Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson Predictions, Picks, Odds and Betting Preview | UFC Fight Night – July 25 2020

Alexander Gustafsson is coming out of retirement and for the first fight in his comeback, he’ll be testing the waters of the heavyweight division against veteran and former heavyweight champ, Fabricio Werdum. Both fighters have lost their last two fights, so this showdown gives each a chance to get back on track and a step closer to a possible title shot in the future.

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Betting Preview for the Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson Heavyweight Bout at UFC Fight Night on July 25 2020

Where: Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

When: Saturday, July 25, 2020

Odds: Fabricio Werdum (+215) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-290)

TV Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass

Betting on Fabricio Werdum (+215)

MMA Record: 23-9-1

A former UFC heavyweight champion, Werdum will be looking to capture some of his old brilliance when he gets inside the right with Gustafsson. Werdum is on a two-fight losing skid, as he lost to Alexander Volkov via TKO in 2018 then to Aleksei Oleinik via split decision last May in the undercard of UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje. Werdum’s last win came in 2015 when he scored a unanimous decision victory over Marcin Tybura. At 42 years old, Werdum’s way past his prime but his experience will be a valuable asset for him against the much younger Gustafsson. Werdum became a UFC heavyweight king when he defeated Mark Hunt in 2014 for the interim belt then he submitted Cain Velasquez via guillotine choke in 2015. His reign atop the division ended in a TKO loss to Stipe Miocic. Since then, Werdum has gone 3-3. Werdum is a master Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner, as he has 11 wins via submissions while keeping his record clean when it comes to submission defeats.

Betting on Alexander Gustafsson (-290)

MMA Record: 18-6-0

Gustafsson has dropped his last two fights. First, he lost in a title rematch against Jon Jones in 2018 via KO, then was submitted by Anthony Smith last year. Those two losses had sent Gustafsson into retirement, but now that he’s back, it seems that he has regained the mental capacity to compete in this brutal sport. Although the heavyweight division is sort of alien territory for Gustafsson, as he’s never fought at this level before, he’s not unfamiliar with Werdum, who he had sparred with before. Gustafsson even went as far as to say that he’s won that sparring with Werdum a decade ago. Gustafsson is taller by an inch, has a two-inch reach advantage, and has an inch on his leg reach over Werdum. Gustafsson is averaging 4.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.44. He’s got a neat takedown defense, avoiding the mat 85 percent of the time. He has 11 wins via KO and a 3-2 submission record. His last win was against Glover Teixeira via TKO in 2017.

Writer’s Prediction

Gustafsson wins via KO.

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