Weekly EPL Predictions and Picks – Week 14

It’s been a fun little stretch for the Premier League-viewing public as it was treated to two complete rounds of games in a span of five days, with another action-packed weekend coming in short order. But it hasn’t been as fun for Southampton, who have now dropped two in a row after facing two very tough teams in quick succession.

The Saints’ misery will finally end soon but it must first endure one last bit of suffering with the visit of the red-hot Red Devils of Manchester United. (See our complete preview of that game here.) That game headlines Week 14 of the Premier League season, along with a host of other entertaining games.

As always, I preview the best and most interesting matchups and offer analysis, picks as well as my weekly lock and upset special. But please remember, the opinions expressed in this column do not reflect Top Bet or its oddsmakers in any way, shape or form. And now, to the picks!
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Top EPL Picks for Week 14

Game of the Week – Southampton vs. Manchester United (Mon, Dec. 8, 3:00 PM ET)

Well, I guess it’s now safe to say that while Southampton are good, they’re not quite the title contenders that their second-place position in the table had suggested. Of course, there’s the obvious caveat that they just faced two of the top-five most talented teams in the league in a span of three days, a stretch any team would struggle with, and they face a third on Monday.

[sc:Soccer240banner ]And while the Saints were just simply outclassed at home by 10-man City, they were a little unlucky not to hang on for a draw as they conceded a late goal at Arsenal, which showed that they aren’t complete pushovers against the top teams. Even with the three goals they conceded to City, their record still shows just four goals allowed all season at home.

But I don’t see their luck changing any time soon as they face Manchester United at the exact worst time. Since their derby loss in early November, the Red Devils have reeled off four straight wins to climb to within a point of the third-place Saints. Confidence should be sky high for United, just as it might be pretty low for Southampton after enduring two different but equally demoralizing defeats.

They’re getting much healthier, much more comfortable playing manager Louis van Gaal’s style and much more likely to get all three points.

Writer’s Prediction: United rolls on with a 2-1 away win.

Lock of the Week – Newcastle United vs. Chelsea (Sat, Dec. 6, 7:45 AM ET)

One of the most realistic scenarios I can see that prevents leaders Chelsea from winning the league is an injury to their star striker, Diego Costa. He’s basically the single most irreplaceable part of the Chelsea team and losing him for an extended period of time would be potentially disastrous to their title hopes.

But after seeing the ease with which the Blues swept aside a talented and dangerous Tottenham team without Costa in the starting lineup, I’m starting to reconsider if there’s anything that can stop them at this point. His stand-ins, Didier Drogba and Loic Remy, scored two goals in their 3-0 win and offer the depth up front that they just didn’t have last season.

Now, Costa will be fresh and ready to be unleashed against a Newcastle team currently swinging back into the opposite direction with back-to-back losses after previous winning five straight. And with their Champions League fate already locked up, Chelsea will be free to devote their full attention to the league, which is bad news for the Geordies. That’s enough reason for all of us to lock. Chelsea. Up.

Writer’s Prediction: Chelsea cruises to a 2-0 win.

West Ham United vs. Swansea (Sun, Dec. 7, 8:30 AM ET)

There’s no getting around it anymore: this West Ham teams is good and I don’t see them going away anytime soon. After halting Newcastle’s winning streak, the Hammers scored another impressive win at West Brom to keep their place in the top five.

West Ham haven’t skipped a beat despite missing their first-choice strike partnership of Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho for the past three games, highlighting the Hammers’ strength in depth. West Ham have been especially good at home, going unbeaten in four straight games with just one goal conceded.

This is in stark contrast to their next opponents, Swansea, who haven’t won away from home in five games since beating Man United back in August. The Swans are slowly regressing back into ugly ducklings after a strong start, perhaps due to their lack of overall squad depth.

That lack of depth could once again hurt the Swans, who will be playing their third game in eight days and have started eight of 10 outfield players in the previous two games.

Writer’s Prediction: West Ham wins it, 2-1.

Stoke City vs. Arsenal – (Sat, Dec. 6, 10:00 AM ET)

OK, so Stoke didn’t quite pull off the big upset away against Liverpool or Man United, but they’ve played well enough that you just sense they’re due to make one of their close games against one of the big guns count. The Potters go back home on the weekend, and I have a feeling their luck is going to turn for the better against their old friends, Arsenal.

*Best League in the World! Upset Alert*

It’s a well-established fact at this point that Arsenal have historically had trouble playing tough and physical teams like Stoke, especially away from home. The Gunners are just 1-2-2 in five meetings against the Potters at the Britannica since 2010, and their lone win needed the added assist of a Stoke red card.

After coming so close in their last two games, Stoke will be hungry for that much-needed win at home. Meanwhile, Arsenal showed signs of fatigue in their 1-0 win against Southampton and who could blame them? They’ll be on their fourth game in 11 days, with another Champions League tie in midweek also in their minds and could be running on close to empty against Stoke. If there’s as good a time as any for Stoke to strike, it’s now.

Writer’s Prediction: Stoke squeaks by the Arsenal, 1-0.

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