Brazil vs. Ecuador – 2016 Copa America – Group B Predictions and Betting Preview – June 4, 2016

Brazil’s 2016 Copa America Centenario campaign begins with a matchup against its biggest challenger in Group B: Ecuador. The Ecuadorians have a very disappointing record at the Copa America, but can they kick off this year’s tournament with a big win over a much-weakened Seleção?

Get a complete breakdown of this Group B matchup below. Also, don’t forget to check out the other game in Group B, Haiti vs. Peru.

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Brazil vs. Ecuador Preview

Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena

When: Saturday, June 4, 10:00 PM ET

Line: Brazil -117 vs. Ecuador +295, tie +215; total: 2.5 – view all Copa America lines

TV Broadcast: Fox Sports 2

Betting on Brazil (-117)

Brazil’s build-up to this year’s Copa America has been wrought with problems. They were already without superstar Neymar, who only opted to play in the Rio Olympics this summer. Then, injuries robbed the team of Douglas Costa, a crucial attacking player with Neymar’s absence, and veteran striker Ricardo Oliveira.

Former World Player of the Year Kaka, who was brought in to replace Costa, was injured himself, while key defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo also begged off the team for personal reasons.

But even with these setbacks chipping away at the overall quality of the team, there’s a good reason Brazil is still a +450 favorite to win this year’s Copa America. Even without their full complement of Samba superstars, they should still have enough to overcome their biggest threat in Group B, Ecuador.

Manager Carlos Dunga can call on talented forwards like Hulk and Jonas, who finished as the fourth-leading scorer in Europe this season with 52 goals.

Attacking midfielders Willian and Philippe Coutinho were standout performers for their respective English Premier League clubs, and they will get their chance to shine as key players in the Seleção. The same goes for defensive midfielder Casemiro, who was outstanding in Real Madrid’s recent Champions League triumph over Atletico.

History will also be on Brazil’s side against Ecuador. The Brazilians have gone unbeaten in their last six meetings against La Tricolor (five wins, one draw) and have won all three Copa America meetings all-time.

Betting on Ecuador (+295)

Ecuador didn’t have the greatest Copa America campaign last year, as it lost its first two games of the tournament and crashed out in the group stage. It’s just the latest in a long line of disappointing performances for La Tricolor at the Copa. They haven’t gotten out of the group stage since 1997, and have long odds at +3,300 to win this year’s tournament.

There should a bit more confidence for this year’s campaign, though. The Ecuadorians are currently joint-top of COMNEBOL’s 2018 World Cup qualifying tournament.

The absence of striker Felipe Caicedo, the co-leading scorer in qualifying with four goals, will be a blow, but West Ham United striker Enner Valencia (14 goals in 24 caps) is more than capable of leading the Ecuador attack. He should get some decent service out wide with fellow EPL-based players Antonio Valencia (Manchester United) and Jefferson Montero (Swansea) marauding down the wings.

The key for Ecuador will be how aggressively they attack the Brazilians. Brazil’s definitely there for the taking, especially this watered down version. If the Ecuadorians show no fear in going at Brazil’s defense, which is hardly airtight, they should stand a very good chance of ending their long losing skid over the Seleção.

Writer’s Prediction

Ecuador gets a positive result as it holds Brazil to a 1-1 draw (+215).

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