Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Betting Preview – October 17, 2015

Just when things were looking so sunny down for the No. 8 Florida Gators, their starting quarterback suddenly gets suspended for the year. Freshman Will Grier will now miss the Gators’ big trip to the Bayou and their meeting with No. 6 LSU. Can Leonard Fournette and co. capitalize on this golden opportunity to take down one of the conference’s last undefeated teams?

Read on below as we break down this massive matchup between the leaders of the SEC East and West divisions. Also, don’t forget to check out more Week 7 conference action with our previews of Michigan State vs. Michigan, UCLA vs. Stanford and Alabama vs. Texas A&M.
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Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers Preview

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge

When: Saturday, October 17, 7:00 PM ET

Line: Florida Gators at LSU Tigers – view all NCAA Football lines

TV Broadcast: ESPN

Betting on the Florida Gators (6-0)

At 6-0 (5-1 ATS), Florida was one of the big surprises in college football through six weeks, with the solid play of freshman quarterback Will Grier a big reason for that success. However, Grier’s shock suspension is threatening to derail that great start. One year after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, the Florida QB will miss the rest of the 2015 season, starting with its toughest road game of the year at LSU.

[sc:NCAA240banner ]Sophomore Treon Harris, a dual-threat quarterback who was also suspended for one game due to a failed drug test earlier in the season, will take Grier’s place under center.

As a freshman last season, Harris split time with Jeff Driskel in a two-quarterback system, but eventually took over most of the snaps later in the year. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,019 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. He also added 332 rushing yards and three rushing scores.

The loss of Grier will be huge, especially since he’s the much more effective pocket passer than Harris. Grier put that arm in full display as he completed an incredible 83 percent of his passes for 271 yards and four scores in Florida’s 38-10 upset of Ole Miss.

The absence of that threat through the air against LSU will hurt a Florida running game that hasn’t exactly been effective this season. The Gators are averaging just 3.75 yards per carry this season, the second-lowest mark in the conference.

At the same time, though, Florida’s very impressive defense should be able to make it difficult for LSU’s one-dimensional, ground-based attack. The Gators front seven is surrendering just 3.05 yards per carry thus far this season, second only to Alabama in the SEC. Florida is also 11th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 14.3 points per game.

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Betting on the LSU Tigers (5-0)

For once, Leonard Fournette didn’t lead the nation in rushing yards. He didn’t even lead his own team, as freshman Derrius Guice had 161 rushing yards in LSU’s 45-24 “road” win over South Carolina. Fournette “only” had 158 yards and a touchdown, as the Tigers ran for nearly 400 yards with four rushing touchdowns.

Quarterback Brandon Harris threw for a career-high 228 yards and two touchdowns against South Carolina. But since he isn’t likely to challenge Florida’s fine corners too often, look for the Tigers to continue pounding the ball on the ground, which they are all too comfortable doing.

Led by Fournette, the Tigers are third in the nation with 357 rushing yards per game. No one has come close to stopping Fournette – the nation’s leading rusher with 204 yards per game – this season, although this Florida front seven will be his most formidable test yet.

However, it’s probably wise not to bet against the huge -210 Heisman favorite from getting his yards. Fournette had his second-highest output last year as a freshman against Florida, as he rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns in LSU’s 30-27 win at Gainesville.

Meanwhile, LSU’s defense should have a much easier time containing Florida’s offense now that Grier’s ability to make big plays in the passing game is out of the picture. The Tigers’ run defense is giving up just under 100 yards per game this year and just 291 yards of offense overall (third in the SEC).

LSU is 4-1 (SU and ATS) in its last five games against Florida.

Writer’s Prediction

LSU has too much on the ground and on defense and hands Florida its first loss of the year. LSU takes it in a relatively low-scoring affair, 21-14.
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