American League Wild Card Game Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Prediction, Picks and Preview – October 6, 2015

Few thought that the young Houston Astros would make the postseason as early as 2015. But now that the Astros have made it past the regular season, they’ll have to prove next that they’re no one-trick postseason ponies. That mission begins tonight when they travel to the Bronx for a one-game showdown with the New York Yankees. Like the Astros, the Yankees lost grip of the top spot of their division, thus the need to play a wild card game.

Will Houston send the Yankees crashing out of the postseason? Or will the Yankees work their magic and show the Astros who’s the boss?  The winner of this game gets the Kansas City Royals in the American League Division Series.
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Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Preview

Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx

When: Wednesday, October 6, 2015, 8:00 PM ET

Line:  Houston Astros (-110) vs. New York Yankees (EVEN); total: 7.0 – view all MLB lines

Broadcast: ESPN

Betting on the Houston Astros

[sc:MLB240banner ]On the mound for the Astros late tonight is the team’s undisputed ace in Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA). It’s a good thing that Keuchel is heading into this big game on the heels of a solid performance. In a 21-5 win over the Diamondbacks on October 2, Keuchel tossed for six innings and allowed just two runs on six hits. That victory capped Keuchel’s solid three-start windup before the postseason, wherein he went 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA.

Where the Astros might be a bit iffy concerning Keuchel, though, is in the lefty’s s unsteadiness when pitching on the road. While Keuchel‘s 15-0 record and 1.46 ERA in 18 home starts back in the regular season were mind-blowing, his 5-8 slate and 3.77 ERA in 15 road starts were rather mediocre.

That said, Keuchel has conquered the Yankees twice this year, including one in the Bronx on August 25. In that game, Keuchel held the Yankees scoreless for seven innings, allowing just three hits, while striking out nine in a 15-1 win. Furthermore, Keuchel didn’t allow the Yankees to score in the 16 innings (two starts) he’s faced them back in the regular season.

Keuchel has the second highest groundball rate (61.7 percent) in the majors, which could continue to pose trouble for the hard-hitting Yankees. Largely because of his ability to induce a ton of grounders, Keuchel was able to finish the regular season with the tenth-lowest home run given up per nine innings (0.66) pitched among qualified starters.

As for the offense, the Astros will count on the top-of-the-order hitting of Jose Altuve and George Springer. Altuve has hit 36-for-112 (.321) over his last 26 games. Springer, meanwhile, hit .317 on 33-for-104 batting over his last 25.

Altuve, Chris Carter, and Carlos Correa each has hit a homer off Yankees starter, Masahiro Tanaka.

Houston is 3-1 in its last four road games.

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Betting on the New York Yankees

Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51 ERA) has suffered a few ailments this year but he’s the best option for the Yankees, who have been weighed down by a dull pitching staff throughout the season.

Tanaka, who will face the Astros for just the second time this year, hasn’t looked great of late. He gave up six earned runs (three homers) on 10 hits in the last 11 innings he’s pitched. That includes a bad outing against Boston on September 30, when he allowed four earned runs on five hits within five innings of a 9-5 loss.

In his only start against Houston thus far this season, Masahiro allowed six earned runs on seven hits (three homers) in five innings, albeit in a 9-6 New York win on June 27. Tanaka has been a beneficiary of a terrific Yankees’ offense that supplies him with an ample 5.84 RS/9.

There’s little doubt, however, on the Yankees’ bullpen whenever Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller goes to work. Betances finished the regular season with a 1.50 ERA and 2.48 FIP, while Miller had 1.90 ERA and 2.16 FIP. If Tanaka manages to keep Houston’s bats silent and leaves the game past the sixth innings with the Yankees ahead, New York would be in the good hands of those two bullpen studs.

But of course, the Yankees will have to solve Keuchel. Among the Bronx Bombers’ best weapons against the lefty are Chris Young and Carlos Beltran. Young is 6-for-20 (.300) with two doubles and a triple in his career against Keuchel. Beltran, on the other hand, is 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer in the same matchup.  Chase Headley, meanwhile, has the best batting average in the Yankees’ lineup against lefties. Headley has slashes of .283/.335/.408 against southpaws this year.

The Yankees are 6-4 in Tanaka’s last 10 starts at Yankee Stadium, where the Japanese import is 7-4 with a 3.71 in 14 starts.

Writer’s Prediction

New York (EVEN) wins, 4-3.

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