Can England Move On in World Cup 2014? Group D World Cup Tiebreaker Scenarios, Predictions and Preview

UPDATE: England has been eliminated. Costa Rica has turned Group D on its head and the second seed out of Group D will almost certainly go to the winner of Italy vs. Uruguay. But what does it matter, anyway? Costa Rica has knocked out England without even playing them.

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After Luis Suarez scored his second goal of a poorly-handled header by Steven Gerrard to seal Uruguay’s victory of England, English fans everywhere are wondering one thing: is it still possible that England moves on?

The short answer is yes. We’ve broken down the basic scenarios that could play out in Group D below, and thanks to Uruguay’s earlier loss to the minnows of Costa Rica, the scenarios are far from impossible. This could easily be the second-straight World Cup in which England under-performs its way over the qualification line and sneaks into the second stage. Key word being “could.”

Read on for all the basic Group D qualification scenarios and create a betting account now to get in on all the drama as Italy, Costa Rica, England and Uruguay continue to battle it out in one of the 2014 World Cup’s Groups of Death.
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Tiebreaker Scenarios for Group D World Cup 2014: How England Can Advance

FIFA Tiebreaker Rules

According to FIFA rules (section 42.5 of the World Cup regulations), rankings within a given group are determined by the following three factors:

Greatest number of points obtained in all the group matches;

Goal differential in the group matches;

Greatest number of goals scored in the group matches;

Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.

The first tiebreaker is points. Team get three points for a win, and one for a draw. Going into Italy’s match with Costa Rica on Friday, the Group D standings look like this, per FIFA.com:

England currently sits at the bottom of the table, as the only team without a win. With no points obtained in their two 2-1 losses to Italy and Uruguay, respectively, the Three Lions are looking at a situation where they need Costa Rica and Uruguay to lose, not draw, to Italy, just to have a chance. England could gain three points with a win over Costa Rica in their final group stage match on Tuesday, June 24, 2014.

Here’s a look at the key elements of each of the remaining Group D matches and how they affect the final group standings.

Italy vs. Costa Rica, Friday June 20, 12:00PM ET

[sc:Soccer240banner ]If Costa Rica can gain so much as a point against Italy, England would be eliminated. If Italy wins, as they are -187 favorites to do, England stays alive, and it is a three-way race for the second qualifying spot in Group D.

If Italy were to win, the amount of goals the Italians produce against Costa Rica could be critical – currently with a four-goal lead over England and a three-goal lead over Uruguay in goal differential, Costa Rica would help themselves trememendously to keep it close against Italy.

Italy vs. Uruguay, Tuesday June 24, 12:00PM ET

Presuming Italy defeats the overmatched Costa Ricans, the Azzurri would be in the drivers seat going into the final two matches of Group D. In the Uruguay vs. Italy match, a Uruguayan win or draw would eliminate England. Note the theme here: any points from Uruguay or Costa Rica in the remaining three Group D matches eliminates England.

A Uruguayan win would also even them with Italy at six points, again pushing things to a tiebreak to determine the first overall seed, a tie that Costa Rica could potentially join as well.

That said, the Italians will once again be favored to win this game, particularly if they’ve already dispatched Costa Rica. Similarly to Costa Rica’s game with Italy, goal differential could be critical: if Uruguay were to lose by one goal, for example, they would be tied in goal differential with England at -2. That would push the matter to the third tiebreak, goals for, where Uruguay would still have a two-goal edge in goals scored (if they’d scored once against Italy).

It gets tight in these hypotheticals, but the bottom line is this: if Uruguay and Costa Rica lose to Italy (who would then win the group with nine points), it would all come down to…

England vs. Costa Rica, Tuesday June 24, 3:00PM ET

If both Uruguay and Costa Rica loses, Tuesday’s game between England and Costa Rica would be the deciding fixture for Group D. An England win would tie them with Uruguay and Costa Rica on points, and the aggregate goal differential amongst the three teams would decide the top seed.

If two of England, Uruguay, and Costa Rica were to have the same goal differential after this match, it would come down to the amount of goals scored. Currently Costa Rica has the edge in that area, but by then… almost anything could happen. If England were to take the lead against Costa Rica, the game would likely become defined by a Champions League-style game, where both teams are playing for the aggregate score (as opposed to the particular outcome of that game) to determine who moves into the knockout stage.

Still with us? To summarize: a Uruguay or Costa Rica win against Italy would mean a tiebreak at the top. If either team draws Italy, and the other loses, the team with the Italian tie is likely moving on. And if no one beats Italy, a whole host of tiebreaks between England, Uruguay and Costa Rica breaks out. With England holding the final tiebreak in that scenario over Costa Rica (having hypothetically won the game against them), they would advance as a loss by Uruguay to Italy would put them at -2 or worse on differential, and a win by England would put them at -1 or better.

Bottom, bottom line: if Costa Rica and Uruguay both lose to Italy, and Costa Rica is outscored by three or more over their last two games (including a loss to England), England would advance. It’s as not-simple as that.

It’s complicated, but it’s possible. Have fun England fans. Oh, and you too, Uruguayan and Costa Rican supporters.
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