Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Preview – November 17, 2016

Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars Preview

Where: TDECU Stadium – Houston, Texas

When: Thursday, November 17, 8:00 PM ET

Line: Louisville Cardinals (-14) at Houston Cougars (+14) – view all NCAA Football odds and lines

TV Broadcast: ESPN

Writer’s Pick: Louisville Cardinals (-14)

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Betting on the Louisville Cardinals (-14)

Runaway Heisman Trophy favorite Lamar Jackson (-2,500) is coming off arguably the worst game of his season against Wake Forest. He completed just 14 of 26 passes for 145 yards with just one touchdown through the air and 153 yards on the ground as the Cardinals needed to come back from a 12-3 halftime deficit to beat Wake, 44-12.

This up-and-down play has been all too common from the Cards ever since their loss to Clemson. Blowout wins over NC State (54-13) and Boston College (52-7) were sandwiched in between much closer affairs against Duke (24-14) and Virginia (32-25). Including their failed cover against Wake, the Cards have now gone just 2-3 against the spread since that Clemson loss.

That inconsistent play may have been due to a lack of motivation and concentration following a loss that likely knocked them out of College Football Playoff contention. However, the fact that three prospective playoff teams all lost Saturday may have given the Cardinals renewed hope.

As their incredible 34-point fourth-quarter explosion against Wake showed, this Louisville team can be borderline unstoppable if it wants to be. The Cards are still comfortably No. 1 in the nation in scoring offense (49.6 points per game). Their defense (No. 6 in yards allowed and No. 19 in points allowed per game) is also incredibly talented.

If the Cards come out with the right mindset against Houston, they should have enough talent on both sides of the ball to comfortably take down the Cougs.

Betting on the Houston Cougars (-14)

The Cougars were touted as possible College Football Playoff contenders heading into the season, but they have fallen some way short of those expectations. Houston stands at 8-2 on the season, but is just 4-6 against the spread, and has failed to cover in its last five games. The Cougs, though, find themselves as heavy home underdogs for the visit of No. 3 Louisville.

Houston’s offense for the past two years has revolved around quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Ward was outstanding running the football last season, as he rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns. However, he hasn’t nearly been quite as effective with his feet this season. Despite rushing for three touchdowns, Ward has just 15 total rushing yards in his last three games (including sacks).

Ward – and the Houston offense as a whole – will need to play a perfect game and cut down on the turnovers in order to hang with a very dangerous Cardinals team. However, their recent performances aren’t particularly encouraging. The Cougars have committed an incredible 14 turnovers in their last five games.

Houston’s defense, though, has the talent and the athleticism to slow Jackson and the Cards offense down. The Cougs run defense is giving up just 2.76 yards per carry, No. 2 in the nation behind only Alabama.

Meanwhile, Houston’s home-field advantage has been excellent. The Cougs are a perfect 14-0 at home under head coach Tom Herman. They are just 6-8 against the spread, although they won outright in their last two games as home underdogs.

Writer’s Prediction

The best version of Louisville shows up as the Cards beat Houston, 42-24.

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