Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Preview – November 19, 2016

Kansas State vs. Baylor Football Betting Preview

Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

When: Saturday, November 19, 12:00 PM ET

Line: Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5) at Baylor Bears (+2.5) – view all NCAA Football odds and lines

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Betting on the Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5)

Fresh off their bye, the Kansas State Wildcats have had enough time to digest their 43-37 loss to No. 13 Oklahoma State from a couple of weeks back and prepare for the next bout. With a 5-4 record as we speak, the Wildcats are still in the mix for a seventh-straight bowl game with a strong ground attack and stout defense behind them.

Quarterback Jesse Ertz is not your typical big-armed play-caller, but his dazzling footwork caters to the strengths of this Kansas State team. Ertz ran the ball 30 times for 153 yards and three rushing scores against Oklahoma State, and he actually has a team-high 630 rushing yards and nine TDs for the season at that.

While having a run-first QB is not ideal, at least the Wildcats make up for their unorthodox offense with some great defense. At just 24 points allowed per game, Kansas State has the best scoring defense in the Big 12, which is led by stud defensive end Jordan Willis (nine sacks). However, the team’s D has sort of regressed lately, giving up five touchdowns apiece to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State within the last month of play.

Luckily for the Wildcats, they’re now set to take on a reeling Baylor squad on Saturday. Another trip to Waco normally spells doom for them, especially with a record of 1-4 on the road this season (SU/ATS) and with their only victory away from home coming from a hard-earned battle against a bad Iowa State team. However, there’s no better time than now for the Wildcats to exploit their edge over the hobbling Bears, which leads us to…

Betting on the Baylor Bears (+2.5)

The 45-24 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners this past Saturday has officially put the Baylor Bears’ season on life support. Not only were they crushed by a ranked opponent, they even lost their starting quarterback in the process.

Seth Russell is no doubt the team’s MVP, and it’s sad that a fractured ankle that he suffered from Saturday’s game has put an end to his campaign. Baylor now has to rely on the arm of freshman Zach Smith moving forward, and his first career start will be against a tough Kansas State D. Although Smith, who went a decent 6-for-15 for 144 passing yards and a touchdown in place of Russell versus the Sooners, the sample size of his work is too small to tell whether or not he’ll be capable of taking command of the entire offense.

Working in favor of Smith is that he has a talented wideout in K.D. Cannon (seven catches for 122 receiving yards and two TDs in Week 11) to throw his passes to. The return of running back Shock Linwood from a one-game suspension is also a welcome addition to Smith’s available weaponry.

But even though the Bears have won four-straight meetings against the Wildcats, they’re actually just 2-2 against the spread in those games, and their defense has been playing badly of late even before Russell went down. Through their first six games of the season – all winning efforts – the Bears gave up just 17.1 points per contest. Since then, they’ve lost three straight games by allowing no less than 35 points in each of those contests.

Kansas State is no Big 12 powerhouse, but two of Baylor’s losses this year were against the conference’s middling programs in TCU and Texas. Smith must have a big night this coming Saturday, but the sudden snowballing downfall of the team is too hard to ignore, and that’s got to be messing up with the backup QB’s psyche as well.

Writer’s Prediction

The Wildcats (-2.5) hand the Bears their fourth-straight defeat, 31-24.

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