NBA Playoff Odds Update – March 26, 2014

The Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat seem destined to meet in the Eastern Conference finals as their competition in the conference squabbles over the third-place seeding. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs continue their surge, becoming the Western Conference’s favorites to win it all, ahead of the LA Clippers and the Houston Rockets.

All this and more below in our weekly look at the way the odds to win the NBA Finals have twisted and turned in the past seven days.

Odds to Win NBA Finals

Slipping Favorites: Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat

[sc:NBA240banner ]The Pacers are 6-8 in March, but five of those wins were collected from sub-.500 teams (Boston, Philadelphia, Detroit, Utah). And yet, even in those wins, they were not winning in particularly convincing fashion, as illustrated by their 1-4 record against the spread. From a +250 price to win the NBA championship before March, the mighty Pacers now have odds of +350.

Meanwhile, their rivals from South Beach aren’t doing any better. The Heat are 7-7 in their last 14, with five of those losses coming on the road. Dwyane Wade’s knees and a thin interior are holding back the defending champions late in the season, and these factors could definitely haunt them in the playoffs. Oddsmakers are starting to adjust their prices to reflect this concerning issue, as the odds on the Heat to grab the Larry O’Brien trophy have fallen to +250 from +210 back in February.

Best in the West: San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs look unstoppable. Their 14 straight wins (and counting) cued oddsmakers to lower their price from +450 last week to +325. Popovitch’s team seems to be able to play with three of their aging stars out just about whenever it wants, without keeping the flow of wins going. Though the playoffs will grind down their top names, but their bench play and general dominance has seen them overtake the Pacers for the second shortest odds to win it all.

Best Value: LA Clippers, Houston Rockets

With the Spurs shooting themselves up the odds, the best value for futures bettors falls to the LA Clippers and the Houston Rockets, two teams priced at +1,000.

The Rockets have been hot this March, opening the month with five straight victories. Though they dropped three consecutive contests after that, they regrouped and won all of their next four despite missing Dwight Howard in three of those games because of ankle problems. Winning without Howard is huge for the Rockets, who have been able to lean on him inside on nights when James Harden has cooled, rare though those nights are.

As hot as the Rockets are, they’re lukewarm compared to the Clippers. The Staples Center tenants have a 9-1 SU record in their first 10 games of the month. Blake Griffin continues to play like there’s no tomorrow with March numbers of 25 PPG, 9 RPG, and 5 APG. However, the Clippers have a challenging four-game road trip ahead to end the month.

In both cases, these are teams that can beat anyone this season, and if they can carry their hot play into the extra season, the longer odds will be well worth cashing in on.
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