Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale: Ellenberger vs. Thompson Predictions and Preview

The UFC International Fight Week comes to a close with The Ultimate Fighter Season 21 Finale, headlined by Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Both fighters possess one-punch knockout power, so don’t miss a beat in this explosive welterweight affair. There are lots of other exciting fights in the finale, so read on as we take a look at each fight on the card.

Don’t miss out on the big UFC week to come. Check out our complete previews for UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor and UFC Fight Night 71: Mir vs. Duffee.
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The Ultimate Fighter Season 21 Finale: Ellenberger vs. Thompson Preview

Welterweight: Jake Ellenberger vs. Stephen Thompson

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (10-1) is knocking on the door to atop the UFC Welterweight Division. A kickboxer by trade, Thompson has amassed a 5-1 record in the UFC, winning three fights by knockout or technical knockout. He most recently outpointed veteran Patrick Cote in a lopsided fight back in September of 2014.

[sc:UFC240banner ]Thompson relies on his otherworldly striking to get him through his fights. Regularly darting in-and-out of range using a karate stance, Thompson has outstruck all six of his opponents in the UFC a combined 279-189 with five knockdowns.

And Wonderboy isn’t just a striker anymore. He’s added a strong takedown defense and an efficient offense by training with UFC Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman. Thompson has avoided 77 percent of takedowns against him.

But Thompson regularly fights with his hands way low to push off takedown attempts. That should leave plenty of openings for Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (30-9) to land one of his bombs on Wonderboy’s chin. Ellenberger is a strong wrestler with a penchant for knocking out his opponents. The Juggernaut has the second-most knockdowns in the UFC Welterweight Division with eight.

But Ellenberger has a bad habit of shelling up when his opponents bring in the pressure. He failed to open up in a TKO loss to welterweight champ Robbie Lawler and a decision loss to Rory MacDonald. Ellenberger also fought rather horrendously in his last outing, a second-round submission win over Josh Koscheck. He remained flat-footed and over cautious against a fighter he should have steamrolled in the first.

Writer’s prediction: Thompson forces Ellenberger into a shell with a few well-placed counters. Wonderboy forces the TKO stoppage in the third round with a head kick and follow-up punches.

Welterweight: Hayder Hassan vs. Kamaru Usman

American Top Team put their trust in Hayder Hassan (5-1) in the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter. Hassan fought three times over the course of the show, taking decision wins over Felipe Portela and Vicente Luque as well as a 48-second TKO victory over Andrews Nakahara. Hassan excels in keeping his opponents at bay with a crisp jab and stringing along straight punch combinations.

But Hassan routinely leaves himself open to takedowns; he was taken down four times in his fight against Luque. The American Top Team product’s weak takedown defense bodes well for the wrestler in Kamaru Usman (6-1). The Blackzillians fighter notched decision wins over Michael Graves and Steve Carl in the show. But he doesn’t just control you on the mat; Usman also has plenty of knockout power. Usman has finished all of his professional wins by technical knockout.

Writer’s prediction: Usman wrestles Hassan to a unanimous decision.

Welterweight: Michael Graves vs. Vicente Luque

Michael Graves (4-0) is a promising prospect fighting out of the American Top Team camp. A wrestler before transitioning to MMA, Graves is the complete fighter that you could only wish for. He has power in his strikes (he has three wins by TKO) and competent grappling.

Graves will face one of the Blackzillians’ better fighters in Vicente Luque (7-4). The Brazilian has finished three of his seven professional wins by knockout and another three by submission. He also has an underrated wrestling ability to put opponents on the mat.

Writer’s prediction: Luque submits Graves in the first round.

Welterweight: Jorge Masvidal vs. Cezar Ferreira

After a controversial split-decision loss to up-and-comer Al Iaquinta at lightweight, veteran Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (28-9) decided to move up a weight class to save him from brutal weight cuts. Gamebred is one of the more well-rounded fighters on the roster capable of hurting his opponents with his strikes as well as finishing fights with sneaky submisisons. He faces a tough opponent in Cezar “Mutante” Ferreira (8-4), a former middlweight.

Ferreira is your typical glass cannon. He can hurt and finish you early in fights with brutal knockout power and a competent submission game. But he can also get knocked out by just one opportune strike to the chin. Being a heftier fighter coming from the middleweight division, Ferreira isn’t doing his chin a favor as dehydration could leave him vulnerable to knockouts.

Writer’s prediction: Masvidal knocks Ferreira unconscious in the second round.

Women’s Strawweight: Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Magana

Former Invicta Atomweight Champion Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (12-4) makes her highly-anticipated UFC debut against journeywoman Angela “Your Majesty” Magana (11-7).

Waterson brings a diverse striking arsenal into the UFC Octagon. Utilizing blinding kicks and punches, Waterson can fluster her opponents throughout the fight with her strikes. The Karate Hottie isn’t all about striking though, as she also has a great submission game — with seven of her 12 wins coming by tapout — to round off her arsenal.

Magana isn’t the best of fighters, but she’s tough and scrappy. She has a win over highly-rated Jessica Aguilar (who was once considered one of the best women’s strawweight fighters in the world back in 2009). But she struggles against highly-mobile opponents such as Waterson. Magana dropped a unanimous decision to a similar opponent in Tecia Torres in her UFC debut back in December.

Writer’s prediction: Waterson puts on a striking clinic in a dominant unanimous decision win.

Bantamweight: Russell Doane vs. Jerrod Sanders

Russell Doane’s (14-4) rise to the top of the UFC Bantamweight Division was halted with a unanimous decision loss against Iuri Alcantara in September 2014. He’ll have a chance to rebound against Jerrod Sanders (14-3), who is coming off two stoppage losses.

Doane is a well-rounded mixed martial artist having finished five fights by knockout or technical knockout and six fights by submission. He submitted a former Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt champion in Leandro Issa in his Octagon debut.

Writer’s prediction: Doane submits Sanders with a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Preliminary Quick Picks

Willie Gates def. Darrell Montague by unanimous decision.

Mike de la Torre def. Maximo Blanco by unanimous decision.

Josh Samman def. Caio Magalhaes by technical knockout in the second round.

Dan Miller def. Trevor Smith by submission in the first round.

Dominic Waters def. George Sullivan by unanimous decision.

Create a betting account now and get your cards ready for some high-octane MMA action.
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