Will The Miami Heat Repeat? – Week of March 26, 2014

Bad stretch or not, the Miami Heat remain as the top favorites to win the NBA championship. Nonetheless, the losses are piling up for the Heat, and at a certain point those odds will lengthen. With a few weeks left in the regular season, will the Heat find enough time to fix/address the problems that have affected the team?

Read on for another of our weekly installments that wonder if Erik Spoelstra’s team has what it takes to run the table in the NBA playoffs.

Are the Heat in Trouble?

[sc:NBA240banner ]The Miami Heat haven’t looked this vulnerable all season. Following last week’s back-to-back wins against the Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers, the Heat appeared to have regained their championship form and looked poised to finish the final stretch of the season on a tear.

Alas, they lost their next game to the Atlantic Division’s bottom-feeding Celtics on the road, 101-96 last March 19. The loss at Boston was just another entry on a blemish-filled ledger for the Heat, as the team cannot seem to produce strong efforts in winnable games.

Miami has been formidable when playing at home, going 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at AmericanAirlines Arena, but the Heat seemingly shift to a lower gear on the road.  They’ve only won a single game thus far away from home this month – a 100-96 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in which the Heat failed to cover the 10-point spread.

When the Heat returned to South Beach after losing to Boston, they beat the Memphis Grizzlies in a game in which LeBron James didn’t have to carry much of the scoring load. James scored just 15 points, the lowest he’s had in more than a month. His low scoring output could be because Dwyane Wade played in that game, easing some of the burden off James.

The two top factors that could sabotage the Heat’s championship aspirations have been more pronounced this month than at any point of the season, and those are Miami’s weak inside presence and Wade’s health. Their odds to win the NBA Finals have reflected that, slipping to +250, 40 points higher than their +210 odds in February.

After losing to the Celtics, the Heat lost to New Orleans on the road despite James’ all-around excellence (25 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists). Wade sat out that game and the Heat did not have any answer for Anthony Davis and company who pounded them inside for 52 interior points. Again, Wade’s absence and a thin frontline were to blame.

As if to stay true to the home win- road loss trend, the Heat won at home in their last game against the equally struggling Portland Trail Blazers, 93-91.

The Heat close out their March schedule with a three-game road trip against Indiana, Detroit, and Milwaukee, before capping the month off at home versus Toronto. Knowing this team, they will show up against Indiana–a game in which Wade is expected to play–but could find a way to drop one or both of their games against the sub-.500 Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks.

With just 13 games left on the schedule, this is an important stretch for the Heat. If Wade looks strong and can help return the team to the potent perimeter that takes some of the pressure off their interior, the Heat could win out this run of games and solidify their play heading into the postseason.
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