2016 Kentucky Derby Horse and Jockey Analysis and Breakdown

Get yourself ready for a big day in horse racing when the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby occurs on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The best thoroughbred horses in the world begin their respective journeys to capture the coveted Triple Crown after American Pharoah did so last year.

Is there a colt capable of achieving such a feat in this race? Read on as we take a look at the top contenders heading into this year’s Run for the Roses. For more on the Kentucky Derby, check out our experts’ predictions and sleeper picks.

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Kentucky Derby Horse and Jockey Analysis

No. 1 – Gun Runner (Florent Geroux)

+550 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Since the creation of the Derby point system in 2013, every Derby winner has had 150 or more points. Gun Runner is the only colt heading into the race that fits that bill with 151 points. He’s coming in hot after winning the Louisiana Derby and has won four of his last five races.

Gun Runner was sired by Candy Ride, a horse that has produced previous Derby starters and colts who have won at the classic distances. He’s trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, and likes to stalk leaders before sprinting off to put a stamp on a race.

Gun Runner will be jockeyed by Florent Geroux. The jockey doesn’t exactly produce plenty of confidence considering he’s won just one of his last seven races (Elkhorn Stakes).

No. 2 – Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez)

+275 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Nyquist is the 2015 Eclipse Two-Year Old Male Horse of the Year. He’s undefeated in seven starts with four Grade 1 stakes wins. He was the first of the 2016 Kentucky Derby crop to produce a 100-plus Beyer Speed Figure, winning at San Vicente in January.

Jockey Mario Gutierrez already knows how to guide Nyquist to victory. He did so in early April, leading Nyquist to win the Florida Derby. He hasn’t won since then, but he should have an excellent job to add another win at the Kentucky Derby with a horse as powerful as Nyquist.

No. 3 – Exaggerator (Kent J. Desormeaux)

+450 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Exaggerator’s recent performances and his jockey, Kent Desormeaux make him an intriguing pick for the upcoming Run for the Roses. Desormeaux has won three of his last five races, one with Exaggerator at the Santa Anita Derby. He finished second in one of his past five races, riding Wild Dude at Los Angeles.

Exaggerator has the speed to win the Derby; his 103 Beyer Speed earned in Santa Anita is the top figure for this year’s Run for the Roses crop. He also has good pedigree being sired by Curlin, who came in third at the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator is the type of horse who excels in races as the distance gets longer.

No. 4 – Outwork (John R. Velasquez)

+1000 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Outwork is another horse to look out for at the Kentucky Derby. He has never finished below second in four career starts, but he’s never raced farther than six furlongs. He’s pretty fast with a 95.5 average Beyer Speed Figure in his last two races.

What make Outwork an interesting pick are his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and jockey, John Velazquez. Pletcher was the 2010 Kentucky Derby winning trainer, while Velasquez was the winning jockey in 2011. He has a team brimming with success behind him. Velazquez won his last two races with a Pletcher-trained colt.

No. 5 – Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez)

+1,500 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Brody’s Cause has won the Blue Grass and Breeders’ Futurity Stakes. He’s an excellent closer with speed that can see him win the Kentucky Derby should he start fast. Brody’s Cause has won three of his six career starts and could add more due to trainer Dale Romans’ success at Churchill Downs.

Romans grew up around horse racing at Churchill Downs and is best known for training the 2011 Preakness, Shackleford. Horses trained by Romans have won three of their last six races, including Brody’s Cause jockeyed by Luis Saez at the Blue Grass Stakes.

Saez has been hot recently, winning three of his last five races. He seems to mesh well with Brody’s Cause’s style. Brody’s Cause will be one of the horses to look out for at the Kentucky Derby.

No. 6 – Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr.)

+1,200 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Creator, like Exaggerator, is another thoroughbred coming in hot heading into Saturday’s Run for the Roses. He’s jockeyed by Ricardo Santana Jr., winner of five of his last five races. Santana and Creator had a terrific Arkansas Derby on April 16. Creator was left in the gate at the start of the race, but Santana was able to calm him down to eventually guide him to a victory.

Creator has that special instinct to fight for running space, whereas other horses concede to their opposition. He has a willingness to take control of the paths he wants to run on. He’s a closer, meaning that he’ll make his move near the end of the race for a potential victory. However, doing so after trailing in traffic could be dangerous as he may not be able to find the running ground in a field of 20 horses.

No. 7 – Lani (Yutaka Take)

+2,500 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Lani has won three of his last four races, most recently winning the UAE Derby in March 26. While he is a strong and fast colt with the ability to leave opposition biting his dust, he does lack experience running stateside. It’s also worth noting that Lani will be jockeyed by Yutaka Take, who had flown back and forth from Japan just last week.

Take may struggle from all the traveling, but he’s a world-beater at his best. He won his seventh spring Tenno-sho title in Japan on Sunday. Coming off his big win could give some momentum ahead of the Run for the Roses.

No. 8 – Mor Spirit (Gary L. Stevens)

+650 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Mor Spirit has been pretty good recently, winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes then finishing second at the Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. While he’s not one of the favorites to win the race, he has the trainer to make him a winner. Bob Baffert has been responsible for four Derby winners in his career, most recently training American Pharoah not only to win the Run for the Roses, but the Triple Crown as well.

Gary Stevens is projected to be Mor Spirit’s jockey at the Kentucky Derby. He hasn’t won a race since riding Kobe’s Back on March 12 at San Carlos, but he’s an experienced Derby winner. He won the 1988, 1995 and 1998 Kentucky Derbies. Stevens has decades of experience, which could come a long way for a horse like Mor Spirit.

No. 9 – Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado)

+400 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Mohaymen looked good at the Holy Bull Stakes in January. He’s regressed since then. He hasn’t beaten a horse that will make the Derby field on Saturday. But Mohaymen could be up for a good outing if the conditions are right at Churchill Downs. A wet track prevented him from performing at his best at the Florida Derby. He still has good speed, with a 95 Beyer figure at the Holy Bull Stakes.

Junior Alvarado is the tentative jockey for Mohaymen. He hasn’t won since March 26, but has come close recently. He finished third twice and second once in his last five races. A well-rested Mohaymen (he last ran a race in April 2) could very well contend near the front of the race at Churchill Downs.

No. 10 – Danzing Candy (Mike E. Smith)

+1,800 oddset – See all Kentucky Derby betting lines here.

Danzing Candy had a stellar run, winning three straight races. He was the surprise winner at the San Felipe Stakes, beating out the likes of Exaggerator and Mor Spirit, but settled for a fourth-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby.

Danzing Candy is a pretty fast colt with a penchant for being a closer. He’ll have a capable jockey, Mike Smith, to guide him in the Kentucky Derby. Smith won the Run for the Roses in 2005, and has finished in the top two in his last three races (two wins). He should be able to take control of a closer like Danzing Candy enough for a finish near the top spot at Churchill Downs.

Create a betting account now and get ready for a race of a lifetime in the Kentucky Derby.

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