Weekly EPL Predictions and Picks – Week 13

Woah nelly, it’s going to be one wild week of English Premier League action! Yes, week, not weekend, because all 20 teams will play 20 games (that’s two games each team) in a span of five action-packed days. Two of those games will pit a couple of top-six clubs squaring off in Southampton vs. Manchester City and West Ham vs. high-flying Newcastle.

Unfortunately, my powers can’t quite handle previewing all 20 games, but what I can offer is a breakdown of the biggest, most high-profile games and offering my unique takes on how they will pan out. As always in this picks column, I’ll include my fearless Lock of the Week, as well as a possible upset alert.

While my opinions are free to use as you choose, please remember that they are my own, and do not reflect any inside information or insights from the minds behind Top Bet’s actual bookmakers. And with that, off to the picks!
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Top EPL Picks for Week 13

Game of the Week – Southampton vs. Manchester City (Sun, Nov. 30, 8:30 AM ET)

Line: Manchester City +113 at Southampton +195, tie +230; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

[sc:Soccer240banner ]Without a doubt, the game of the Premier League weekend is the 2nd-vs.-3rd clash between Man City and Southampton, also known as the “Runner-up-to-Chelsea Bowl.” A Southampton win would send them five points clear of City, while the Citizens can leapfrog the Saints with victory.

Of course, that’ll be easier said than done for the defending champions. Heck, no one’s even been able to score on Southampton at home (just one goal conceded in six games), much less beat them there.

But if there’s one dude who’s capable of breaking past that near-impenetrable defense, it’s Sergio “Kun” Aguero. The Premier League’s premier marksman (12 goals) was a busy boy midweek, blasting a hat trick past German juggernaut Bayern in the Champions League to inspire a 3-2 City win.

Meanwhile, the Saints were a little lucky to get away with a point last week at Aston Villa after their much-ballyhooed defense gave up a goal to the most inept attack in the league. I mentioned last week that I was riding the Saints’ gravy train until it stopped, and failing to beat Villa is enough to make me seriously question if their Cinderella ride has indeed reached the end of the station.

Writer’s Prediction: City snatches a 1-0 win at St. Mary’s.

Lock of the Week – West Ham United vs. Newcastle United (Sat, Nov. 29, 10:00 AM ET)

Line: Newcastle +230 at West Ham -105, tie +238; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

Meet the new patron saint of small sample sizes, Newcastle United! After going winless in their first seven games and looking like certain relegation fodder, the Geordies are the form team in the Premier League. They’ve reeled off five wins in a row and have shot their way up to the dizzying heights of fifth, just a point ahead of their next opponents, West Ham.

But as good as Newcastle have looked over the past month or so, I’m not ready to overreact and commit the mistake almost everyone did when they weren’t winning. Newcastle obviously aren’t that bad, but I also don’t think they are quite this good.

In the same breath, West Ham are as bad as they seem lately. They’ve gone winless in their last three games since upsetting Man City at home. Manager Sam Allardyce will no doubt be working extra hard to get his team ready to bounce back from an away loss to Everton with a better performance at home.

But as I (and the league table) see it, neither team is really markedly better than the other. Admittedly, Newcastle is the form team, but West Ham’s home advantage should neutralize some of that. My inability to pick a side in this game was what fueled my confidence in locking this game up.

Writer’s Prediction: This is all just a long-winded way of saying 1-1 draw. Lock it in at a juicy +238.

Liverpool vs. Stoke City (Sat, Nov. 29, 10:00 PM ET)

Line: Stoke +425 at Liverpool -185, tie +270; total 2.5 – view all EPL lines

*Best League in the World! Upset Alert!*

If you’ve been paying attention to the train wreck that has been Liverpool’s season, the BLITW! Alert should come as no surprise. Liverpool are in a really dangerous place right now having lost three in a row.

Their already-fragile psyche was shot to bits with the crushing injury setback to striker Daniel Sturridge last week, and it’s showed. They squandered a 1-0 lead to go down 3-1 to Palace, and allowed a late equalizer in midweek at Ludogorets, putting their Champions League season in peril.

Now they face a very dangerous Stoke team that has played incredibly well against the top teams this season. Stoke has faced five of the 10 teams above them in the table and are 3-1-1, with one of those wins a shock 1-0 upset of champions Man City. Conversely, they’re 0-2-1 against the current bottom three, making them a bit of an enigma.

But seeing as Liverpool are in near-crisis mode at this point, I sense the stage is set for Stoke to serve up another spectacular scalp at Anfield.

Writer’s Prediction: Stoke stuns Liverpool, 2-1.

BONUS! Midweek Game of the Week – Arsenal vs. Southampton (Wed, Dec. 3, 2:45 PM ET)

Aside from the normal weekend fun, there’s a complete slate of bonus midweek action to enjoy. The marquee attraction among all of those: Arsenal vs. Southampton at the Emirates.

Southampton will be running the gauntlet of Premier League giants over the next few days. I tackled their Sunday showdown with Man City earlier. Three days later they visit Arsenal, before capping off their hellacious run on Monday against Man United. That’s three of the best teams in the league in a space of nine days. Bru-tal.

The quick turnaround could be a potentially big blow to Southampton’s defense, which doesn’t possess much depth outside of the regular starting four defenders. The Saints have been so successful because of their defensive solidity, one that could be compromised by the fatigue of chasing Aguero and Man City’s other talented players around ahead of their trip to the Emirates.

The Gunners aren’t exactly known for their depth either, and they suffered a couple more injuries to key midfielders Jack Wilshere and Mikel Arteta. But they are blessed with a host of attacking talent – Alexis, Santi Cazorla, Olivier Giroud, Lukas Podolski, Danny Welbeck, etc. – which they can call upon to seize on the Saints’ potentially fatigued backline.

Writer’s Prediction: Arsenal gun down the Saints, 2-0, at home.

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