UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich vs. FC Porto Predictions, Picks, and Preview – Quarterfinals Second Leg – April 21, 2015

The Pep Guardiola away leg curse strikes again. Pep and his Bayern side were blindsided by the rabid pressing of FC Porto, who pounded the German champions 3-1 in the first leg in Portugal. Bayern now have it all to do in the second leg, as their Champion League hopes hang precariously in the balance.

Can Porto finish the job in Germany and complete the momentous upset? Read on as we preview this critical quarterfinal second leg. Also, check out our preview of the day’s other second leg tie, Barcelona vs. PSG.
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Bayern Munich vs. FC Porto Preview

Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

When: Tuesday, April 21, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Bayern Munich -400 vs. FC Porto +800, tie +400; total 3.0 – view all UEFA Champions League lines

Second Leg Scenarios

[sc:Soccer240banner ]A 2-0 Bayern win is the most straightforward scoreline to see the Germans through to the semis. If Porto scores two or more goals, Bayern must then win by a three-goal margin because of Porto’s superior away goals. A 3-1 scoreline takes the tie to extra-time.

Betting on Bayern Munich

Pep Guardiola may be one of the most celebrated managers in the modern era, but he simply cannot seem to figure out how to win the away leg in the Champions League knockout stage. With their disastrous 3-1 loss at Porto in the first leg, Guardiola has now gone 4-5-8 (win-loss-draw) in 17 career away legs in the Champions League, and is 1-2-2 with Bayern.

Guardiola’s teams have been much better in the home legs (11-1-4), but the German champions still have a lot of work to do for the second leg against Porto. The most pressing concern will be learning how to cope with Porto’s pressure. Bayern were caught completely cold as their backline made a host of calamitous errors that directly led to Porto’s goals.

Guardiola was a chief proponent of that same pressing style from his time at Barcelona, though, and you better believe he’ll be drilling his team to death on the training ground to better handle the press in the second leg.

However, Bayern’s problems extend further up the pitch. They sorely missed the injection of pace and creativity of injured wingers Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery on the flanks. Meanwhile, World Cup hero Mario Gotze looked like he was sleepwalking through the game before being subbed off.

Nevertheless, there’s still a ton of goals and quality in this Bayern side. Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski are proven Champions League goalscorers and accounted for three goals in their 7-0 win over Shaktar Donetsk at home in the round of 16.

Thanks to Thiago’s away goal, overcoming a two-goal deficit at home is definitely within the realm of possibility. Bayern have won all four home Champions League games this season, and have scored 16 goals with none conceded.

Betting on FC Porto

Porto manager Julen Lopetegui drew up the perfect gameplan to beat Bayern in the first leg. He pressed high, and packed in his midfield. The pressing caused Bayern’s central defenders into errors and disrupted Bayern’s metronomic midfielder, Xabi Alonso. The result? A terrific 3-1 win which preserved Porto’s record as the only undefeated team left standing in the competition (six wins, three draws).

Man for man, Porto lack the experience Bayern possess in big game situations, but the tactical nous Lopetegui displayed in the first leg brings confidence that he’ll get his team as ready as possible in defending a two-goal lead away from home.

Porto will likely be under siege from the opening whistle in search of those two goals, so Lopetegui must have his team drilled to defend for long stretches. They do have the solid midfield trio of Casemiro, Oliver and Hector Herrera creating a strong defensive base, which performed very well in the first leg.

With Bayern obligated to go forward, there should be a lot of space open at the back for Porto to exploit. Porto can be very deadly on the counterattack, with the speedy Ricardo Quaresma, who scored two goals in the first leg, and Cristian Tello (if he’s fit to play) bombing on from the wings.

Writer’s Prediction

Bayern throw everything they have at Porto and win 2-1, but that’s enough to see Porto through to the semis. Create a betting account now and get everything you to wager on the biggest soccer games in the world.
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