UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne Predictions and Preview

The UFC returns to O2 Arena in Berlin for UFC Fight Night 69 featuring an intriguing championship bout between strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Penne. It’s a classic striker vs. grappler matchup that should bring about plenty of fireworks and wild scrambles.

Don’t miss out on this thrilling fight card. Read on as we break down the championship fight as well as the other three main card bouts featuring Japanese legend Tatsuya Kawajiri and Germany’s own Dennis Siver.

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UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne Predictions and Preview

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Jessica Penne

Line: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-700) vs. Jessica Penne (+450) – view all UFC lines

The UFC may have found their golden girl for the newly minted women’s strawweight division. Joanna “The Polish Jedi” Jedrzejczyk (9-0) blazed a trail to the championship with otherworldly striking skills and takedown defense that could last for days.

[sc:UFC240banner ]Jedrzejczyk’s kicks and punches are absolutely devastating coming from a rich background in pro kickboxing and Muay Thai. She has held titles in the J-Girls Kickboxing Federation (2009), World Kickboxing Federation (2010), World Kickboxing Network (2010) and World Budokai Federation (2013). She’s also a five-time International Federation of Muay Thai Association (IFMA) gold medallist, a four-time IFMA European champion and World Muay Thai Council champion.

Challengers thinking they’d beat the Polish Jedi on the ground are in tough luck. Jedrzejczyk has defended 80 percent of takedowns against her in her UFC career (three fights). When she does give up a takedown, she pops right back up to her feet. But Jessica Penne (12-2) may just be the best grappler in the division being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Seven of Penne’s 12 career wins have come by submission.

Penne excels in clinch takedowns, which is what troubled Jedrzejczyk in the past. The Polish Jedi was taken down seven times by the talented BJJ black belt Claudia Gadelha in December 2014, but still managed to escape with a decision.

Penne may be able to showcase a renewed striking game, though. She’s training in the renowned Alliance MMA gym, which houses the likes of former bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz, lightweight contender Myles Jury and the like. Penne is landing just under two significant strikes per minute, which may not amount much against a striker of Jedrzejzcyk’s caliber.

Writer’s prediction: Jedrzejczyk (-700) will be all over Penne from bell to bell. The Polish Jedi wins by third round TKO.

Featherweight: Dennis Siver vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Line: Dennis Siver (-180) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+140) – view all UFC lines

Dennis Siver (22-10, 1NC) makes his highly-anticipated return home to Germany. He may be getting a favorable stylistic matchup when he faces a slick grappler in Japanese legend Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri (33-8-2). Siver has only lost to elite strikers in Donald Cerrone, Cub Swanson and Connor McGregor in the past four years. He’s been beastly against grapplers, fending off the likes of Charles Rosa, Manny Gamburyan and George Sotiropoloulos in that time, outlanding them 161-74 in significant strikes.

Kawajiri seems to be in the twilight of his career. He struggled against a young up-and-comer in Sean Soriano in his UFC debut. Kawajiri went 3 for 12 in takedown attempts in that match and was noticeably gassing out early into the fight, but he held on to win by rear naked choke in the second round. Crusher was also unimpressive against journeyman fighter Clay Guida in his second UFC bout; he went 1 for 5 on takedown attempts in a unanimous decision loss.

Writer’s prediction: Siver (-190) by unanimous decision.

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Welterweight: Peter Sobotta vs. Steven Kennedy

Line: Peter Sobotta (-250) vs. Steven Kennedy (+190) – view all UFC lines

Peter Sobotta (14-4) is a finisher with only one of his 14 career wins coming by decision. He does his best work on the ground, owning nine submission victories in his career. The rear-naked choke is his specialty, choking out five straight opponents before taking a unanimous decision win in his UFC debut in May 2014.

But Steve Kennedy (22-6) may welcome going to the ground against Sobotta. Kennedy is also an excellent submission grappler with nine career wins by submission, but has yet to fight a competent opponent capable of stuffing his takedowns.

Writer’s prediction: Sobotta (-250) repeatedly grounds Kennedy to cruise to a decision.

Lightweight: Nick Hein vs. Lukasz Sajewski

Line: Nick Hein (-190) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (+150) – view all UFC lines

Opening the main card is a lightweight scrap between Nick “Sergeant” Hein (11-2) and Lukasz “Wookie” Sajewski (13-0). Hein is an experienced grappler with a black belt in Judo. He isn’t much of a finisher, winning just six of his 11 wins by decision. But he does know when to lock on a submission with four submission victories under his name.

Fans should expect to see the best of Sergeant Hein in this fight. He retired from active police work to train full-time. He’s also rounded up his skillset by training his Muay Thai in its birthplace of Thailand. Hein has a tough opponent in young Polish prospect, Sajewski. Wookie is a tough fighter with excellent submission skills, but should struggle against Hein’s clinch control and Judo takedowns.

Writer’s prediction: Hein (-190) grinds out a unanimous decision victory.
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