Weekly EPL Predictions and Picks – Week 18

Oh where oh where does the time go? The calendar year 2014 is coming to a close as the Premier League season is already at the halfway point. And finally, another brutal holiday schedule which sees every team play an ungodly four games in a little over two weeks is set to conclude with a full slate of fixtures on New Year’s Day.

After seeing the entire top four drop points during the last set of fixtures, the first day of 2015 could yet deliver even bigger fireworks with some very tricky tests for the top teams. Let’s take a look through the most eye-catching games of the New Year bunch as we begin 2015 with a bang.

As always, expect some unique insight and analysis for those big matchups. Also, tune in for some bold predictions and be on the lookout for an upset alert. But please bear in mind that these are merely personal opinions of the writer and do not in any way reflect the thoughts or actual picks of Top Bet sportsbook or its oddsmakers.

For more in-depth analysis, check out our previews of the day’s marquee matchups, Southampton vs. Arsenal and Tottenham vs. Chelsea. And now, on to the picks!
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Top EPL Picks for Week 18

Game of the Week – Southampton vs. Arsenal (10:00 AM ET)

Line: Arsenal +137 at Southampton +162, draw +225; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

It wasn’t too long ago that Southampton’s dream season was falling to pieces after four straight league losses. But lo and behold, the Saints have risen from the grave and are undefeated in their last three with convincing wins over Everton and Crystal Palace, followed by a very well-earned draw against leaders Chelsea on Boxing Day.

[sc:Soccer240banner ]Unlike their counterparts in the NFL, these Saints are still pretty solid at home. They’re 6-2-2 at St. Mary’s, with their only two losses coming to the two Manchester clubs. They remain robust defensively, with manager Ronald Koeman continuing to push all the right buttons with a relatively threadbare squad.

That defense kept an Arsenal attack that’s scored the third-most goals this season in check for 89 minutes during their earlier meeting last month until Alexis Sanchez struck with the decisive goal. However, the Gunners will be without their two recognized strikers in Olivier Giroud (suspended) and Danny Welbeck (thigh injury), which could significantly dull their free-scoring ways.

But I see former Saint Theo Walcott as Arsenal’s ace in the hole. The speedy striker is back healthy after a knee injury and has been on the bench for their last couple of games. With Southampton’s defense likely running on fumes after the busy holiday period, Walcott’s pace and fresh legs could haunt his old team in this one.

Writer’s Prediction: Arsenal once again slip by the Saints and take it 1-0.

Co-Game of the Week – Tottenham vs. Chelsea (12:30 PM ET)

Line: Chelsea -170 at Tottenham +390, draw +260; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

There’s a reasonably sound argument that can be crafted for Tottenham actually taking something out of their clash with leaders Chelsea.

First, Chelsea haven’t been all too convincing away from Stanford Bridge. They’re just 5-1-4 on their travels this season, and are 1-1-1 in their last three. And second, Spurs are looking feisty since suffering that 3-0 away defeat at Chelsea in early December. They’ve gone undefeated in their last five (three wins, two draws), and most recently held Man United to a goalless draw at White Hart Lane.

However, anyone who watched that game saw United squander several goalscoring opportunities, which left Spurs sort of lucky to come away with a point.

Plus, if there’s one thing I’ve learned from years of watching Jose Mourinho teams, it’s that we they’re most dangerous when he’s angry. The Special One is particularly steaming after his side were denied a penalty in their 1-1 draw at Southampton due to an apparent dive by Cesc Fabregas.

Mourinho and his men will be properly pumped against Spurs a) to prove a point and b) to collect all three points and keep Man City at bay.

Writer’s Prediction: Chelsea triumphs 2-1 over Tottenham.

Stoke City vs. Manchester United (10:00 AM ET)

Line: Man United -127 at Stoke +295, draw +235; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

Man United players could be throwing lit-up firecrackers at one another and that would still be a less dangerous than their upcoming trip to Stoke on New Year’s Day. This just has all the makings of an upset waiting to happen. And if you’ll just excuse me one moment, I just need to yank this thingamajig like so…

*Best League in the Wooorld!! Upset Alert*

There we go. Ok, so on one hand, you have Stoke, who have looked mighty impressive in their most recent wins at Everton (1-0) and West Brom (2-0). The Potters have already sprung some major upsets this season, beating Man City away and Arsenal at home this season. And prior to that Arsenal win, they had played both Liverpool and Man United very close in close one-goal defeats away from home.

On the other hand, you have Man United, who just haven’t found a groove away from Old Trafford. The Red Devils have won just twice in nine away games thus far, and have drawn the last two at Aston Villa and at Tottenham. Big-money signing Falcao has been misfiring in front of goal for much of the season, while strike partner Robin van Persie has similarly been struggling.

I’m admittedly not all that stoked about taking Stoke, simply because I just can’t fathom them winning three games in a span of less than one week. But in case you haven’t heard, this is THE BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD! So I really should be prepared for anything. As should you. Prepare to be shocked.

Writer’s Prediction: Stoke shocks United, 2-1.

Lock of the Week – Liverpool vs. Leicester City (10:00 AM ET)

Line: Leicester City +675 at Liverpool -335, draw +370; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines

Things are finally starting to look up for Liverpool, who ended their mostly forgettable 2014 on a high. After clawing back a two-goal deficit to draw with Arsenal, the Reds reeled off back-to-back wins over Burnley and Swansea. The four goals they scored against the Swans are the most they’ve managed in a single game this season, a sign that their once-feared attack is finally close to resurgence.

Their offense couldn’t have asked for a better team to continue that upward trend as they next face bottom-side Leicester, who’ve conceded the most goals in the division. The Foxes finally won away from home this week, but it was against fellow strugglers Hull. When they’ve faced a half-decent team on the road (West Ham, Southampton, Swansea), they’ve lost by at least two goals.

I’m still not 100 percent sold on Liverpool as a team that will challenge for a Champions League place, but I’ll take them at Anfield against the bottom club any day of the week. Lock up Liverpool.

Writer’s Prediction:  Liverpool wins, 3-0. Take the Reds at -1, -1.5 against the spread for some added value.

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