Weekly EPL Predictions and Picks – Week 12

Nothing like an international break (the last of 2014, thank god!) to get everyone yearning for the return of some English Premier League football. Headlining this weekend’s action is none other than Arsenal vs. Manchester United, or what’s left of them anyway.

As always, I’ll guide you through the marquee matchups this week, providing all the insight and analysis you can’t find anywhere else, much like the comprehensive preview of Arsenal vs. Man United.

Please bear in mind, though, that the picks and opinions below are my own, and do not reflect any inside information or insights from the minds behind Top Bet’s sportsbook or lines.
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Top EPL Picks for Week 12

Game of the Week – Arsenal vs. Manchester United (Sat, Nov. 22, 12:30 PM ET)

Line: Manchester United +215 at Arsenal EVEN, tie +240; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

With all the players either injured or returning from injury between these two teams, it’s pretty tough to get a feel for this game simply because it’s hard to  know who’s actually going to play.

[sc:Soccer240banner ]We’re sure Arsenal’s Laurent Koscielny and Mesut Ozil and United’s Daley Blind and Marcos Rojo are out. The Gunners could have Mikel Arteta and Olivier Giroud back, likewise Jonny Evans, Phil Jones, Rafael, and Radamel Falcao for United, while Michael Carrick, Angel Di Maria and David De Gea are all questionable.

That’s quite a lot of uncertainty. But instead of wondering about what we don’t know, let’s focus on what we do know. We know that United’s already wobbly defense will be trotting out yet another centerback combination, and will be without its steady defensive midfielder.

We know that Alexis Sanchez has been on freaking fire, with six goals in his last four starts for Arsenal and two more goals in two starts for Chile during the international break.

We know that United is still winless away from home. And we know that Arsenal is still undefeated at the Emirates. See where I’m going with this?

Writer’s Prediction: Yup. Give me Arsenal to win over United, 2-1 at home.

Manchester City vs. Swansea (Sat, Nov. 22, 10:00 AM ET)

Line: Swansea +700 at Manchester City -370, tie +400; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines

In the previous edition of this column, I was all ready to sound the *Best League in the World!! Alert* and call Swansea to upset. Except I wussed out in the last minute and watched as the Swans came back to win in dramatic fashion over Arsenal. This week, I’m finally going to man up and… still not call a Swansea upset.

It was certainly tempting, seeing as City have been a mess over the last month or so. They couldn’t beat CSKA Moscow home or away in the Champions League, were beaten by West Ham, and could only draw with relegation-threatened QPR. If it weren’t for the red card against United, they might have gone winless in their last three league games.

But City is still tough to beat at home, and Swansea is a different animal on the road. The Swans have lost two out of their last three away from home, with just five goals in five games – the fewest among top-10 teams.

Writer’s Prediction: City just edge out Swansea, 1-0.

Lock of the Week – Aston Villa vs. Southampton (Mon, Nov. 24, 3:00 PM ET)

Line: Aston Villa +420 at Southampton -170, tie +245; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

Making their second-straight appearance as the Lock of the Week, I’ve just decided to ride this Southampton gravy train out. The Saints have just been too good for too long, and I just don’t see them falling apart against decidedly mediocre opposition like Aston Villa.

Perhaps the only thing that is a little concerning is Southampton’s away form. While the Saints have been heavenly in St. Mary’s (5-0-1 with 17 goals scored and one conceded), they’ve been merely mortal on the road (3-2-0 with six goals scored and four conceded).

On the flipside though, Villa are simply atrocious going forward. They’ve scored just five goals all season. That’s a goal every other game. That’s worse than bottom-club Burnley.

There’s a chance that Southampton isn’t this juggernaut that will keep winning all these games, even against less-than-stellar competition. But between Villa’s anemic attack and Southampton’s superb backline, there is just no way this game features more than two goals. Lock that baby up.

Writer’s Prediction: Another 1-0 win to Southampton.

Desperation Game of the Week – Hull vs. Tottenham (Sun, Nov. 23, 11:00 AM ET)

Line: Tottenham EVEN at Hull +230, tie +225; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

Ladies and gentlemen, presenting the newest feature on this column, the Desperation Game of the Week! As the name implies, this game sees one or both teams under immense pressure for a result, which is usually the recipe for some unexpected stuff to happen.

The fresh new manager smell has quickly turned foul for Mauricio Pochettino over at Tottehnam. Spurs have lost three out of their last four games, including their last two games at home. This weekend though, they travel away to Hull, who are themselves winless in their last four games and have lost two in a row.

It’s debatable which team needs this win more. On the one hand, Tottenham really need to get a move on if they intend to live up to the lofty expectations set for them this season. But on the other, Hull are coming off a humiliating loss to bottom club Burnley and need something pretty positive for everyone to remove that from their fans’ and their own memories.

Tottenham have the edge in quality, but I’m skeptical Pochettino has a handle of the situation. They definitely haven’t shown the toughness needed to grind out results, whereas Hull drew with Arsenal and Liverpool in consecutive away matches before losing two in a row. If I had to pick a winner, it’d likely be Hull.

Writer’s Prediction: But I’m not picking a winner. Instead, I see this game ending in a 1-1 draw.

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