Italy vs. Sweden – 2016 Euro Cup – Group E Predictions and Betting Preview – June 17, 2016

Italy’s quest for a second European crown is off to a rousing start after recording an impressive 2-0 win against Belgium in their opening match on Monday. The Azzurri will look to grab back-to-back wins and book their passage to the knockout round when they take on Sweden in a critical showdown at Stadium Municipal this coming Friday.

Who will emerge victorious in this pivotal clash? Read on below for an in-depth breakdown of this Group E match and while you’re at it, you can check out our preview of Spain vs. Turkey.

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Italy vs. Sweden Preview

Where: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

When: Friday, June 17, 9:00 AM ET

Line: Italy -138 vs. Sweden +360, tie +220; total: 2.0 – view all Euro 2016 lines

TV Broadcast: ESPN

Betting on Italy (-138)

Italy’s Euro campaign is off to an excellent start after beating much-fancied Belgium, 2-0, in Lyon on Monday. Emanuele Giaccherini and Graziano Pelle scored the winning goals for the Azzurri who are unbeaten in their four matches with Belgium at major tournaments. With the victory, Italy grabbed sole possession of first place in Group E with three points to their name.

They will look to tighten their grip on the top spot when they face Sweden this coming Friday. For Italy to record their second consecutive victory in Group E, it’s paramount that they continue their outstanding play on the defensive end. With their shutout win against Belgium, Italy have now kept three clean sheets in a row for the first time since June 2013. In fact, they have kept more clean sheets at the Euros than any other team (17) in competition.

Much of the credit for this defensive record should go to captain Gianluigi Buffon. The veteran goalkeeper became the oldest player to represent Italy at the Euros (38 years, 136 days) and the sixth-oldest overall to appear at the tournament. The match against Belgium was his 14th game at the European Championship with the Azzurri, also a record for a player.

Italy will fancy their chances of beating Sweden as they have fared extremely well against them of late. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last five matches with Sweden. Italy defeated Sweden, 1-0, in their most recent meeting in a friendly on November 18, 2009.

The Italians are pegged at -190 to score first in this match.

Betting on Sweden (+360)

Sweden grabbed a valuable point on Monday as they held Republic of Ireland to a 1-1 draw in their Group E opener. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan opened the scoring in the 47th minute to give the Irish the early advantage but the Swedes refused to budge, forcing Ciaran Clark to score an agonizing own goal in the 71st minute.

Sweden’s equalizer came from one of the few moments of quality from captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic. He collected a neat backheel from John Guidetti and raced to the byline before drilling in a low cross that resulted in the own goal. Sweden will need to get more production from Ibrahimovic, however, if they are to advance further in this competition. He was basically a non-factor for a Sweden side that had no shots on target against Republic of Ireland, the first time they have failed to do so in a European Championship match. That was quite a surprise considering Ibrahimovic had scored 11 of his team’s 19 goals in the Euro qualifiers.

To address that concern against Italy. they will need to take control of the midfield and create enough attacking chances in the final third. Even though Sweden had 57 percent of the possession in the group opener, they could not find a way to trouble the Irish defense. They were outshot by the Irish in attempts (9-7) and in the shots on target department (4-0). It’s paramount that they create more scoring opportunities for Ibrahimovic in order for them to defeat Italy. He has been a vital cog for Sweden, scoring a record 62 goals in 114 appearances for the national team.

The Swedes have only won three of their past 15 games at the European Championship. They are pegged at +230 to score first in this match.

Writer’s Prediction

Italy and Sweden cancel each other out in an enthralling 1-1 draw (+220).

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