Weekly EPL Predictions and Picks – Week 11

The last time Liverpool and Chelsea met in the league, the 2013-2014 Premier League title was still very much on the line, with Liverpool needing a win to keep their long-awaited championship hopes alive. But in what will forever be known as “The Slip“, Steven Gerrard and the Reds let the game – and the title – slip away from their grasp.

With Chelsea hot on the heels of the crown this year, will Liverpool slip up against the Blues once again? That big game headlines Week 11 of the EPL Predictions and Picks. As I do every week in this column, below I break down the biggest matchups of the week and offer up the best analysis, key stats, and predictions I can muster including my trusty “Lock of the Week,” amongst other sillinesses. Let’s get to it.

As always, note that the picks and opinions below are my own, and do not reflect any inside information or insights from the minds behind Top Bet’s sportsbook or lines. This is all about my brain and the soccer-obsessed
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Top EPL Picks for Week 11

Game of the Week: Liverpool vs. Chelsea (Sat, Nov. 8, 7:45 AM ET)

Line: Chelsea +111 at Liverpool +250, tie +235; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

It’s been a rough couple of months to say the least for Liverpool. Last year’s runners up have won just twice in their last seven league games, and one of those wins needed a last-gasp own goal against relegation-threatened QPR. And to think, some poor sap branded that QPR game as the his Lock of the Week!

[sc:Soccer240banner ]Liverpool’s new signings have not (yet) panned out at all, with Dejan Lovren and Alberto Moreno looking shaky in defense and Mario Balotelli, Adam Lallana, Lazar Markovic, et al. all failing to make an impact up front. The club’s overall confidence looks shot, and I don’t think their tactic of resting key players against Real Madrid midweek did much to build it up.

Chelsea were unexpectedly held to a 1-1 draw away at Maribor, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. So what if they weren’t up to smashing some minnows and expending extra energy better spent on Liverpool? Chelsea are too organized, too ruthless and just plain too good for Liverpool. And star striker Diego Costa (nine goals) will be closer to full fitness after missing the Manchester United game. When he plays, Chelsea score goals.

Writer’s Prediction: Chelsea picks up a pretty comfortable 2-0 win at Anfield.

Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace (Sat, Nov. 8, 10:00 AM ET)

Line: Crystal Palace +950 at Manchester United -500, tie +450; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines

Everyone and their mom went out of their way to hand United a “moral victory” after their 1-0 derby loss to Man City, and deservingly so. Despite going down to 10 men and losing both their starting central defenders, United held firm and showed a lot of grit and determination as they went down fighting.

I sincerely wonder if another reshuffling at the heart of United’s defense is advisable, especially against a Crystal Palace side that has goals in it. The Eagles have scored 14 goals this season, currently the most among teams in the bottom half of the table.

Of course, Palace find themselves one place from the relegation zone because they’ve also conceded the second-most goals (19) in the division, which will be music to United’s ears. United have scored 10 goals in five home games this season, eight coming in their last three games – all wins.

United may be all sorts of banged up at the back, which could result in them conceding a goal or two. But I’m confident they’ve got more than enough going forward to still win this game by a comfortable margin.

Writer’s Prediction: Manchester United claims a 3-1 home win. Go ahead and take the total to go over 3.0 goals.

Lock of the Week – Southampton vs. Leicester City (Sat, Nov. 8, 10:00 AM ET)

Line: Leicester City +675 at Southampton -310, tie +345; total 3.0 – view all EPL lines

Allow me to just shut up for a moment and let the stats do the talking for why Southampton vs. Leicester is such a lock this week.

Southampton

Second from the top

Have won three games in a row with 10 goals scored and none conceded

Best defensive record in the league with five goals allowed

At home: 15 goals scored, one conceded in five games

Leicester City

Third from the bottom

Have lost three league games in a row and four of last five with just two goals scored

One goal in five away games

If you need any more help in translating these numbers, this might help: LOCK. THIS. GAME. UP. The Saints have been immaculate this season and have shown no sign of slowing down. The law of averages suggests they’ll regress to the mean one of these weeks, but I’ll be utterly shocked if that begins at home against this struggling Leicester team. So, once more for clarity: LOCK. IT. UP.

Writer’s Prediction: The Saints keep another clean sheet and get another home win.

Swansea vs. Arsenal (Sun, Nov. 9, 11:00 AM ET)

Line: Arsenal EVEN at Swansea +220, tie +235; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

Apologies for anyone eagerly awaiting the *Best League in World!!! Alert* but I don’t quite see a major upset in the cards worthy of ringing the upset-based BLITW alarm this week. However, Swansea vs. Arsenal may be the closest thing we do come to a potential shock result.

It really shouldn’t be a truly shocking result if Swansea does actually claim a home win over Arsenal, and the Swans are shockingly good value at +220 to win. Swansea are currently sixth in the table and have already beaten Manchester United at Old Trafford. They’ve got an improved defense which has kept two clean sheets in a row and has conceded just three goals in five home games thus far.

Their midfield, with unsung heroes Gylfi Sigurdsson and Ki Sung-Yeung, can hold their own against Arsenal’s flashier names. And up front, Wilfried Bony (four goals) is the type of physical, aerially-powerful center forward that has historically given Arsenal all sorts of problems.

All that said, Arsenal have been pretty tough to beat this season. Only Chelsea has been able to claim all three points from them so far, and they’ve won two league games in a row, with Alexis Sanchez netting four of their five goals. But as their calamitous collapse against Anderlecht showed, their defense is just not to be trusted. Which is why I see this ending up with both teams sharing the spoils.

Writer’s Prediction: Swansea and Arsenal battle to a hard-fought 1-1 stalemate.