Patriots vs Texans Against the Spread: What You Need to Know – January 9, 2017

The Need to Know Info of the Houston-New England AFC Divisional Battle

This game is extremely unfortunate for Brock Osweiler. He’s had a horrible year, he’s being called “overrated” left, right and center and now he has to face arguably the best QB in NFL history. Osweiler pieced together a winning combination last week at home over the Oakland Raiders in Wild Card weekend, but this challenge is a completely different animal. Tom Brady and the Patriots are the epitome of excellence in the league. Even without one of the best tight ends in history – Rob Gronkowski – their offense continues to get it done. So let’s break down every single intangible you need to know heading into this one. The Texans offense, their defense and the Patriots dominance need to come under the microscope. Reason being, if there is a chance the Texans can pull this one out…you could win A LOT of money! Read on…

Line: Houston Texans (+16) at New England Patriots (-16); total: 45.0 – view all NFL lines

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How Much Could I Make if the Houston Texans Win?

Across the net, moneylines were turned off early in the week for this game. As an unwritten rule, bookmakers take down the cash numbers early on if a game is over a 14-point spread. This one definitely falls into that category. The line could go down, but if anything, it’ll likely rise before game time. With that said, the money will be back up on game day. The first chatter about the moneyline had the Patriots coming out at -2000! A crazy amount which means, if Houston could pull it off, you could win some major dough!

Houston Texans (+1000) x $100 Bet = $1000 (if they win)

Not a bad payday if you believe in the Brock Stock. Even if that stock looks like Enron, there’s still a chance the team may not collapse right before our eyes this weekend. The big difference makers though are on the defense.

How can the Houston Texans Win This Game?

The offense has their woes but their league’s number one ranked defense could do some major damage. Their back end is so good that there’s a chance they could even win them this game. Sadly, for Houston fans, it’s pretty much their only chance as well.

Last weekend the Texan D churned up three picks and three sacks. They won’t be as easy to come by this weekend, but the opportunity is there.

Houston defended the deep ball well against Connor Cook and the Raiders, but Brady is a different cat. TB finished the season with an 8.23 yards per attempt average, good enough for second in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans allowed 201.6 passing yards per game, which was also good enough for second in the league and also brought in 11 picks. If they can get to Brady early and often and make him rush his attempts, there’s a chance they could pull this one off.

Their offense won’t do them any favors, so their defense – much like last week – will need to put them in a prime position to win. The world has lost faith in Brock Osweiler and that heavily includes each and ever bookmaker.

Why Will the Patriots Win?

It’s pretty obvious, they’re just the all around better team. Their defense wasn’t as good as Houston’s in many categories across the board but their O is far superior. Tom Brady has once again formed a great synergy with his receivers, and with the added use of Martellus Bennet, they limited their dependance on Rob Gronkowski. With Gronk out of the lineup, the Patriots have persevered. The team was once built around its dominant tight end but has since delivered a more widespread offense.

On a side note – prior to this game, in week three of the NFL season, the Patriots beat the Houston Texans 27-0. Brock Osweiler was facing rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. Just saying.

Watch for 39-year old Tom Brady to likely pick up his (we have to say likely) fourth double-digit playoff point spread win of his career since his emergence in 2000.

Writer’s Prediction: Brady goes off. Patriots win 45-10.

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