Division. But he suffered a hurdle recently, a controversial split decision loss to Beneil Dariush in August. Despite the loss, Johnson has continually improved his striking training under Henri Hooft as a part of the BlackZillians team. But his gas tank remains suspect especially deep into rounds.

Johnson may run into trouble against a returning Nate Diaz (18-10), whose high-pressure boxing has felled the likes of Donald Cerrone and Gray Maynard. Diaz also has the submission chops—he’s a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt—to strike fear in Johnson’s heart whenever the fight hits the mat.

Writer’s prediction: Diaz Stockton slaps Johnson in a beatdown. Diaz gets himself back in the win column as a +350 underdog.

Women’s Strawweight: Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Line:  Randa Markos (-180) vs. Karolina Kawalkiewicz (+150) – view all UFC on Fox 17 lines

Randa “The Quiet Storm” Markos (5-3) could sneak her way to the top of the Women’s Strawweight Division with a victory over one of the weight class’ top fighters, Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0). Markos entered the UFC scene with a dominant showing in The Ultimate Fighter Season 20 with victories over heralded fighters Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig. She’s due to get even better now training at the famed Tristar Gym in Montreal, Canada.

Markos should look much better training at Tristar, which is home to all-time great Georges St. Pierre and various top contenders. But she still has her hands full with Kowalkiewicz. The Polish strawweight has solid grappling chops that has served her well in compiling a seven-fight win streak. But she’s failed to look dominant in her last two fights, which both ended in split decision victories.

Writer’s prediction: Markos is too scrappy and too active to lose this fight. The Quiet Storm (-180) starts off the main card with an entertaining unanimous decision win.

Fox Sports 1 Prelims

Myles Jury (-140) will be too big and too strong in his featherweight debut against top contender Charles Oliveira.

C.B. Dolloway (-360) blitzes a fading veteran, Nate Marquardt. The Doberman wins by first round knockout.

Valentina Schevchenko (+180) makes the most of her short-notice UFC debut by battering Sarah Kaufman.

Josh Samman (-175) uses his ever-growing bag of tricks to beat the returning Tamdan McCrory by second round stoppage.

Nik Lentz (-120) outgrinds Danny Castillo is a unanimous decision victory.

Cole Miller (-105) submits a fading Jim Alers in the second round.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

Kamaru Usman (-250) uses his good ‘ole wrasslin to stomp Leon Edwards.

Hayder Hassan’s (-120) heavy hands will be too much for Vicente Lupe.

Francis Ngannou (-105) scores a quick first round knockout against fellow UFC newcomer Luis Henrique to start off the festivities.

It’s going to be one hell of a night to end the UFC’s stellar 2015. Create a betting account now and make quick cash on an explosive night of fights.
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