Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions, Odds, Picks and NFL Week 13 Betting Preview – December 4, 2016

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview

Where: Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia

When: Sunday, December 4, 1:00 PM ET

Line: Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Atlanta Falcons (-4); total 49.0 – view all NFL lines

TV Broadcast: CBS

Writer’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-4)

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Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs (+4)

Somehow, someway, the Chiefs continue to find a way to win. Their latest was a thrilling 30-27 overtime triumph over the Denver Broncos. Kansas City improves to 8-3 (5-6 against the spread) on the season, and an incredible 18-3 in its last 21 regular season games.

Tyreek Hill was the hero for KC in Denver. The rookie receiver became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to score a rushing, receiving, and return touchdown in the same game.

The Chiefs needed every single one of those scores, as their offense continues to sputter along. The Kansas City offense has now scored just five touchdowns from scrimmage in its last four games. Their usually reliable running game has failed to top 100 yards in all four of those games.

But the Chiefs’ offensive struggles hardly seem to matter as long as they keep performing on the defensive side of the ball. Justin Houston’s return has re-energized the Chiefs pass rush. The elite edge rusher had his first three sacks of the season against the Broncos.

While the Kansas City pass defense did give up a couple of huge plays to the Broncos, it has been very good for the most part this season. The Chiefs entered Week 13 No. 8 per DVOA in pass defense. The Chiefs could see a lot of dropbacks against the pass-heavy Falcons, which would play right into KC’s hands.

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games.

Betting on the Atlanta Falcons (-4)

The Falcons have learned their lesson. One week after getting dominated in the trenches by the Eagles, Atlanta came back and delivered a domination of its own in the form of a 38-19 home win over the Arizona Cardinals. The Falcons are now 7-4 (7-4 against the spread), a full game ahead of Tampa Bay atop the NFC South.

Atlanta was able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Arizona. The Falcons’ offensive line protected Matt Ryan well and was also able to get the running game going against a tough Cardinals front. On the other side, their front seven kept David Johnson (13 carries, 58 years) in check on the ground.

That improved line play is a big reason why the Falcons can hand the Chiefs a road loss. Atlanta’s offense, which got running back Tevin Coleman back from injury, can be a bit more balanced against a Kansas City team which has struggled defending the run this season (just 21st per DVOA). Meanwhile, stopping the run will go a long way towards containing the very limited Chiefs offense.

Stopping the Falcons’ league-leading offense (32.5 points per game), on the other hand, will take some doing. That’s especially true in the Georgia Dome, where they’re averaging 34.6 points. They just have so many weapons with Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and now Taylor Gabriel. The third-year wideout caught two more touchdowns against the Cardinals, giving him five total touchdowns (four receiving, one rushing) over the past month.

Writer’s Prediction

The Falcons have too much firepower for the Chiefs. Atlanta (-4) covers in a 27-21 home win.

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