Italy vs. Spain – 2016 Euro Cup – Round of 16 Predictions and Betting Preview – June 27, 2016

Without a doubt, Italy vs. Spain is the standout matchup in the Euro 2016 round of 16. A brief hiccup against Croatia aside, the irresistible force known as Spain has impressed thus far. But the immovable object that is Italy’s defense will be out to make this matchup much more competitive than their last meeting at the Euros.

Read on below for our preview of Monday’s marquee Euro matchup. Meanwhile, check out our preview of the other remaining round of 16 game, England vs. Iceland.

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Italy vs. Spain Preview

Where: Stade de France – Saint-Denis, France

When: Monday, June 27, 12:00 PM ET

Line: Italy +265 vs. Spain +104, tie +189; total: 1.5 – view all Euro 2016 lines

TV Broadcast: ESPN2

Betting on Italy (+258)

Expectations weren’t high for Italy entering the tournament because of a very weak team (on paper), but the Azzurri have shown that their big strength in defense remains as strong as ever. Their all-Juventus backline of Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, and Andrea Barzagli is as cohesive and experienced as any unit in the tournament.

The team’s big weakness on offense has also been apparent, though. Manager Antonio Conte got the best out of a very limited Italian attack as he delivered a tactical master class in his team’s 2-0 win over Belgium, but the same team struggled to break down a subpar Sweden team.

Because of his team’s lack of individual quality, Conte’s tactic – which is to defend deep and break on the counterattack – finds it hard to break down overly defensive teams like Sweden. However, it is more effective against teams that go forward and play a high defensive line like Spain.

However, it remains to be seen just how much Conte can squeeze out of his offense against a tough Spanish defense, especially if right wing-back Antonio Candreva can’t play due to a lingering hamstring injury. Candreva has been the team’s best attacking player and would be a huge loss to an already hamstrung Italian offense.

Italy has the defensive discipline and determination to make things very difficult for Spain, though. They will look to disrupt Spain’s free-flowing passing game for as long as possible, and potentially force extra time.

Betting on Spain (+101)

Spain’s 2-1 loss to Croatia in its final group game was quite a surprise – not the least because the Spain gave up a lead, conceded more than one goal at the Euros for the first time since 2000 and lost for the first time since Euro 2004 – but it’s not a reason to panic.

For one, the Spanish missed a penalty, which would’ve drastically altered the result. Meanwhile, their overall performance during the group stage suggests that they are still a force to be reckoned with.

Spain has showed it’s still capable of completely dominating possession and effectively taking the opposition’s offense away. More importantly, though, the two-time defending European champions have finally found the striker they’ve needed to turn all that superiority into goals.

Alvaro Morata has been a revelation in this tournament. He’s currently the co-leading goalscorer with three goals, and has provided the cutting edge in front of goal which the Spanish have been sorely lacking for the last few years. Morata will be well-acquainted with Italy’s vaunted backline; he was teammates with all four for two years in Juventus.

Spain will have the lion’s share of possession against an Italy team that will struggle to keep hold of the ball. The Italians’ lack of threatening goalscorers will also embolden the Spaniards to pile on the pressure even further, and should eventually make the Azzurri’s resolute defense crack as a result.

Spain has an excellent record against Italy, losing just once in their last 11 meetings (6-4-1). Their last meeting at the Euros came in the 2012 final, which the Spanish won 4-0.

Writer’s Prediction

Spain scores the decisive goal in a narrow 1-0 win (+104).

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